Risers and fallers: Which programs are going to move the needle?
Taking a look at teams with the best chances to over and underachieve their preseason billings
Note: This is an accompanying piece to the SID Sports Season Preview. There, you’ll find full team previews for all 136 FBS teams, conference predictions from a panel of college football Substackers and more.
Full, glorious Labor Day weekend kickoff is just a few short days away, with a whole host of games getting us started tomorrow night. So, let’s get in a final little bit of prognostication, shall we?
In case you haven’t noticed, I wrote a ton in my Season Preview magazine (now available for free downloads) about every team this season. And I ranked them across all of college football and across each conference.
But each year, there are programs that make us all look stupid. Florida State and Arizona State last year. TCU and USC in 2023. So on and so forth. We’ll revisit the Season Preview at the end of the year to see what I got right and wildly wrong (is it bad I’m more excited for the wrong ones?), but I’m calling my shots here. Three teams that are going to overperform compared to their preseason projections and three that will underperform.
Texas A&M
Overall Rank: 15th | SEC Rank: 6th
Returning Production: 7th | Overall Class Rank: 10th
It feels like no matter where you slot the Aggies, things are going to be wrong. I’m more optimistic than most, ranking Texas A&M at 15th compared to 19th in the AP Poll and 21st in the Coaches Poll, so I’m ready to get hurt again, no doubt.
And yes, I’ve heard that Texas A&M is the most overrated team by AP poll rankings in the last decade. So call me crazy to hop on the hype train. I’m calling for the Aggies to overperform and climb into their first College Football Playoff.
Why? Because I trust Mike Elko to fix a shaky defense. I trust Collin Klein to cook up another outstanding offense behind Marcel Reed, Le’Veon Moss, Amari Daniels, and K.C. Concepcion.
Yes, the Aggies have a brutal schedule, but that’s part of playing in the SEC, right? There’s unheralded star power across the roster and I think Bryan-College Station is going to be hopping even more this year. The hype is loud, and I think Elko’s boys are ready to answer the call. It’s time for them to show out. The offense already showed it can hang with anyone, annihilating any form of rush defense they came across. With reports of Reed’s passing vastly improving, even if you read between the camp propaganda, Texas A&M may have it’s most dangerous quarterback this side of Johnny Football.
If Elko gets this defense on the right track - I think he will - the Aggies are going to be arrow-up for most of the year.
Verdict: Overperform. SEC Championship buzz and an at-large CFP appearance.
Georgia
Overall Rank: 5th | SEC Rank: 2nd
Returning Production: 96th | Overall Class Rank: 2nd
Okay, last SEC team, I promise.
It’s hard to bet against Kirby Smart and his Bulldogs, especially with the tear they’ve been on capped off by two back-to-back titles. But a lot has changed since 2022.
When I put the Dawgs inside my Top Five, I’ll admit I felt a little slimy. They didn’t belong there, but I felt that way about most teams outside the top four if we’re being serious. I’d put them all in the 10-14 range if I could.
I’ve got very serious questions about this Georgia team. It starts with quarterback and Gunner Stockton. I get that it’s unfair to judge the kid based on a last-minute injury replacement in the literal College Football Playoff, but it feels like a drop off. And I’m not a Carson Beck fan (more on that later). Without a big-time rushing threat like those great Georgia teams had, I don’t see this iteration of the Dawgs posing much of a threat on offense compared to other title contenders.
The defense is one I’m feeling okay about on faith alone. There’s some stars like K.J. Bolden, but I’m got struck by fear. Perhaps it’s just with how good those dynastic defenses were, but I’m underwhelmed writing this. It feels like the Dawgs got to this point on name alone. To me, that’s a recipe for disappointment.
Verdict: Underperform. Finish the season ranked in the 20s range with more losses than you’re accustomed to.
Kansas
Overall Rank: 46th | Big 12 Rank: 9th
Returning Production: 63rd | Overall Class Rank: 76th
See, I told you this isn’t all an SEC list.
Each year, the Big 12 spits out some random team that becomes a major competitor that nobody expected. Allow me to introduce you to the Kansas Jayhawks.
They’re coached by an absolute gamer in the same vein as Curt Cignetti, just without the quotes - Lance Leipold. While the Jayhawks went a meager 5-7 last season, injuries and bad luck derailed the year.
Leipold is all in on Jalon Daniels, the fifth-year magician that will make your head spin with his fantastical play, both with his arm and his legs. Paired with one of the backs I’m most excited for in Daniel Hinshaw and a solid rusher in Leshon Williams, the Jayhawks will have a potent offense. I am concerned about the receivers, but a strong line and a strong running game has done wonders for Leipold’s Kansas program in years past.
The X-factor here is Daniels’s health. If he stays standing, look out. Kansas can hang with anyone and show the nation what they’ve missed out on. A strong front seven will allow Kansas to control games, and by that logic, allow Daniels to be the deciding factor. He’s got the talent to take over. I think he’s going to do that more this season and surprise everyone.
Verdict: Overperform. Battling for a trip to Jerryworld and the Big 12 title - and CFP bid by extension - until the very last second.
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SMU
Overall Rank: 12th | ACC Rank: 3rd
Returning Production: 41st | Overall Class Rank: 34th
I really hate to do this, I do. I love what Rhett Lashlee has done with SMU and how he’s positioned the program going forward. I just can’t with this season.
First off, forget Kevin Jennings’s performance in the playoff’s opening round against Penn State. That’s not his game and not what he should be judged on. He ranked 10th in the nation in EPA/dropback and took care of the ball every other game. He’s once again going to rank among the nation’s best.
I’m bullish on the Mustangs’ offense. Really, I am. Jennings will have a great stable of backs, plenty of quality targets and a strong enough offensive line to do damage. It’s the defense I’m concerned about.
Maybe it’s because Lashlee is an offensive mind, but I think the fact that SMU’s defense was absolutely lights out last year is lost on many people. It wasn’t the offense that took the Ponies to the playoff - it was the defense. They ranked seventh in EPA allowed and 15th in success rate allowed. It was a true breakout.
But is it sustainable? Only two full-time starters return. The transfer class is solid, especially in the secondary with corner Nyland Green, but I don’t think it can do enough. Regression is clearly in the cards here, but how much regression? In my eyes, too much for the offense to overcome.
Verdict: Underperform. Fall out of the ACC race by Week 11 due to some last-second blunders against sub-.500 conference foes (looking at you, Boston College).
Iowa
Overall Rank: 28th | Big Ten Rank: 8th
Returning Production: 62nd | Overall Class Rank: 35th
I feel like I’ve been saying it since the start of this newsletter way back in January 2023 - all Iowa needs to compete is a decent quarterback. Just show me average and I’ll see a true title contender, both in the Big Ten and beyond.
Ladies and gentlemen, Iowa has found that quarterback. Mark Gronowski from South Dakota State is bar none, the best quarterback to take the field in Iowa City that I can remember. He won the 2023 Walter Payton Award as the FCS’s best player. He comes with over 10,000 career passing yards and 93 touchdowns. Seven was his highest interception total in a season, with 15 as his lowest passing score output.
He’s a bona fide budding star. The best FCS player we’ve seen under center since Carson Wentz in my eyes (sorry, Shedeur). In the pro-style Shanahan offense installed by Tim Lester that has modernized the Iowa offense, Gronowski will have the leeway to take over games. And he can do that, but may require some adjustments to start.
Oh, and he’s got a Paul Parker-led defense behind him. Yes, there’s turnover across Iowa’s offense, but they have key playmakers back at all three levels. They’ll be fine. Add in a favorable schedule and you have the ingredients for this year’s Indiana run.
Verdict: Overperform. A trip to Indianapolis is a serious possibility when the Hawkeyes upset Oregon in early November.
Miami
Overall Rank: 10th | ACC Rank: 2nd
Returning Production: 54th | Overall Class Rank: 13th
See, I told you we’d circle back to Carson Beck, didn’t I?
Let’s start with this: Cam Ward was outstanding in this offense last season. Tyler Van Dyke did well in it previously. Shannon Dawson has a super quarterback friendly system that will bode well for Beck. Except when it doesn’t. To me, Beck is someone that plays best in structure, while Cam Ward’s heroic plays were the ones that boosted the Hurricanes into a title contender.
Plus, you have to consider Beck’s injury that kept him out of Spring camp and limited his reps in the Fall. He’s still learning this system and his receiving corps. A receiving corps that’s also recovering from a host of injuries. The running game is suspect without a proven leader, but a strong line should help the offense move.
All of that is just concerns about Miami’s offense, the stronger of two units. What about their defense that struggled to stop a paper bag last year? Corey Hetherman has authored some great defenses, but building a unit takes time. He’s got some pieces, but the best defense coaches can’t fix this in one season. In my eyes, Miami is dripping with potential but just won’t be able to realize it.
Verdict: Underperform. Questionable game management, a hot-and-cold offense and a shaky defense drop the Canes to single-digit wins and out of the ACC race by the time the CFP is pushing out polls.
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