Double-dipping into the carousel again
Two more jobs from Florida and Colorado State flood the market
Boy, all these coach firings are sure getting tiring, aren’t they? Don’t worry, there’s clearly no reason for more coaching positions to open up (read: sarcasm).
Just two jobs opened this week, one in the Power Four at Florida and one priming for a conference move in Colorado State. While the schools seem like there are no similarities aside from their Division I FBS playing status, the two jobs and firing statuses are actually remarkably similar.
Welcome to the latest in the SID Sports Coaching Shortlist Series. In case you’re new, I do one of these for each FBS head coaching job as it comes open. I’ll give a brief overview of the position, what led to the firing, and what expectations and things to consider are for the hire. Then, I’ll present a top five candidates list. These lists, unless otherwise noted, are pure speculation. I’ll let you know if I have sources pointing to something.
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The Job - Florida
Let’s start with the big-ticket firing that vaults into contention with Penn State for the best job on the market.
Florida canned Billy Napier in a move that’s felt inevitable for years, now finally realized. He staved off his firing last season with a great second-half run that showed off D.J. Lagway as the future of college football. This year, that’s looked more like a mirage than some kind of crystal ball vision for the future.
Napier departs Gainesville with a 22-23 record that feels exactly right.
But, credit to Napier. He did a lot. As friend of the newsletter and Florida fan
of Tailgators Setup pointed out in his postmortem of Napier’s tenure, he did a lot of good for the program. He reinstated a culture that was among the nation’s worst under Dan Mullen. He recruited his tail off, bringing in stars like Lagway, Dallas Wilson, Tyreak Sapp, Jadan Baugh, and more.The problem with Napier’s tenure is that he never got it done on the field. Every top 10 upset over LSU has a home loss to South Florida. The Gators never really got it going. And that’s despite Napier getting a blank check for NIL and his staff. The off-field stuff went great for the Gators, but on-field, they looked rough.
So where does that leave Florida? To me, that’s a great question. It’s clear that Florida fans think of the program as one of the nation’s best, with expectations to compete for SEC and National Championships each and every year. The highs of Steve Spurrier and Urban Meyer are the expectation. Maybe that’s hyperbolic, but Playoff bids are a clear expectation in Gainesville.
To me, that’s where a possible disconnect is. To date, only Spurrier has built Florida into a sustainable program. “Health issues” and a host of player-related legal kerfluffles led to the end of the Meyer era. The mid-1980s saw a run of top six finishes, but past that, Florida has been a slightly above average SEC program. Not quite the image you had in your mind, is it?
But this is a new era of college football. One where Indiana, Georgia Tech and Vanderbilt rank among the best teams in the nation. The entire landscape has shifted.
For all Florida’s flaws in the past, Napier showed two things: 1) the Gators are willing to spend to win, and 2) Florida still has plenty of pull with recruits.
Athletic director Scott Stricklin seems firmly entrenched in the position. He’s overseen some rough hires (cough cough, Mullen and Napier) but has also brought in coaches that have built Florida into one of the nation’s top athletic departments. As a department, Florida has won at least one national title in each of the last 15 seasons (Stricklin is only responsible for the final nine years, taking over in 2016). Just last year, a Stricklin hire in Todd Golden led the Gators to an NCAA Men’s Basketball National Championship.
Still, there is considerable turnover ahead for Florida. Stricklin has a clause in his contract to start moving towards retirement in 2030. The university is still without a full-time president. All those could be red flags for any long-term option.
The Candidates
Again, just reiterating here, these top five candidates are purely speculative. I’ll let you know when I’m hearing things.
Lane Kiffin, Ole Miss HC: You can’t find someone more like Spurrier than Kiffin, who has the bravado and self-confidence to take over a place like Florida and put it all together. He’s flipped Ole Miss’s fortunes since arriving, but hasn’t fully broken through, with his Rebels often losing games they shouldn’t and tanking their SEC and CFP hopes. Kiffin is a shrewd recruiter and is masterful in the portal, so could be an instant injection of energy and talent that Florida boosters are looking for. He’ll cost a lot, though.
Jedd Fisch, Washington HC: Husky fans, avert your eyes. Fisch is an alumni and worked under Spurrier. He’s got a propensity for moving quickly when a job he’s interested in, cutting ties at Arizona after only two years to head to Washington. Fisch had a hard act to follow after Kalen DeBoer left the roster barren following a run to the national championship game. Fisch has done well restocking the roster and has built some great offenses.
Eli Drinkwitz, Missouri HC: Elsewhere in the SEC, Drinkwitz has led the most successful stretch of Missouri football this side of Gary Pinkel. He’s done it through talent development more than Kiffin’s high-level signings, but Missouri has a clear identity of running the ball and playing tougher than anyone else under Drinkwitz. Sources are telling me that there isn’t much of a feeling of Drinkwitz considering roles outside of Missouri, but time will tell.
James Franklin, former Penn State HC: Franklin may be seen as a safety option, but he has serious merits. For one, you know he’s going to win more than he’s going to lose. Plus, he’d be the most qualified coach on the market for a job like this. Granted, in the SEC, you’d have a hard time getting past the “Big Game James”-ness. But, then again, Franklin was successful at Vanderbilt before heading up to Penn State.
Urban Meyer, former Ohio State/Florida HC: Let’s be clear on this: I have not heard anything saying Florida is interested in running it back with Meyer, especially after the nightmare that was his Jacksonville Jaguars tenure. But I’m hearing some buzz that Meyer is considering another run on the sidelines. He obviously isn’t a long-term candidate, but his window could line up well with Strickland’s retirement clauses. And, if he can mentor another Ryan Day to take over when he’s done, that would be a bonus.
The Job - Colorado State
Colorado State cut ties with Jay Norvell (no relation to the also firing candidate Mike Norvell at Florida State) following a 18-26 record. His first three years left the Rams without a winning season, but Colorado State looked much improved in an 8-5 campaign last year.
Still, like at Florida, there is a sense that Norvell was underperforming with the resources available to him at Colorado State. And, like Napier, that run towards the end of last season prolonged his job for another eight weeks of football.
This, to me, has been one of the more curious firings in the cycle. Norvell has had his Rams improving each season, culminating with their first bowl bid since 2017 in an Arizona Bowl loss to Miami of Ohio last season. But, a 2-5 stumble out of the gates - hey, that looks like Napier, too - cost Norvell his job.
Colorado State as a whole is in an interesting spot. They are one of the better equipped Group of Six schools. Norvell was pulling in a cool $1.9 million each year, so they have the money to draw a decent coach. Their facilities are top-notch and the program calls a stadium home that opened in 2017 with all the bells and whistles. And the fan base is more energized than most Group of Six schools, drawing over 40,000 fans for the conference matchup against Hawaii that cost Norvell his job.
You also have to consider the fact that Colorado State is PAC-12 (PAC-St8) bound next year, which should bring in a slightly larger media rights paycheck. Pairing that with what the Rams already have in place and you have an appealing position for a coach to take over. Possibly the best Group of Six job that can open this season?
The Candidates
As with any Group of Six job, you have to be mindful of connections and salary when discussing candidates. Colorado State may have more flexibility in that manner, but it’s still something to watch.
Tony Alford, Michigan running backs coach/run game coordinator: It’s not the flashiest title, but Alford has a huge role for the Wolverines, developing players like Justice Haynes, Kalel Mullings and Donovan Edwards in his two years in Ann Arbor. He’s been recruiting at an elite level at Michigan and Ohio State before that, so could follow the Fran Brown recipe for success. As a former Colorado State star tailback, his alma mater may be enough to pull him into his first FBS head coaching role.
Tim Skipper, UCLA interim HC: It’s doubtful that Skipper plays his way into keeping the UCLA job, but he would be a great fit in Fort Collins. He’s completely flipped the feeling in the building for the Bruins and led Fresno State to a solid season in the interim role last year. Skipper is a former Colorado State assistant coach under Jim McElwain when the Rams were rolling. He’s never been a full-time head coach, but his teams have done well when he was an interim. It’s time to give him a full-time role.
Bryan Harsin, California OC: When I asked a source that had worked under Harsin if he was looking for a head coaching role this cycle, he said “1000%.” So there you have it. For what it’s worth, Harsin has done a great job with Jaron Keawe-Sagapolutele turning California into a respectable team. Sure, most people might know Harsin from his disatrous Auburn tenure, but he was a great Group of Six head coach at Boise State before moving to the Plains. He knows the area and has what it takes to succeed in Fort Collins. His contract with California is kept under wraps, as they’re a private school, but I assume he’d command more than Norvell did.
Matt Lubick, Kansas co-OC: Lubick, the son of iconic Colorado State head coach Sonny Lubick, may be at the forefront of some fan lists. Lubick the Younger doesn’t have any head coaching experience, but he has been a piece of the puzzle for many seriously high-powered offenses. He spent last season as the offensive coordinator at Nevada, who averaged 5.9 yards per play and posted the 10th best completion percentage. Lubick would probably be a cheaper pull than the rest, but I don’t know how Colorado State cares about that.
Brent Vigen, Montana State HC: We talked about Vigen for the Oregon State job, so I won’t rehash that all here. He’s gone 51-12 in his time with the Bobcats and has two national championship appearances, but hasn’t won one yet. The feeling is Vigen is ready to make the jump. His fifth-ranked Bobcats are proof of that.
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Florida fans do not want James Franklin as their next head ball coach. If that's the hire, they may call for Sticklin's head.