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Griffin Olah's avatar

Hi Robbie - great questions and great thoughts!

Personally, I really like Indiana, but it's hard to see how good they truly are based on their strength of schedule. I routinely docked Michigan rankings for that same thing last year and had them ranked similarly to Indiana. This year, Ohio State dropped in my polls until their win over Penn State based on the lack of playing anyone.

Miami's ranked higher, like you said, because they have the stronger SOS. There's a ranked win over Louisville that just got better with the Cardinals' win over Clemson. I agree that the dogfight, while a great game to watch, isn't the best win, but it's against a much better opponent than Indiana has on their record.

I think the margin between most of these top 10 programs is closer than most, with Oregon the only one really separating themselves so far. Indiana's going to keep jumping up the rankings as they keep getting wins, the same way Miami is. I think we'll see a lot from the Hoosiers against Michigan this weekend.

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Robbie Marriage's avatar

I hope so, but I get the sinking feeling it's just a trap for the Hoosiers. If they win, it's only going to be a nail in the Michigan coffin. If they lose, they were never real anyway. That's not fair, but I know that going to college football for fairness is like going to the desert for a drink.

What would be the point spread if Ohio State were to play Louisville at home? 17 or so? I know I'm looking ahead a bit, but substract those 17 from Miami's seven point win and you get that a loss by ten points or less at Ohio State should be approximately as impressive as a seven point win in Louisville. It won't be, but it should be. I'll ask you the same question Griffin. Let's say Indiana keeps winning until that game.

If Indiana loses by ten points or less in Columbus, how would you treat them? That seems mighty impressive to me. Would you take them out of your playoff for that, in favour of some nondescript SEC team (Alabama, Ole Miss, LSU, whatever)? I know the real CFP people will, because they're corrupt and biased and have already declared their hatred of Indiana, but what would you think?

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Griffin Olah's avatar

I agree with you on Michigan. In the national media's eyes, whatever Indiana does is just going to confirm what they already thought - either Michigan is bad or Indiana is a pretender.

The real CFP people are going to try to find a way to bounce Indiana to boost ratings, but I don't see how they get left out if a close loss to Ohio State is their only blemish on an otherwise perfect record. I don't think they'll be in position to host a playoff game in the first round if they lose to Ohio State, but they'll certainly get in. They're far too good a team to be left out.

I'm really primed up to move Indiana up my rankings, and my new bracketology article has Indiana listed as in the playoff and likely to stay in. They're not a lock because, like you've said, they're a perceived lesser brand that doesn't have a strong SOS. But they're really close.

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