Looking back on the Season Preview
Predictions are no fun if you don't make fun of them, right?
Hello everyone and welcome to the offseason! The season has fully come to a close and it’s time to shift from the on-field topics to a more off-field focus. If this is your first offseason with SID Sports, expect less posts, but more thoughtful ones. I’ll generally post once a week on Wednesdays and have the potential for a second post if there’s any noteworthy breaking news. I already have a couple of posts in the works, as well as a new series that will likely premier soon.
Without a doubt, this season was unlike any other on SID Sports. That started off with the Season Preview magazine I released ahead of kickoff, with 336 pages and over 125,000 words looking at every aspect of the season to come. And then we were treated to the most chaotic season since the advent of the playoff.
What a year it was!
With that said, it’s time to see if we were actually any good at prognosticating and predicting what was to come (spoiler alert: not really). And, I’ll also crown the biggest CFB ball-knower that took part in the voting!
For those of you new to the newsletter, welcome in! Below are links to the two materials I’ll be looking at: the Season Preview magazine and my article details three teams I expected to over-perform and three I expected to under-perform.
With that covered, let’s start with the Risers and Fallers!
Risers and Fallers
Like I mentioned above, I detailed three teams I thought were going to improve where I projected them and three I expected to finish below expectations. We’ll go through all of them, going in the same order as I did initially.
Texas A&M
The offense already showed it can hang with anyone, annihilating any form of rush defense they came across. With reports of [Marcel] Reed’s passing vastly improving, even if you read between the camp propaganda, Texas A&M may have it’s most dangerous quarterback this side of Johnny Football.
Verdict: Overperform. SEC Championship buzz and an at-large CFP appearance.- Risers and Fallers, August 27, 2025
This is my big victory lap, I had Texas A&M as a team with playoff aspirations moreso than most other outlets I saw. And Marcel Reed did turn into one of the Aggies’ most dangerous quarterbacks, even garnering Heisman hype for a few weeks. I put a lot of hope in the Texas A&M defense, though, and that didn’t really work out. Plus, that verdict hit the nail on the head, didn’t it?
Georgia
I’ve got very serious questions about this Georgia team. It starts with quarterback and Gunner Stockton…Without a big-time rushing threat like those great Georgia teams had, I don’t see this iteration of the Dawgs posing much of a threat on offense compared to other title contenders.The defense is one I’m feeling okay about on faith alone. There’s some stars like K.J. Bolden, but I’m not struck by fear. Perhaps it’s just with how good those dynastic defenses were, but I’m underwhelmed writing this. It feels like the Dawgs got to this point on name alone. To me, that’s a recipe for disappointment.
Verdict: Underperform. Finish the season ranked in the 20s range with more losses than you’re accustomed to.
For every hit, there’s a miss. Gunner Stockton looked great, even without the big rushing threat I was hoping for. But Nate Frazier and Stockton himself played well. And the Dawgs’ defense was strong. Oof on that verdict, though, as Georgia won the SEC and a bye in the playoff.
Kansas
The X-factor here is [quarterback Jalon] Daniels’s health. If he stays standing, look out. Kansas can hang with anyone and show the nation what they’ve missed out on. A strong front seven will allow Kansas to control games, and by that logic, allow Daniels to be the deciding factor. He’s got the talent to take over. I think he’s going to do that more this season and surprise everyone.
Verdict: Overperform. Battling for a trip to Jerryworld and the Big 12 title - and CFP bid by extension - until the very last second.
So Kansas didn’t really pan out either. They finished under .500 again at 5-7 and didn’t compete for the Big 12 championship for a second. And that’s with Daniels being healthy the entire season too! I guess I didn’t account for the fact that the Kansas defense was as porous as a sieve and there was no hope for Daniels to keep up.
SMU
Maybe it’s because [head coach Rhett] Lashlee is an offensive mind, but I think the fact that SMU’s defense was absolutely lights out last year is lost on many people. It wasn’t the offense that took the Ponies to the playoff - it was the defense. They ranked seventh in EPA allowed and 15th in success rate allowed. It was a true breakout.
But is it sustainable? Only two full-time starters return. The transfer class is solid, especially in the secondary with corner Nyland Green, but I don’t think it can do enough. Regression is clearly in the cards here, but how much regression? In my eyes, too much for the offense to overcome.
Verdict: Underperform. Fall out of the ACC race by Week 11 due to some last-second blunders against sub-.500 conference foes (looking at you, Boston College).
Harsh, but true. Especially since Mustangs quarterback Kevin Jennings actually improved his numbers from last season. But the 2024 SMU defense was the real stars of the show and, as I pointed out, they wouldn’t have enough to make a return trip to the playoff without that standout defensive play. However, SMU was in the thick of the ACC race and didn’t have a blunder like I predicted, though tiebreakers sent 7-5 Duke to the ACC Championship instead of SMU so maybe that counts in a roundabout way?
Iowa
I feel like I’ve been saying it since the start of this newsletter way back in January 2023 - all Iowa needs to compete is a decent quarterback. Just show me average and I’ll see a true title contender, both in the Big Ten and beyond.
Ladies and gentlemen, Iowa has found that quarterback. Mark Gronowski from South Dakota State is bar none, the best quarterback to take the field in Iowa City that I can remember. He won the 2023 Walter Payton Award as the FCS’s best player. He comes with over 10,000 career passing yards and 93 touchdowns. Seven was his highest interception total in a season, with 15 as his lowest passing score output.
Verdict: Overperform. A trip to Indianapolis is a serious possibility when the Hawkeyes upset Oregon in early November.
Gronowski didn’t turn out to be that guy. He was largely ineffective in the passing game, as all Iowa quarterbacks seem to be. But hey, at least Iowa kept that Oregon game close? Even if Iowa upset Oregon, there was no way they were supplanting either Indiana or Ohio State in Indianapolis.
Miami
…you have to consider [quarterback Carson] Beck’s injury that kept him out of Spring camp and limited his reps in the Fall. He’s still learning this system and his receiving corps. A receiving corps that’s also recovering from a host of injuries. The running game is suspect without a proven leader, but a strong line should help the offense move.
Verdict: Underperform. Questionable game management, a hot-and-cold offense and a shaky defense drop the Canes to single-digit wins and out of the ACC race by the time the CFP is pushing out polls.
Time to eat some crow, isn’t it? To be fair, Miami was out of the ACC title race by the time polls came around, but the Canes rattled off a stellar end to the season, plucked a playoff bid from Notre Dame and almost won the whole thing. Granted, it was more because of their defense than Beck’s play, and tailback Mark Fletcher Jr. took over in the stretch run to establish the run and be the team’s proven leader.
That was fun, wasn’t it? Now, let’s delve into the Season Preview magazine in full. Since there was so much in there, I’m going to just quick hit a few interesting notes here.
My initial top 10? Clemson, Texas, Ohio State, Penn State, Georgia, Alabama, Oregon, LSU, Notre Dame, Miami. Of that group, half missed the playoffs and two (Penn State and LSU) fired their head coaches. National champion Indiana clocked in at 24th.
Of my preseason bracket, only Georgia, Ohio State, Oregon, Miami and Alabama made the field. I called Miami getting in at 10, for whatever that counts for.
My Hot Seat Roundup of coaches likely to be fired had 16 names on it. Eight of those - Sam Pittman, Mark Stoops, Brian Kelly, Brent Pry, Hugh Freeze, Justin Wilcox, Mike Gundy and Trent Dilfer - all got the can. Two others- Luke Fickell and Mike Norvell - will be on that seat again heading into 2026. I’ll call a 50 percent hit rate on firings and 63 percent hit rate on hot seat levels a win. Notable coaches that have played their way off the list are Virginia’s Tony Elliott and Old Dominion’s Ricky Rahne.
Of the Player of the Year voting, only Jeremiah Smith (first in SID Sports, sixth in Heisman) and Jeremiyah Love (fifth in SID Sports, third in Heisman) received Heisman votes.
Utah was named Team of the Year, which is used to gauge which team will surprise and make the biggest run. The Utes did not make the College Football Playoff and likely wouldn’t have the same votes in a postseason poll.
Of the three postseason Player of the Year awards held at SID Sports - overall Player of the Year, Offensive and Defensive, none of the three winners earned any votes in the preseason polling for the awards.
Snippets of truth
Here are a few of my favorite takes - both good and bad - sprinkled throughout the magazine:
Alright, I’ll admit, I bought into some of the Jackson Arnold hype. But come on, “limitless potential?” Arnold looked barely pedestrian when he had the offense and Daniels wasn’t much better. Deuce Knight would’ve been the guy if Freeze stuck around, but the Tigers are turning to Byrum Brown to lead them closer to glory.
At this point, I’m legally required to put a BGSU note, right? And boy, was I right about Gideon Lampron. The junior was a menace, with 119 tackles, 2.5 sacks, two forced fumbles and a pass defensed. He’s since transferred to Colorado and will be an elite linebacker there.
“It’ll be tough sledding for whoever wins the job?” Bear Bachmeier had no such tough sledding. As a true freshman, Bachmeier balled out and had the Cougars on the doorstep of the College Football Playoff. Serious miss here.
Listen, it’s easy to clown on picking Clemson as the top team in hindsight, but I stand by that take. Especially considering their defensive line. Who could’ve foreseen all four of these guys underperforming? Sure, Heldt dealt with injuries throughout the season, but there was no reason fro Woods and Parker in particular to not wreck any line they came across.
Hawaii’s Alejado may have eclipsed his four high school picks with nine as a freshman, but the undersized lefty was dynamite. He’s a big reason why the Rainbow Warriors may become trendy picks to compete in the new Mountain West next season. And, yes, things certainly got fun again in Honolulu.
How’s a ranked nine-win season for a second year jump? Willy Fritz delivered in a big way in his second year at Houston and has the Cougars ready to compete. His offense made Conner Weigman look like a quality quarterback and Fritz signed the highest rated recruit in Houston history in five-star quarterback Keisean Henderson. The clock may be ticking, but Fritz is well ahead of the sands of time.
The Calgorithm was thrown to the wayside by W1ndiana and Fernando Mendoza. Cerebral is certainly a way to describe it and he remained one of the nation’s most efficient passers in Shanahan’s offense. Except, nobody could’ve guessed it would’ve gone from Mendoza being one of the nation’s most underrated passers to Heisman winner. And did I really say he wouldn’t be as explosive as Kurtis Rourke?
When you consider the fact that pretty much all of these players missed significant time last season, you can see how Iowa State wasn’t able to hang in the Big 12 race. Injuries suck.
Yeah, I’m hiding my face in shame at this take on future CUSA Champion and 10-win team, Kennesaw State.
Injuries derailed Brown’s season, but the Louisville rushing attack was the only strength for the team while Miller Moss struggled. They were surely a “dynamic” attack.
I’ll take the L here on my most repeated take leading into the season. Moving along.
Considering Missouri State finished middle of the table in the CUSA and earned a bowl bid, Bead and I were right.
You could certainly trust Colton Joseph in 2025 and the quarterback is still a budding star. Too bad he’s off to Wisconsin now, where transfer quarterbacks go to die.
As it turns out, no, he could not. Sam Houston finished last in Conference USA with only one win in-league.
Byrum Brown was healthy and an absolute star for the Bulls. That early season run that had USF in the playoff conversation was magical. Too bad they faded down the stretch, but the Bulls were fun the entire time.
Keeler and the Owls didn’t complete a full turnaround immediately, but the Owls did a lot better than anyone expected at 5-7. There’s momentum in Philadelphia for the first time in a long time.
We’ll end here on a Texas Tech two-for-one. Who could’ve guessed that defense would be that good? Surely not I.
Crowning the top ball-knower
Finally, we have the award you’ve all been waiting for. Crowning the Substack creator that is the biggest ball-knower. Way back in July, I put out a call for creators to fill out a ballot with the preseason awards as well as ranking each conference top to bottom. Since we’ve already established nobody hit on any of the awards, we’re going to look at conference scoring.
Here’s how I came up with the numbers:
3 points for selecting the correct champion
2 points for selecting a conference championship participant as a top-two team
1 point for selecting the team in the correct final standings point.
For teams that finished in a tie, the point was given. For example, the ACC had a five-way tie for second place. If a voter pegged any of those teams in that range of 2-6, they got the point. Make sense? I hope so.
Also, for some reason, I never voted in my own poll. Whoops. So, we’re just ranking the top ball-knowers of the guest voters.
Lane Fobbs - 49
Tyler Schuster - 45
HOOT STATE - 44; Craig Meyer - 43
Gary "G3" Garrison - 42; Ian Boyd - 42
Adam Firebaugh - 41
Andrew Steele - 40; Brian J. Shaw - 40; Road to CFB - 40
Brian Lennon - 38
Andrew Mintner - 36
VP - 33
Cameron Morgan - 32
Dan Plagens - 31
Congrats Lane on being the official SID Sports Top Ball-Knower! Drop Lane a follow if you haven’t already!
And, some final stats on how our panel voted for statheads like myself out there:
Only one voter, Ian Boyd, called Duke winning the ACC Championship. Boyd repeated that by flying solo and picking Western Michigan to raise the MAC Championship. He’s actually the only one to peg either of the two championship contending teams in either conference.
Boise State (13) was our most-selected conference champion.
Andrew Mintner was the only one to call the Indiana Big Ten Championship. All but three had Ohio State making the trip to Lucas Oil Stadium, most commonly against Penn State (10) or Oregon (6).
As expected, the Big 12 was a crapshoot. Congrats to Lane Fobbs and Tyler Schuster for buying into the Texas Tech hype!
CUSA champion Kennesaw State received zero championship votes. In fact, the Owls were picked last in the conference in 63 percent of ballots.
Only two voters picked Georgia to win the SEC crown, VP and Lane Fobbs. Nine others had the Dawgs finishing second in the conference, though, so it wasn’t an entire miss.
Have any questions, ideas, article pitches, or information? With the new Substack features, you can directly message me! Hit the button below to send me a message, or reach out via email to griffin@sid-sports.com, or find us on your favorite social media platform like Facebook, Instagram, Substack Notes and Bluesky.
This is good stuff. Special shoutout to Texas Texh for carrying me this season! Lol
After a season full of making takes that I wasn’t too sure of, it’s good to see a few made it through to someone lol