College football is a game that’s ever-changing. Nothing is the same across two weeks, let alone years and decades. Coaches and programs have to be able to adapt to even just survive, let alone thrive.
Just look at the greats. Nick Saban revolutionized his Alabama program in the middle of the dynasty by abandoning the smashmouth, defense-first philosophy that guided the Tide to their early national championships. Instead, he saw the writing on the wall and established the Nick Saban Reclamation School for Fired Coaches, piloting the program with a resurgent Bill O’Brien to much success.
But, after years on the job and molding a program into your vision, sometimes its hard to change. These “lifers” often get carte blanche. They’ve done so much for their program, they get the job for as long as they want it. Think Bill Snyder at Kansas State. Or pre-scandal Paterno at Penn State.
This era of college football, as we all know, is vastly different than the rest. It stands on its own, with new challenges for programs to face in the form of the transfer portal, NIL, revenue sharing, realignment, and whatever madness is coming down the pipe. And some coaches are better equipped than others.
This weekend, we may have seen what amounts to a virtual death knell for two of these lifers. Longstanding coaches that have their programs floundering, flopping in the wind, aimlessly marching towards the bottom at a time most programs are jockeying for any slight grip or hold that can push them to the top.
In the South, particularly in the Oklahoma-Texas area, Friday nights are eternal. They’re the nights where the lights shine on high school football, which is as much as way of life there as heading to Stillwater or Norman or Austin is. Friday nights mean something.
This Friday night, though, was one to forget. As the smallest school in the FBS, a tiny private university with an enrollment of 3,796, one that’s staring down a lengthy, multi-year rebuild and rivals the likes of Kent State as one of the hardest jobs in the FBS, as Tulsa gets their banner day. That banner day came in the form of an utter embarrassment for their big brothers, as the Golden Hurricane slammed home the final nail in Mike Gundy’s coffin in a 19-12 primetime victory over Oklahoma State. According to Winsipedia, it’s the first time since 1998 that the Golden Hurricane prevailed and the first time since 1951 Tulsa got the win in Stillwater.
Somehow, Mike Gundy lost control.
It’s not just the game against Tulsa, though. Gundy’s program has been in a free fall since 2022, when Gundy guided the program to the Big 12 Championship game, which they lost to Texas. That was the final year of the Big 12 as we knew it. Before Oklahoma and Texas bolted. Before realignment turned the conference on its head. Back when Oklahoma State was expected to fill that void at the top of the league under the steady hand of Gundy.
Instead, all that Poke fans have seen is misery.
Since that last glimmer of hope, Oklahoma State has been relegated to a has-been. And also-ran. An afterthought. That 10-4 season in 2022 has morphed into the Cowboys losing 11 of their last 12, including 11 straight against FBS foes. Their only win came this August in a lackluster 27-7 win over FCS UT-Martin, who went on to suffer larger losses against traditional cellar dweller UTEP (42-17) and FBS newcomer Missouri State (42-10). “Fire Gundy” chants coursed through Boone T. Pickens Stadium as Oregon decimated Oklahoma State 69-3 like they were an FCS program, and again a week later when Tulsa came to town and controlled the game.
Gundy was shown the door yesterday and for the first time in 21 years, Oklahoma State is looking for a head coach.
It’s not just Oklahoma State where there’s reason for concern. In fact, we can look to another school clad in orange that is suffering the same fate.
Clemson entered the year as high as you could get. I had them ranked Number 1 in my Season Preview magazine. And, on paper, I stand by that. The Tigers were the top program in returning production a year after winning the ACC. They went out and revamped the defense, hiring acclaimed coordinator Tom Allen who had just authored a masterful defensive season at Penn State. The team was loaded with experienced blue chip players that were ready to take the next step.
That step turned into a stumble when Clemson dropped the Tiger Bowl and Battle for Death Valley to visiting LSU, 17-10. But LSU was also a preseason contender, and currently is ranked second in the nation in my latest Top 25. That’s forgivable, especially with a one-score margin.
But then it got worse. Troy - a Sun Belt team that currently sits at 1-3 - had Clemson on the ropes, taking a 16-3 lead to the locker rooms in Memorial Stadium (Clemson lost the Death Valley moniker to LSU the week prior). Sure, the Tigers rattled off 24 unanswered points in the second half for a 27-16 lead, but the damage was done. Clemson was vulnerable.
For the first time this season, coach Dabo Swinney took his team on the road to Georgia Tech the next week. And again, the Tigers fell. But Georgia Tech is a team I’ve been high on, and were ranked 21st in my Top 25 ahead of that contest. And it took a last-second fire drill field goal for the Yellow Jackets to top Clemson in Atlanta. You can look past that, right?
Maybe you can. After all, two close losses to now-Top 15 programs isn’t the worst. Or even the bottom. That came the next week, as Syracuse, a team nobody had considered a contender, dominated Clemson. The 34-21 line really doesn’t do it justice. Syracuse took the game easily, despite allowing huge chunks of yards, they didn’t let Clemson sniff the endzone aside from some two sustained drives and a chunk score.
Now, the assumed national title contender sits at 1-4 and heat is starting to rise where there once was a chill. Death Valley, the actual desert for which Clemson’s stadium took it’s unofficial (and forfeited) moniker, is known for it’s high heat levels. Maybe Howard’s Rock is starting to imbue some of that heat onto the seat of Dabo Swinney.
Here we have two programs, similar in primary color and in-season results. Both have long-term tenures at their programs and rank in the top five in longest tenures in the FBS. Both, now, have to face serious scrutiny.
For both men, the parallels don’t stop there. In fact, the similarities are striking and alarming.
Neither program has looked inspired this year. Oklahoma State’s only promise was shattered away, as quarterback Hauss Hejny suffered a broken foot in the Cowboys’ win over UT-Martin. He looked the part under center, leading scoring drives on two of his three series. Once Hejny suffered that injury, the Oklahoma State team looked as if the life was drained from them. They rank 135th in Net EPA/play at -0.51, ahead of only UMass. They’re scoring just 14.0 points per game - ranking 134th. Clemson isn’t much better. Despite a wealth of talent - ranking 16th in Bud Elliott’s Blue Chip ratio, which looks at the percentage of the roster that is made up of four- and five-star players - the Tigers are flat as well. All that talent, all the highly-paid coordinators have left Clemson ranking 66th in Net EPA/play, behind teams like Rice, Wisconsin, NC State and Kentucky. Not the best company to hold.
Neither coach has shied away from causing controversy for his team. Gundy proclaimed ahead of the Oregon game that Dan Lanning and his staff were spending “a lot of money” on their roster, insinuating the playing field wasn’t fair. Lanning and Oregon took that personally and kindly escorted the Oklahoma State program and Gundy behind the woodshed for a whipping. Swinney came to his defense after talk-show callers and internet commenters alike started calling for his job, saying “if [Clemson fans] are tired of winning, they can send me on my way.” Swinney’s team would proceed to lose to Syracuse and fall to 1-3. Or, a spiritual 0-4 after the Troy debacle, but who’s counting.
Most importantly, neither coach has adapted to the times. Both Gundy and Swinney largely ignored the transfer portal, instead trying to stay to the tried and true method of building a program through the high school ranks. Both broke into the portal for the first time this season - Gundy adding 41 players and Swinney breaking the bank for four - without much success. Both watched as NIL and the portal catapulted programs past theirs.
SMU joined Clemson in the ACC Championship last season as their well-renowned oil rich boosters could finally legally flex their wallets, first to build a roster and then to buy entry to the ACC. Texas Tech, behind Cody Campbell’s checkbook, has established themselves as a true Big 12 contender. Programs like the Oregon that Gundy complained about have made themselves yearly contenders and one of the top programs in the nation.
Both coaches refused to adapt. And now they’re here, begging for mercy. Gundy has declared he’s going to stay in Stillwater. He neglected to include Oklahoma State brass of that plan and they took matters into their own hands, firing Gundy yesterday. Swinney remains confident that Clemson can turn the season around. They sound defeated, like they can see the darkness closing in on what’s been their life for well over a decade. They sound scared. Maybe they should be.
So what comes next?
Oklahoma State has already opened their head coaching position up after the loss to Tulsa. They’ll pay Gundy a $15 million buyout to get out of the program.
For Swinney, things are also definitive. Meaning, he definitively won’t be going anywhere. He’s one of the highest paid coaches in college football, earning over $11 million each year. His buyout, if fired without cause, sits at an astronomical $60 million, and only drops to $57 million in 2026. Regardless of how Clemson fans feel, Dabo is staying put unless he decides it’s time for a change. And with his beloved Alabama struggling under Kalen DeBoer, perhaps that decision could be coming.
As we look back at these two programs, it’s important to see the full picture. The wonderful rise of each program. Both teams had gone higher under these coaches than in years previous. But now, neither one is holding up to those standards.
These coaches still have time to right the ship. It’s a long season, after all. But they can serve as a cautionary tale. You have to adapt. You can’t be set in your ways and be a successful coach or program leader. Both Gundy and Swinney refused to adapt until it was too late. And look where that’s landed them. Here, with me writing a requiem of sorts. Not where you want to be if you’re a coach.
Have any questions, ideas, article pitches, or information? With the new Substack features, you can directly message me! Hit the button below to send me a message, or reach out via email to griffin@sid-sports.com, or find us on your favorite social media platform like Facebook, Instagram, Substack Notes and Bluesky.