CFP National Championship Preview
Breaking down the Notre Dame v. Ohio State game for all the marbles
Folks, we’ve made it. This is the one for all the marbles. The College Football Playoff National Championship.
Squaring off tonight at Mercedez-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia we have two of the bluest of bloods. Titans of the sport. On one side, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. On the other sideline, the Ohio State Buckeyes.
In years past, neither of these teams would be here. Notre Dame, ranked at Number 5 in the final CFP Rankings, and Ohio State, ranked at Number 6, both would be on the outside looking in if we were still in the four-team era. No longer. Now, two deserving schools have truly earned their spot in the College Football Playoff National Championship.
But that’s not to say there’s no criticisms here. Notre Dame, after all, lost at home to Northern Illinois, who went onto an 8-5 finish in the MAC. Ohio State suffered a disastrous regular season-closing loss to 8-5 Michigan that turned the head coach’s seat into a pressure cooker. You can say what you want about these two programs’ resumes, but you can’t say they didn’t earn their spots here. Not after three straight CFP wins over other quality teams got them here.
This matchup might sound familiar to you - Notre Dame and Ohio State recently completed a home-and-home series in 2023 with a thrilling 17-14 Ohio State victory in South Bend last September. A Chip Trayanum touchdown as time expired was the difference, and one of college football’s most confusing and entertaining beefs was born.
It’s time to settle this, though. Once and for all. It’s time to crown a champion.
Ready for tonight’s game? So are we! Join the SID Sports subscriber chat tonight around 7 p.m. Eastern to watch along and talk ball!
When
Time: Monday, January 20, 2025 - 7 p.m. Eastern
Where: Atlanta, Georgia - Mercedes-Benz Stadium
TV: ESPN - Chris Folwer, Kirk Herbstreit, Molly Rowe, and Molly McGrath
Radio: ESPN Radio - Sean McDonough, Greg McElroy, Ian Fitzsimmons, and Katie George
Notre Dame Notes
This will be Notre Dame’s first ever College Football Playoff National Championship appearance and first National Championship Game appearance since the 2012-13 season, when Alabama defeated the Irish 42-14.
Entering today’s game at 14-1, this is the winningest season in Notre Dame history.
In the three years Marcus Freeman has led the Irish, Notre Dame has notched 14 ranked wins - the most ever by a Notre Dame head coach over their first three seasons. Further, that mark ties Georgia for the most ranked wins over the past three seasons. This isn’t your Brian Kelly-led Notre Dame that can’t win against ranked opponents. Freeman has created a juggernaut.
Notre Dame relies on its defense, which has been lights out across the entire College Football Playoff. The unit ranks first in the nation in pass efficiency on defense (99.50), first in turnovers gained (32), first in defensive touchdowns (6), second in scorind defense (14.3), second in passing defense (165.3), third in fumbles recovered (13), fifth in interceptions (19), fifth in third down defense (29.8 percent), and ninth in total defense (298.3).
Moving to the offensive side of the ball, the Irish are coached by 2023 Broyles Award Finalist Mike Denbrock and will lean on a strong running game.
Quarterback Riley Leonard has stuffed the stat sheet so far this season and is one of four FBS quarterbacks to have thrown for over 2,600 yards and rushed for at least 700 yards. Expect to see Leonard work on designed runs in short-yardage situations and take big shots in the vertical passing game - especially targeting wideout Jaden Greathouse out of the slot.
The real workhorse of this offense is tailback Jeremiyah Love. Love is the 21st 1,000 yard rusher in Notre Dame history and enters the game with 1,122 yards on the season. Even more impressive, Love has found the endzone in 13 consecutive games for the Irish. He’s been hampered some recently by a knee injury, but should be very close to, if not at, 100 percent for tonight’s game.
Up front, the Irish, as always, are a formidable unit. The Notre Dame offensive line was once again named Joe Moore Award finalists - and award given out to the best offensive line unit each season. However, injuries have struck the unit recently. Guard Rocco Spindler, who exited last week’s game against Penn State with an injury, has not been on the injury report. The Irish will be without left tackle Anthonie Knapp and will turn to either Tosh Baker or Charles Jagusah in his stead.
Back to the defensive side of things, Notre Dame’s unit is clicking when they need it most. The edge rushing duo of R.J. Oben and Bryce Young have wreaked havoc on opposing offenses all playoff and are geared up against a banged up Ohio State offensive line.
The Irish will lean on Consensus All-American safety Xavier Watts to lead the passing attack. Watts has 13 picks on his career with six coming this season alongside eight passes defensed. Look for Ohio State to try to neutralize the threat of Watts, but he’s going to make an impact in this game one way or another.
Notre Dame’s secondary is banged up and without stars like Benjamin Morrison, but that hasn’t hampered the unit one bit. Notre Dame’s secondary has held seven opponents under 125 passing yards this season, which leads the nation. Couple that with high marks in interceptions and defensive scores and Will Howard will be uncomfortable.
Special teams has been a rollercoaster this season, but kicker Mitch Jeter has been near automatic in the playoffs, hitting the first ever go-ahead field goal in regulation in CFP history and knocking in three 40+ yard field goals for the highest mark in CFP history.
It’s not just Jeter, though. The Notre Dame special teams unit will be aggresssive and rank first in blocked kicks (6) and second in blocked punts (3) this season. Freshman defensive lineman Bryce Young has blocked three kicks this season.
Ohio State Notes
From start to finish, Ohio State has dominated this playoff. The Buckeyes have not trailed for one second in their three previous CFP games.
Ohio State hasn’t shyed away from top-tier competition, notching four wins over Top 5 ranked teams this season (No. 3 Penn State, No. 5 Indiana, No. 1 Oregon, No. 3 Texas).
With a heavy returning player contingent, playoff experience is all over the Ohio State roster. In the last six seasons, Ohio State has broken into the playoff field four times - a best among active FBS head coaches.
Notre Dame head coach Marcus Freeman was a former Ohio State linebacker, winning four Big Ten Championships and playing in two National Championships with the Buckeyes. Ohio State isn’t kind to alumni on the other sideline, though, with opposing Ohio State player-turned-coaches going 5-18-1 all-time against Ohio State, including a 0-2 mark for Freeman.
The Buckeyes will look to start fast against Notre Dame. So far this playoff, Ohio State has racked up 560 first quarter total yards, while only allowing only 124. Going further, Ohio State has a 42-0 scoring differential in the first quarter this playoff.
Ohio State, like Notre Dame, will look to lean on a strong running game, headlined by the two-headed monster of Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson. The backs have combined for 371 yards in the CFP and each have two rushing scores.
Will Howard has really stepped up his play since the Michigan loss, completing 73.8 percent of his passing attempts for an average of 306.3 yards per game in the Playoff alongside six touchdowns and two interceptions.
There isn’t a single threat to stop in the Buckeye passing attack. Two targets - Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka - have at least 200 receiving yards in the playoffs. Carnell Tate has eclipsed the century mark and Henderson and tight end Gee Scott Jr. are just below that at 99 receiving yards a piece.
I’ve talked a lot about the health for Ohio State up front, but the two sacks allowed last week against Texas were the first two since Seth McLaughlin tore his Achilles in November ahead of the Indiana game.
On the flip side, the Buckeye defense, led by Jim Knowles, is especially ready for the Fighting Irish. The Silver Bullets have ranked third in the nation in rush defense and have allowed a meager 291.1 total yards per game in the College Football Playoff.
To combat the run, keep an eye out for linebackers Cody Simon and Sonny Styles. Simon has notched 30 tackles across the playoff, whereas Styles showed out against Texas, notching nine total tackles and three tackles for loss.
Knowles also enjoys the pressure his two dynamic edge rushers, Jack Sawyer and J.T. Tuimoloau, have generated thus far. Sawyer and Tuimoloau are the headliners of an attacking front that has 16 sacks this postseason, led by Tuimoloau’s 5.5 sacks and Sawyer’s 4.5. They also add in other aspects of the game, including Tuimoloau’s 18 total tackles and Sawyer’s six passes broken up.
The Silver Bullet secondary, led by Caleb Downs, is one of the nation’s best. The unit has 25 total passes broken up. Againt a shaky Notre Dame pass defense, that could be the difference.
So, with all that said - who are you picking tonight? Let me know down below!
What I’m Reading:
Three-Point Stance by Tyler Schuster: Three-Point Stance is your favorite independent college football newsletter. Come for in-depth analysis and bold commentary, stay for the jokes and memes. An idea hatched after years of 12-hour days glued to the couch, Tyler Schuster puts his passion for the sport on full display, delivering big-picture ideas, weekly previews and gambling nuggets directly to your inbox.
An idea hatched after years of 12-hour days glued to the couch, Tyler Schuster puts his passion for the sport on full display, delivering big-picture ideas, weekly previews and gambling nuggets directly to your inbox.
Tailgators Setup by Brian Lennon, John Crimella, and Gary McDaniel: I’ll be a little selfish on this one and plug a great college football podcast that I was lucky enough to join a few weeks back to talk UEC and SID Sports! Brian, John and Gary are a ton of fun to listen to and break down the weekend to come in a very easy to digest and entertaining way. Be sure to tune into the Tailgators' Setup podcast and subscribe for more great content from them!
Split Zone Duo by Alex Kirshner, Steven Godfrey, and Richard Johnson: You can't beat Alex, Richard and Godfrey. They're on the front lines breaking news and creating the best content in the game. I 100 percent recommend SZD for anyone into college football and Steven Godfrey hating your team. They’re mostly a podcast publication, but sometimes being able to listen to three well-informed guys talking about college football is what you need in your life.
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I'm rooting for Notre Dame, but think Ohio State will win this one pretty easily. That ND offensive line will have its hands full tonight.
Heart wants ND, head says OSU. Just hope it’s competitive either way. Head says it may not be, though.