2025 CFB Bracketology: Conference Championships
The final Bracketology before the full CFP bracket's release
The regular season has come to a close. All 136 teams - aside from Army and Navy - have played their full 12-game regular season schedule and we know who has a stake as a contender this season.
One problem: there’s more teams that are deserving on paper than there are playoff spots.
With conference championships looming and serious questions on how the committee views the state of the nation, let’s take a look at how the playoff picture stands right now and how it could play out over Conference Championship Weekend.
As always, here’s the current playoff format:
Five highest ranked conference champions. Note these do not have to be the Power Four and one Group of Six. These are just the flat five best.
Seven at-large teams as determined by CFP rankings.
Seeding is done straight, so the top four ranked teams get bye weeks. This is the big change from last year.
And, for the first time in weeks (sorry about that!) here’s how the bracket would shake out based on my Final Regular Season Top 25
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Let’s get into the Bracketology!
ACC
Lock: None
In Right Now: Miami, Virginia*
In The Hunt: None
Pray for Chaos: Duke
Right now, the ACC sits at a two-bid league by the grace of God. They’re also on the precipice of being a no-bid league.
Miami is the highest ranked team from the conference, but the Hurricanes are in right now as an at-large team. They aren’t competing for the ACC Championship, so the result there doesn’t matter too much. I listed in this week’s Rankings article why I have Miami higher than the playoff committee, so I won’t rehash that here.
But Miami isn’t a given, especially with how the committee feels about the Hurricanes thus far. That means Virginia winning the ACC Championship is the best chance for the league to get into this year’s playoff. The Hoos are ranked by both the CFP and myself as the fourth-best conference champion, so a win puts them in.
Duke, with five losses, still somehow has an outside shot. But that’s a near-impossibility. If Duke upsets Virginia in the title game, a 8-5 Blue Devils would be the ACC’s best hope to get into the playoff aside from a Miami team the committee has shown they don’t particularly like. Duke would be at best the sixth-ranked conference champion based on my rankings, falling behind James Madison (Sun Belt, ranked No. 18) and the winner of North Texas-Tulane for the American (ranked No 19 and 20, respectively). Plus, Duke has a head-to-head loss to Tulane to watch out for. So, if James Madison loses to Troy and North Texas beats Tulane, the Mean Green would be the fourth-best conference champion and seeded 11th. Then, the committee would have to decide between 11-2 James Madison and 8-5 Duke.
Big Ten
Lock: Indiana, Ohio State*, Oregon
In Right Now: None
In The Hunt: None
Pray for Chaos: None
Just like last season, the Big Ten is all set heading into the conference championship. It’ll be a great game between Ohio State and Indiana, but both should be locked into byes barring a catastrophic showing at Lucas Oil Stadium.
Right now, Oregon is slotted to also receive a bye, but that’s unlikely. I think, based on my current rankings at least, the Big 12 Champion would leap frog the Ducks and take that final bye slot, relegating Oregon to hosting a first round game. There are worse fates.
Big 12
Lock: Texas Tech*
In Right Now: BYU
In The Hunt: None
Pray for Chaos: None
Somehow, the Big 12 is still holding onto a sliver of chaos.
Texas Tech has locked up a slot regardless of the outcome of the Big 12 Championship. A win gets the Red Raiders a bye, a loss has them hosting a first round game.
BYU currently is in on my bracket, but on the outside of the committee’s at No. 11. If they win, they’re unquestionably in. Personally, I think they have a case to stay as an at-large with a loss to Texas Tech, but I can see the committee disagreeing with that.
Despite Utah’s No. 15 ranking by myself and the committee, I think the Utes have too much ground to make up. In my eyes, they’re just barely on the outside here.
SEC
Lock: Alabama, Georgia*, Texas A&M
In Right Now: Ole Miss
In The Hunt: Oklahoma, Texas
Pray for Chaos: None
The SEC’s locks increase to three as Alabama and Georgia - the two SEC Championship teams - join 11-1 Texas A&M as squarely in the field. Whoever wins the SEC Championship likely gets a bye.
Ole Miss is also in the ranking range where they should be a lock, but I have them as just “In Right Now” based on the coaching change. The Playoff committee has previously held a team out for losing a key component, see Florida State post-Jordan Travis in 2023, but that was a quarterback. Could they ding the Rebels for losing a portion of their coaching staff? So far, the answer is no as Ole Miss actually climbed a spot following Lane Kiffin’s departure to LSU. But, this is the CFP Committee we’re talking about, where things can change on a dime.
Oklahoma is in on the committee’s bracket, but as I laid out in this week’s Rankings piece, I’m out on the Sooners. The offense is bad, the defense wildly fluctuates between elite and head-scratching. They don’t have many good wins. They’re firmly out to me. Texas is also most likely on the outside, but you’ll hear plenty of politicking to try to get the Longhorns in. They have an impressive resume if you ignore a loss to Florida.
And, alas, Vanderbilt is eliminated. Still, give Diego Pavia the Heisman.
Group of Six/Independent
Lock: None
In Right Now: James Madison*
In The Hunt: North Texas*, Notre Dame, Tulane
Pray for Chaos: None
For the first time this season, Notre Dame has fallen out of the bracket entirely. Check the Rankings article linked at the top of this one to see why I dropped the Irish.
Even though James Madison has the final remaining conference champion bid at the moment, I don’t think they hold onto it. Simply because a ranked win in the American Championship for either team will push them past the Dukes. So, let’s say the winner of North Texas at Tulane is the true “In Right Now” team.
James Madison is still firmly in the hunt, though. A Duke upset in the ACC Championship is all they need to get in. Unfortunately, I think that’s the only path for the Dukes to finally break into the College Football Playoff.
Conference USA, the MAC and Mountain West have been eliminated.
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I appreciate how this almost completely (possible UGA-TAMU matchup excepted) avoids having rematches or conference games in the first two rounds. Having an opening round game be a rematch of a regular-season game, especially a conference game, is repellent to me.
I hope it shakes out to be something like this, even if I don't love the idea of one conference having 3 of the 4 BYEs.