Hits and Misses: Reviewing my preseason predictions

Making predictions is no fun if you can't clown on yourself, right?

Jan 24, 2025

SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings runs for a touchdown in a 34-31 loss to Clemson in the ACC Championship, Dec. 7, 2024. Credit: TigerNet.com on Flickr.

Monday night, we saw the College Football season draw to a close as the Ohio State Buckeyes raised the College Football Playoff National Championship trophy in Atlanta as the undisputed best team in the nation.

We’ve come a long way, through all the twists and turns, upsets and disappointments, blowouts and overtime thrillers of the 2024 college football season. Truly, it was one for the ages.

You may remember, way back in the dog days of summer, I released conference-by-conference season previews. As the last article before we head into the offseason (and a break next week - so no new SID Sports until the first week of February), let’s take a look back at those very same preseason predictions and identify three of the biggest hits and three of the biggest misses.

Hit - SMU

“The only reason SMU is in this section [Let’s Make a Run] is because of their returning production - namely Stone. If they can build on a very strong 2023 in a winnable ACC, they have a shot. Their schedule isn’t too bad, getting Florida State at home and avoiding Clemson. SMU has the path to surprise in Year 1.” - ACC Preview, June 12, 2024

I was high on the Mustangs coming into this season, but even I didn’t anticipate Playoff and ACC Championship bids in Year 1.

Now, you may notice I pointed out Preston Stone as a high point ahead of the season. I still stand by that take and think Stone could be a great quarterback, even at the Power Four level. I mean, just look at his 2023 statline: 206-for-344, 3,197 yards, 28 touchdowns and six interceptions. His first year as a starter was stellar, and he didn’t look bad in his season-opening action.

The shakeup came from Kevin Jennings looking like a seasoned veteran and outplaying the incumbent Stone. Credit to Rhett Lashlee for recognizing he had two quarterbacks riddled with potential and letting them compete in a strange two-quarterback system for the first few weeks. But Jennings was the right move and his dynamic play carried the Mustangs as far as it could.

What I really didn’t count on from SMU, though, was how balanced the team would turn out to be. Brashard Smith was lights out with 1,332 yards and 14 touchdowns on the season - and that’s just rushing. He added another 327 yards and four scores receiving and was a major factor alongside Jennings that let the Mustangs run through the opposition.

The defense was borderline great until a late season collapse. Still, the Mustangs were one of the nation’s best rushing defenses and finished 32nd in the nation in scoring defense. Not too bad for a team I thought would be all gas no brakes.

So, maybe not the most barreled-up hit, but a hit nonetheless.

Miss - Michigan

“The defense is going to have some talent back in defensive linemen Mason Graham. But this is an inexperienced team, which often doesn’t translate to title runs. Look for Michigan to regress from last year, but stay in the Big 10 title race until The Game.” - Big Ten Preview, June 27, 2024

Yeah, I really said that. “Stay in the Big Ten title race until The Game?” Seriously?

Apparently, the quarterback room of Alex Orji, Davis Warren and Jack Tuttle didn’t scare me off. It should have because boy were they putrid. The room combined for 1,678 yards, a 61.7 completion percentage, 12 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. None of the three were affective at all and that directly led to Michigan dropping five regular season games.

But it wasn’t just the passing game. The running game also struggled at points. Star tailback - and College Football 25 Cover Athlete Donovan Edwards - was showing off a disappearing act for most of the season. Kalel Mullings was a good surprise, but he isn’t a Blake Corum that can just take over a game.

I did call the defense right. Sure, they dealt with some injuries, but Mason Graham was a stud, especially in the win over Ohio State. Wink Martindale had a great start to his tenure in Ann Arbor, but now the defense is going to go through what the offense did and get stripped of all their talent by the NFL Draft.

In all honesty, if the Wolverines had a competent quarterback under center, they probably would’ve competed for the conference title for a majority of the season. But those lines are damning, even if you have a great defense.

Hit - USC

“I’ll be the first to say: I don’t think Lincoln Riley at USC is working…First, Alex Grinch’s defense was akin to football terrorism. Somehow, they were able to squander two seasons with Caleb Williams with little to nothing to show for it. Now, both Grinch and Williams are gone.” - Big Ten Preview, June 27, 2024

Maybe a half-hit? Near miss? Either way, I expected USC to be a middling team this year.

Pretty much what I predicted happened - the offense without Caleb Williams took a major step back and the defense looked like a competent unit that was actually decent at time.

My concerns are still standing, though. Who is the quarterback in Los Angeles? Miller Moss couldn’t bring back the flash from last season’s bowl game and Jayden Maiava wasn’t much better. Maiava is back, but Moss is gone to Louisville in the portal. For a Lincoln Riley coached team, that’s starting to get really concerning. Especially when the quarterback battle factors to be between Maiava and former five-star journeyman Sam Huard.

It’s strange - I don’t feel any different about USC than I did earlier this season when writing the preseason projections. There’s serious concerns on the offensive side of the ball - which is supposed to be Riley’s wheelhouse. Especially with the quarterback position. D’Anton Lynn is always going to coach a solid defense, but solid can’t get the job done in the Big Ten with how competitive the conference has become.

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Miss - Oklahoma

“I expect the Sooners to be more of a defense-first team, which could play better in the SEC than in the Big 12. The combo of linebacker Danny Stutsman and defensive back Billy Bowman Jr. is going to be a nightmare for a lot of offenses. If Arnold plays like he flashed last year against Kansas State and in the Alamo Bowl, Oklahoma is going to be a very tough out.” - SEC Preview, August 27, 2024

Woof. That’s bad.

While the “if” talking about Jackson Arnold is carrying a lot of weight, my predictions really didn’t work out. Like, at all.

In fact, all of these projections are laughable.

A defense-first Sooners playing better in the SEC than Big 12? Yeah, that didn’t happen. Oklahoma’s first season in the SEC was a disaster at 6-7 overall and just 2-6 in-conference. The defense was the bright spot of this Sooner team, but that’s just because the rest of it was so bad.

Though, to be fair, Stutsman had a great season as the Substack Linebacker of the Year award winner with 110 tackles. Bowman was also good, but teams mostly avoided the cornerback.

Hit - Iowa State

“I’ll be the first to admit, I didn’t think Iowa State had much life left in the Matt Campbell era. Turns out, I was wrong. Iowa State has a budding star under center in Rocco Becht, who finished 37th in the nation in QBR as a true freshman…Also of note: their defense was surprisingly solid last season and, as expected, returns a lot of production. This was a young team in 2023 that is primed and ready for a step in 2024.” - Big 12 Preview, July 3, 2024

That’s pretty nail on the head, isn’t it?

Becht struggled at times, but he really asserted himself down the stretch as the defense started to falter. He took a step back in quarterback rating - going from 150.7 to 138.1, but still put together a really solid season with 3,505 yards, 25 touchdowns and nine interceptions.

Part of that is due to his stable of NFL-caliber receivers in Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins, but give credit to Becht where it’s due. He had a great season.

Speaking of great seasons, the Cyclone defense was virtually impossible to score on for most of the season before they sprung a leak down the stretch. They allowed just 22.9 points per game on the season and were mostly lights out aside from a few wild shootouts. Time will tell on who all the Cyclones return for 2025, but Iowa State had a great season and are really building to be a solid program.

Miss - Arizona State

“Our first bowl battler actually has an excuse: the previous administration dug a massive hole. Arizona State is going to be better than last season if not just because they started four different quarterbacks, but Kenny Dillingham has his work cut out for him…I think they win more than the three games they did last year, but a bowl would be a welcome surprise.” - Big 12 Preview, July 3, 2024

I wasn’t the only one that missed on Arizona State, was I?

Either way, wow was that a miss.

Credit to Kenny Dillingham because this was one of the predictions I felt strongest about. But, really? “A bowl would be a welcome surprise?” How about a conference championship and a playoff bid?

Yes, the Big 12 is a chaos-breeding machine, especially in its current state. But the Sun Devils really came out of nowhere. Cam Skattebo had been outstanding previously, but Sam Leavitt looked like a completely different quarterback from his action at Michigan State. The team looked motivated and excited to play together.

And all of that with the program down in the dumps following a nightmare Herm Edwards tenure. If Dillingham’s Arizona State can recapture even a modicum of the magic from this season in 2025, it’s time to back up a Brinks truck to keep Dilingham in Tempe.

What I’m Reading:

Three-Point Stance by Tyler Schuster: Three-Point Stance is your favorite independent college football newsletter. Come for in-depth analysis and bold commentary, stay for the jokes and memes. An idea hatched after years of 12-hour days glued to the couch, Tyler Schuster puts his passion for the sport on full display, delivering big-picture ideas, weekly previews and gambling nuggets directly to your inbox.

An idea hatched after years of 12-hour days glued to the couch, Tyler Schuster puts his passion for the sport on full display, delivering big-picture ideas, weekly previews and gambling nuggets directly to your inbox.

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Tailgators Setup by Brian Lennon, John Crimella, and Gary McDaniel: I’ll be a little selfish on this one and plug a great college football podcast that I was lucky enough to join the show during the season to talk UEC and SID Sports! Brian, John and Gary are a ton of fun to listen to and break down the weekend to come in a very easy to digest and entertaining way. Be sure to tune into the Tailgators' Setup podcast and subscribe for more great content from them!

Split Zone Duo by Alex Kirshner, Steven Godfrey, and Richard Johnson: You can't beat Alex, Richard and Godfrey. They're on the front lines breaking news and creating the best content in the game. I 100 percent recommend SZD for anyone into college football and Steven Godfrey hating your team. They’re mostly a podcast publication, but sometimes being able to listen to three well-informed guys talking about college football is what you need in your life.