2025 Games of the Slot: Conference Championships
Breaking down each and every conference championship game
Folks, somehow the regular season is in the rearview mirror. Time really flew by, didn’t it?
With that, it means that we’re gearing up for some hardware to officially be on the line. That’s right, it’s Conference Championship Weekend.
Yesterday, we took a look at how each conference title bout can affect the playoff picture. Today, let’s just focus on why each individual game is going to be a ton of fun.
I’ll still organize it as a typical Games of the Slot article based on kickoff times, but there’s no multi-box options here. Each game is getting the full treatment, as it should. No conference will be ignored! As always, times are all in Eastern.
Friday Night
Troy at 18 James Madison (7 p.m., ESPN)
Troy punched their ticket to this game last week with a win over Southern Miss and the Trojans will enter as serious underdogs against a very good JMU team. It’ll be the Trojan defense that has to pull through for the upset to take shape. Especially when Troy’s offense ranks just 79th in Net EPA/play and doesn’t have a guy that can take over the game. So, let’s see if a Troy defense that ranks 40th in success rate and 33rd in Net EPA/drive can slow down the James Madison offense. If that happens, it’ll be due to a diverse pass rush headlined by edge rusher Donnie Smith and his nine sacks getting home and linebacker Jordan Stringer shutting down the Dukes rushing attack.
For James Madison, you can’t get caught looking ahead at a potential playoff bid. You also can’t let this game get too close if you want into the dance, so style points are on the table. On paper, the Dukes should roll through this to their first Sun Belt Championship with ease. After all, James Madison ranks seventh in Net EPA/play, while Troy is 71st. The disparity is even larger in success rate, where JMU slots in at third and Troy at 87th. I don’t foresee much issues for the Duke defense (fourth in Net EPA/play) against a rough Troy offense (79th in Net EPA/play), so it will be up to Alonza Barnett III and company to get past a talented defense.
Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State (7 p.m., CBS Sports Network)
Kennesaw State’s turnaround this year under Jerry Mack is nothing short of remarkable. To take a program that looked like their FBS move was an abject failure to a potential 10 win season in just one year is remarkable. The Owls have done it on the back of a strong offense, ranking 36th in Net EPA/play. Quarterback Amari Odom has been the engine for that offense with solid passing numbers and emerging as a rushing threat for the first time in his career. With a very athletic set of playmakers, headlined by receiver Gabriel Benyard, Kennesaw can score at will. But can they stop the opposing offenses? That’s been the concern this year, and it’s come back to bite the Owls.
Case number one: the regular season meeting where Jacksonville State ran for 252 yards, put up 35 points and toppled the Owls to send the CUSA championship to Jacksonville, Alabama. JSU is also led by a first-year head coach in Charles Kelly who has kept the Gamecocks’ rushing identity intact, letting Cam Cook bully his way past opposing defenses. The junior already has 1,581 rushing yards and 15 scores, so will be a major factor in this contest. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if Jacksonville State doens’t pass the ball at all. The Gamecocks have the 18th best rushing offense in the nation by Net EPA/play, while Kennesaw State’s rush defense ranks 111th. That’s as big of a discrepancy between units that you’ll see all weekend.
See how conference championship week affects the playoff in this week’s Bracketology article!
19 North Texas at 20 Tulane (8 p.m., ABC)
This is the big ticket Friday game.
North Texas knows who they are: they’re going to light up the scoreboard. Drew Mestemaker leads the nation in passing yards, ranks fifth in EPA/dropback and has a stellar 29-to-4 touchdown to interception ratio. He’s got an elite wideout, Wyatt Young, that has already eclipsed 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns. Think this offense is all built around the pass? Think again. Tailback Caleb Hawkins is shredding defenses that want to drop back in coverage to stop Mestemaker, with 1,216 rushing yards and an FBS-best 23 rushing scores. The Mean Green have the nation’s best offense in terms of success rate, best by Net EPA/drive and third best by Net EPA/play. They’re going to try to just race through the Tulane defense early and often. Is there defense good? Eh, not really. But that doesn’t matter when you’re nearly averaging a fifty-burger on offense.
Tulane, though, has the star power. Mestemaker is getting a star turn, but Green Wave quarterback Jake Retzlaff was battling for the playoff last year, willing his BYU team to Big 12 contention on his own. He’s playing that same Superman role for Tulane this season, leading the team in passing and rushing. When Retzlaff is on, the Tulane offense is nearly impossible to stop. When he’s missing and making mistakes, Tulane is a very gettable team. Especially without the elite-level defenses we’ve seen in the past. Ranking just 70th in both passing and rushing EPA/play worries me against the North Texas offense’s firepower. To win this, Tulane is going to have to win a shootout against the nation’s best offense. We’ve seen Retzlaff pull off crazier, so I won’t rule that out.
UNLV at Boise State (8 p.m., FOX)
Winners of their last four games, UNLV is playing great ball under coach Dan Mullen. As always, Mullen’s team is much more successful on offense with him cooking up a great spread attack. Anthony Colandrea has seemingly cut down on the head-scratching plays that took away from his great off-schedule play at Virginia, and is having his best statistical season with the Rebels. He ranks 32nd in ESPN QBR leading an offense that ranks eighth in passing EPA/play. The UNLV offense is emblematic of their Las Vegas home, though, often going for the chunk plays. They rank 21st in the nation in yards per play because they’ve connected more often than not, but that’s a dangerous recipe heading into the postseason where you see a lot better defenses than most of the Mountain West is trotting out.
Boise State has one of those defenses, even if it isn’t grading out that way on paper. Well, against the pass they are, ranking 10th in passing EPA/play. It’s the toughest defense Colandrea and the UNLV offense has seen this season. Granted, the Rebels could just decide to pound the rock towards the Broncos’ 115th ranked rushing defense by EPA/play. The same can be said on the flip side, with Boise State looking to exploit a UNLV defense that ranks dead last in rushing EPA/play. Dylan Riley and Sire Gaines are going to feast. Better yet for the Broncos, quarterback Maddux Madsen will be in the lineup after missing the past three games with a lower leg injury.
Saturday - 12 p.m. EST
5 Texas Tech v. 8 BYU (ABC)
We’ll start with the visiting half of the Big 12 battle: the BYU Cougars. With the noise around head coach Kalani Sitake leaving quieted, BYU can focus entirely on pulling the upset and not repeating the 29-7 loss to Texas Tech in Lubbock just over a month ago. Granted, BYU was trusting Bear Bachmeier entirely that game to make magic happen on offense, as tailback L.J. Martin was hobbled with an injury. Now, with Martin - the Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year - fully healthy, the Cougar offense is going to be at full strength unlike their last meeting. Is that enough to flip the scales? Bachmeier has played even better since that loss, so maybe the growth is what the Cougars need. Still, BYU’s defense is going to have to find answers. Texas Tech has one of the nation’s best offenses and posted 368 yards in their last matchup.
The Red Raiders can’t get complacent if they want the Big 12 crown. Sure, they’re likely in the playoff regardless of the result, but you know this mercenary squad wants all the hardware. And while they have the win over BYU in their back pocket, we already discussed how BYU can flip the script. For Texas Tech, the recipe is simple: do what you did last time. That means letting your star linebackers, Jacob Rodriguez and Ben Roberts, shut down Martin. Then, let the pass rushers like Romello Height and David Bailey, harrass Bachmeier and make him uncomfortable. Texas Tech’s offense hasn’t been slowed much at all this season, so keep the varied attack rolling. Don’t overthink this, Texas Tech, and you have the path to success. If they get away from that, BYU is going to capitalize.
Western Michigan v. Miami (OH) (ESPN)
The MAC is perfect - except for its tiebreakers. How did a Miami team that had its only two conference losses come to teams they ended the season tied in the standings with - Ohio and Toledo - make the MAC Championship game? Paging John Steinbrecher to fix this!
Either way, the RedHawks find themselves heading to Detroit anyway. The big story surrounding the program is quarterback Dequan Finn stepping aside two weeks ago to focus on preparing for the NFL Draft, leaving Miami without a leader down a crucial stretch in the season. It seems like they’ve found their guy in freshman Thomas Gotkowski, who led Miami on their season-closing hot streak. Now, those two losses to Ohio and Toledo came right after Finn left the team, so you can assume Chuck Martin and the Miami coaching staff were struggling to find who could take over. Once Gotkowski eclipsed senior Henry Hesson, things looked up. Still, the RedHawk offense hasn’t been looking like a championship-caliber unit as a whole. Granted, Gotkowski has led Miami to putting up 37 and 45 points the last two games, so maybe the RedHawks can pull this off.
Western Michigan has been the class of the MAC all season, sweeping the conference awards. Quarterback Broc Lowery has been a dual-threat master with 875 yards and 14 rushing scores to go with his 1,572 passing yards, seven scores and two picks. Based on that statline, you know the Broncos are going to try to pound the rock. After all, they rank 25th in rushing success rate and have four rushers averaging at least 4.0 yards per carry. More importantly in this, though, is the elite Western Michigan defense. I hyped up Gotkowski and the Miami offense just one paragraph earlier. Well, it’s time to crush that hype. Western ranks 13th in defensive EPA/play in the nation. They have the second-best defense in the MAC behind Toledo, who held Miami to a paltry 222 yards and just three points when the two squared off.
Wondering where these rankings are coming from? Check out this week’s SID Sports Top 25!
3-4 p.m. EST
9 Alabama v. 3 Georgia (4 p.m., ABC)
Is it time to start ringing alarm bells on the Georgia offense? The past two weeks have me feeling worried. A 35-point output two weeks ago isn’t bad, until you consider it was against Charlotte, who allows 36.3 points per game. That’s right, the 1-11 Charlotte 49ers held the 11-1 Georgia Bulldogs to less points than they normally allow. Couple that with just 19 points against a Georgia Tech defense that allows 25.0 points per game, and I’m concerned. The Georgia fan base isn’t the most satisfied with offensive coordinator Mike Bobo, so these aren’t just my concerns. It’s not all bad news for the Dawgs, though. The defense has been very good, even if they’re not up to the elite standard set by the repeat-champion teams. But are they good enough to stop the Alabama passing attack? Advanced stats say no, with Georgia ranking 83rd in passing EPA/play on defense. There’s also Kirby’s 1-7 record against the Tide to worry about.
It may feel like Alabama has all the cards in this matchup, but this is the SEC Championship. It’s going to be a dead heat until the finish. Just like the earlier season matchup where the Tide eked out a 24-21 victory in Athens. Similar to Texas Tech, Alabama has the blueprint to get the win: turn Ty Simpson loose and let the defense stonewall a shaky Georgia offense. Except there’s one problem with that: Simpson. Not to say he’s been bad, but we’ve seen a serious drop off in the junior’s play in recent weeks. Two of his three worst games by ESPN QBR have been Alabama’s final two games. The Tide tried to find a way to lose against a pitiful Auburn team last weekend in the Iron Bowl, only to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. But Simpson even played poorly against FCS Eastern Illinois, putting up his worst line of the season with two of his four interceptions and just 149 yards. If Georgia sees that, the Dawgs are going to feast.
6-8 p.m. EST
1 Ohio State v. 2 Indiana (8 p.m., FOX)
Let’s take a second to admire the fact that Indiana is even here in the first place, sitting at a perfect 12-0 and may legitimately be the best team in the nation. It’s the Hoosiers’ first Big Ten Championship appearance in 58 years. Let’s also consider this is the first No. 1 vs. No. 2 conference championship of the CFP era. And, like it or not (justice for Diego Pavia), the winning quarterback is your likely Heisman winner. So, even though both Ohio State and Indiana are locked into likely byes in the playoff, this game still means a lot.
This isn’t last year’s untested Indiana. The 2025 Hoosiers have aced all their tests including a road win at Autzen Stadium over the Oregon Ducks and a come-from-behind miracle catch by Omar Cooper Jr. to stave off a still very talented if not great record-wise Penn State. Indiana is at the top of almost every meaningful stat - first in EPA/play, second in yards/play, third in overall Net EPA/play, third in offensive success rate, fourth in Net EPA/drive, 12th in defensive success rate. They’re well built to take down any defense. But they’ll face the nation’s best defense and one of the best defenses in the 2020s. There’s plenty of great matchups to watch in that battle, but I’m looking at the offensive line. Curt Cignetti poured a bunch of transfer talent skill into building an elite line and so far, they’ve kept Fernando Mendoza upright and powered a strong rushing game. But how will they fare against the Buckeye’s game wreckers like Arvell Reese? That’s going to be a key game within the game to monitor.
For Ohio State, there is also a looming question of will the offense find its second level? If you felt the Buckeyes were coasting to their 12-0 regular season mark, I would agree with you. But now? This is the postseason, where Ohio State has to meet that elite level if they want to repeat as the only 12-team playoff champion. I have no doubts the passing attack can do that - after all, Ohio State ranks first in EPA/pass and first in passing success rate. Having the talent on the outside that the Buckeyes do almost necessitates that. But rushing is where I want to see that next level. Can Bo Jackson and C.J. Donaldson Jr. power through a strong Indiana front seven? On paper, I’m not sure. Ohio State is just 60th in rushing success rate and 72nd in EPA/rush. Indiana, on the other hand, is 24th in defensive EPA/rush and 21st in defensive rushing success rate. So, it’ll be the Julian Sayin, Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate show once again.
16 Virginia v. Duke (8 p.m., ABC)
We cap off conference championship weekend with the biggest chaos scenario there is.
That, of course, is 7-5 Duke. The Blue Devils had a rough start to the season with a blowout loss to Illinois and a loss on the road to Tulane in quarterback Darian Mensah’s homecoming. Still, Manny Diaz rallied his team and they were able to post a respectable 6-2 ACC record and by the grace of the tiebreaking gods, find themselves in the ACC Championship. If they’re going to pull the upset, it won’t be because of their defense which ranks 121st in success rate and 130th in Net EPA/play. Last time the Blue Devils faced off against Virginia, Chandler Morris shredded the Duke secondary to the tune of 540 total yards and 34 points. It’s hard to see how Duke prevents that from happening again.
Yet, this is the conference that is still clinging to Coastal Chaos without any divisions. And this is a Virginia team that sits at 3-2 in one-score games. But, this is also a Virginia team that went on the road to Durham just two weeks ago and did whatever they wanted against Duke to seal the win. The defense shut down the Blue Devil offense allowing just 255 yards. That’s right, Virginia doubled Duke’s yardage output when they last met. The Hoos also aren’t getting enough credit for a defense that ranks 14th in success rate, 17th in Net EPA/play and 30th in Net EPA/drive. In a game where the opposition has no defense and only offense, it’s hard to match up better than that. But, there’s another factor here: the Virginia offense. For how high-powered it is and how gaudy totals it can put up, Virginia has a strange affinity for shooting themselves in the foot. Those one-score games I mentioned earlier? Sure, a road game against Louisville is fair to be a close contest. But NC State and Washington State and North Carolina and Wake Forest don’t have that same excuse. The Cavaliers should absolutely beat all those teams, yet they let their opposition hang along by forgetting how to score. And I’d take Duke head-to-head against all of those programs.
So, for how much the on-paper reasoning shows Virginia should win this game, just remember that Coastal Chaos hasn’t gone down without a fight.
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