2024 Games of the Slot: Week 7
Breaking down which game to watch at each time slot this weekend
Conference slates are heating up with some heavyweight matchups on this week’s docket. With as much chaos as we saw last week, the path to conference title games and even playoff bids is wide open. Some of our games this week have serious implications for both of those.
But which ones do you need to pay attention to? Let’s break it down!
As always, times are in Eastern and we’re back to using the SID Sports rankings instead of the AP Poll I used last week.
Friday Night
Game of the Slot: 23 Utah at Arizona State (10:30 p.m., ESPN)
Utah was expected to be good. Arizona State was not. Utah is good. Arizona State is…good?
I’m taking a measured stance along with Tyler Schuster to not play the Cam Rising will-he-or-won’t-he-play game, so Isaac Wilson is the Utes quarterback until proven otherwise. That’s a hit for one of the Big 12 favorites, but it’s been okay for them so far this season. The true freshman carries a 44.2 QBR into this game that ranks 94th in the nation, but a poor outing last week against Arizona is really pulling that down. Either way, the Utes will do Utah things: rely on a punishing run game headlined by Micah Bernard and a solid defense. But Arizona proved that shutting down Bernard puts Utah in a tough spot. Can Arizona State replicate that strategy tonight?
Kenny Dillingham is cooking up a special season in Tempe as the Sun Devils sit at 4-1 and very much in the Big 12 race. Part of that comes from quarterback stability with Sam Leavitt starting all of Arizona State’s games so far. But Leavitt hasn’t been world-beating, he leaves that to senior tailback Cam Skattebo, who’s averaging 5.5 yards on 111 carries with six touchdowns. Arizona State’s defense is still suspect, but their strong rushing attack is enough to make life difficult for the Utes defense.
Multi-Box Games: UNLV at Utah State (9 p.m., CBS Sports Network), Northwestern at Maryland (8 p.m., FOX)
UNLV’s overtime loss to Syracuse last week might have bumped them from the rankings, but they’re still very much in G5 playoff bid position. Hajj-Malik Williams has been an improvement over departed Matthew Sluka and a poor Utah State team shouldn’t be much of a roadblock for the Running Rebels. Northwestern and Maryland aren’t in the Big 10 race, but this is still going to be a fun game. These are two evenly-matched teams that take care of the football, so expect the battle between Northwestern’s defense and Maryland’s offense to decide this one.
Saturday - 12 p.m. EST
Game of the Slot: Washington at Iowa (FOX)
With both programs sitting at one loss in-conference so far, a win here could put them in good position for a run at the Big 10 championship. A loss, while not damning, is going to be hard to overcome.
Washington got a quality win over Michigan to clear their first Big 10 hurdle. Now, they get a trip to Kinnick. Jedd Fisch’s team boasts one of the nation’s most efficient offenses, ranking 17th in yards per play, 13th in passing efficiency, and Will Rogers ranks top-five in the nation in completion percentage. As anticipated, Rogers is the engine for the Fisch-led Husky machine and that pairing has worked well. I do have one major worry - Washington hasn’t been the best at stopping the run. That’s made worse by, as On Montlake’s Christian Caple pointed out in his Midseason Recap post, the Huskies are banged up on the defensive line, losing Jayvon Parker for the season. They are getting Sebastian Valdez back, which will help, but Iowa is the best running attack the Huskies have seen so far.
Which is good for Iowa, because Washington’s defense’s strength is their secondary. Since this is Iowa we’re talking about, I don’t expect Cade McNamara to air the ball out too much. Especially now that wideout Kaleb Brown has opted out of the rest of the season with a redshirt to enter the transfer portal once it opens. The Hawkeyes also lost tailback Leshon Williams, but he hadn’t appeared in any games recently as Kaleb Johnson is taking the Iowa City plains by storm. Johnson is going to be the key for this game. If he can take advantage of a banged up Washington front seven like he has been, the Hawkeyes will be in good shape. If Washington’s run defense is up to the task, the onus will be on an uncharacteristically porous Iowa secondary to stop Will Rogers.
Multi-Box Games: South Carolina at 6 Alabama (ABC/ESPN+), Georgia Tech at North Carolina (The CW), Toledo at Buffalo (ESPNU)
This first game is all about how Alabama bounces back. The loss to Vanderbilt was bad and South Carolina is a similar talent level. Can the Tide put that loss behind them and take the Gamecocks behind the woodshed like they’re supposed to. The ACC is shaping up to be a two team race (Miami and Clemson), but Georgia Tech is sitting in the bubble. This isn’t your typical Mack Brown North Carolina team with quarterback question marks, but that can make this a dangerous trap game for Brent Key’s Yellow Jackets. We’ll toss our final game of the timeslot over to some MACtion, where Toledo looks like the top dog, but Buffalo has a big win over Northern Illinois on their resume. This is MACtion, where anything can happen, but the Rockets have perennially under preformed in games like this. Buffalo, on their own right, have bounced between a decent MAC school and bottom-tier FBS program. This has MACtion chaos written all over it.
3-4 p.m. EST
Game of the Slot: 1 Texas at 16 Oklahoma (3:30 p.m., ABC/ESPN+)
It’s Red River Time, baby!
Like last year, when the Dillon Gabriel-led Sooners knocked off Texas 34-30, the Longhorns come into the game holding my No. 1 ranking. Quarterback Quinn Ewers is back practicing following a two-game absence due to an abdominal injury, but it’s assumed that Ewers will be under center this weekend. Honestly, I think Ewers is an upgrade over Arch Manning just because of his big-time experience, but Manning is the best you can get from a backup. Either way, the Longhorns’ offense has been one of the nation’s best so far this season. They’re 10th in passing yards per game with 322.2 even with the injury to Ewers and eighth in scoring offense at 45 points per game. A talented Michigan defense couldn’t stop the Ewers-led Longhorns as they put up 31 points on Big Blue. Texas’s defense has only allowed 7 points per game this season, but they haven’t had a major offense go against them yet.
Oklahoma may not be much of a test there, either, but quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. increases that ceiling. In the six quarters Hawkins has played, the Sooners have put up 39 points against Tennessee and Auburn. That’s not the most impressive, but Hawkins is beating former starter Jackson Arnold in every rate stat there is. The offense is clearly moving better with him leading it. But he’s a true freshman, and the Texas State Fair is a different beast. Is he ready for the big stage? Brent Venables’ defense is, and they’ll need to be. If Oklahoma is going to win this game, they have to make the Texas offense uncomfortable. Otherwise, the Sooner offense doesn’t have the firepower to keep up with either Ewers or Manning.
Multi-Box Games: 4 Penn State at USC (3:30 p.m., CBS), California at 24 Pittsburgh (3:30 p.m., ESPN), Arizona at 15 BYU (4 p.m., FOX)
This is a solid test for Penn State’s playoff readiness. Despite being unranked, USC is a very talented team. Their defense is greatly improved, but the offense lacks the explosive levels we saw with Caleb Williams. Let’s see if Penn State’s defense can reign in one of the nation’s top playcallers in Lincoln Riley and if the Nittany Lion offense can stay strong against an underrated defensive unit. The woke Cal mob will head out east to take on 5-0 Pittsburgh in what is a major game for the Panthers’ ACC championship chances. I’d call Cal the best team to line up across from Pittsburgh this season and Pitt’s reliance on comeback wins is scaring me. Don’t doubt the Calgorithm or let them in the game, otherwise communist red might be flying over Acrisure Stadium. Is BYU for real? They certainly look so, but this is a big test for them. Arizona isn’t the quality of an opponent they were last year, but their domination of Utah shows that they can knock off unsuspecting opponents. BYU will need their defense to continue to play hard and shut down the Noah Fifita-Tetairoa McMillan connection in order to get a big time Big 12 win.
Wondering where these rankings are coming from? Check out this week’s SID Sports Top 25 and Players of the Week!
6-8 p.m. EST
Game of the Slot: 2 Ohio State at 3 Oregon (7:30 p.m., NBC/Peacock)
We’ve had this game circled on our calendars since the schedule was released. It’s time for the Big 10’s biggest showdown so far.
The visiting Buckeyes are getting Harbaugh-era Michigan treatment because They haven’t played anyone, Pawwl! Well, that’s mostly true but we can’t discount a 35-7 win against Iowa even if it was in Columbus. But now the Buckeyes are heading into the Autzen Zoo against a top five Oregon team that won their previous matchup in Columbus in 2021. Ohio State has the nation’s best defense, allowing only 6.8 points per game. Part of that is because they’ve faced next to no competition, but a lot of that is because they’re just that good. On offense, Will Howard is playing like a playoff quarterback with a 12:3 touchdown to interception ratio and a 84.2 QBR that ranks 11th in the nation. His top wideout isn’t Emeka Egbuka, but breakout true freshman Jeremiah Smith. The Buckeye rushing attack is even better with the two-headed monster of Quinshon Judkins and Treveyon Henderson gashing every defense they can find. Oregon will have their hands full.
The Ducks have earned that top five ranking too, though. They have a win over Boise State that looks good and have trounced everyone since. Dillon Gabriel is no stranger to big spots - see last year’s Red River Shootout - and has been very efficient in this Duck offense. Gabriel will target top wideout Tez Johnson often, and tailback Jordan James continues to punish opposing defenses. But there’s one glaring hole that I’ve seen so far: the Oregon defense isn’t what you’d expect from Dan Lanning. Ashton Jeanty tore through the Duck front seven, as he is known to do, but the Ducks haven’t seen a quality back since. This week, Ohio State brings two of the nation’s best. What answer does Lanning have?
Multi-Box Games: 10 Ole Miss at 20 LSU (7:30 p.m., ABC/ESPN+), 11 Iowa State at West Virginia (8 p.m., FOX), 22 Vanderbilt at Kentucky (7:45 p.m., SEC Network)
Both LSU and Ole Miss have losses to unranked teams on their resume, but both are still in the thick of the SEC race where Texas is the only unbeaten team. Expect offense early and often here, as neither program has a proclivity for defense, especially considering the injuries to the LSU front seven. Ole Miss may have the edge on paper with a stronger defense and more explosive offense, but the raucous Death Valley crowd evens that up quickly. Iowa State jumps into the top spot of the Big 12 and still sits undefeated, but West Virginia is also 2-0 in conference play. It may not seem it, but this is a big game for the chaotic Big 12. Iowa State’s defense is the star of the show, but West Virginia’s strong rushing offense is their biggest challenge so far. Hopping back to the SEC, we have two teams coming off massive upset hangovers. Vanderbilt knocked off Alabama for their first ever win over an AP Top Five team, while Kentucky toppled Ole Miss and challenged Georgia. Who can put their big win behind them and focus on the game at hand? Either way, the battle between the Vandy offense and Kentucky defense should be a very entertaining matchup.
West Coast After Dark
Game of the Slot: 19 Kansas State at Colorado (10:15 p.m., ESPN)
With the Big 12 standings currently a mess, teams will need wins at every opportunity to get to the title game. Both Kansas State and Colorado have their eyes on that prize.
The Wildcats are 1-1 in conference - their win over Arizona was technically a non-conference game - and have a light schedule up until a season-closing game at Iowa State. If they want to position themselves for a spot at the title, a win over Colorado here will do a ton. I want to see more from Avery Johnson throwing the ball, but Colorado doesn’t have a great run defense. Could Johnson’s legs and D.J. Giddens be enough for Kansas State to outpace the Buffs offense?
Colorado is going to throw. A lot. Sheduer Sanders has already attempted 197 passes, but his 1,630 yards, 14 scores and 3 interceptions is solid. That pairs well with a 67.3 QBR that ranks 44th. If he’s going to be the focal point of this offense and take the Buffs deep into the Big 12 race, he’ll need to improve that mark. That doesn’t mean force-feeding Travis Hunter, the best player in the nation, but that does mean finding open receivers and maybe Pat Shurmur should consider calling a run play every once in a while. On the bright side, the Colorado offensive line has cut down the amount of sacks that Sanders is taking, so him staying upright crucial against a strong Kansas State defense.
Multi-Box Game: 14 Boise State at Hawaii (11 p.m., CBS Sports Network), Minnesota at UCLA (9 p.m., Big Ten Network)
I’ll be honest. We’re checking in at Hawaii at 11 p.m. for Ashton Jeanty’s Barry Watch. Jeanty’s averaging 206.2 yards per game, but that’s not enough to catch Barry in 12 games. He’ll likely get a conference championship and a bowl bid, but if Jeanty wants to beat Barry in 12, he’ll need to average over 259.8 yards per game. For our final game of the week, Minnesota and UCLA will provide the chaos that you all want. Neither of these teams is particularly good - Minnesota’s win over USC last week aside - which oftentimes translates to plain dumb fun on a gridiron. UCLA has a passing attack that’s their shining star, but it’s not great and Ethan Garbers has a 39.6 QBR this season. Minnesota has a legitimately good defense, but they suffer from the Iowa offensive malady that must be spreading across midwestern Big 10 teams like a pandemic. This one should be some close, chaotic fun.
What I’m Reading:
Three-Point Stance byTyler Schuster: Three-Point Stance is your favorite independent college football newsletter. Come for in-depth analysis and bold commentary, stay for the jokes and memes. An idea hatched after years of 12-hour days glued to the couch, Tyler Schuster puts his passion for the sport on full display, delivering big-picture ideas, weekly previews and gambling nuggets directly to your inbox.
An idea hatched after years of 12-hour days glued to the couch, Tyler Schuster puts his passion for the sport on full display, delivering big-picture ideas, weekly previews and gambling nuggets directly to your inbox.
CERNIG by Colin Cerniglia: It’s time for October baseball, and Colin’s the one I’m trusting to keep me covered! If you don’t know, I love baseball too, and Colin’s been putting out some great work about players around the league. He writes for Yardbarker a lot, but the content is easy to find on CERNIG and super engaging.
Split Zone Duo by Alex Kirshner, Steven Godfrey, and Richard Johnson: You can't beat Alex, Richard and Godfrey. They're on the front lines breaking news and creating the best content in the game. I 100 percent recommend SZD for anyone into college football and Steven Godfrey hating your team. They’re mostly a podcast publication, but sometimes being able to listen to three well-informed guys talking about college football is what you need in your life.
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Re UW vs Michigan. Agreed on Washington’s defense stopping the run. I wrote in my game preview that I’m worried about Kaleb Johnson collecting explosives. The defense doesn’t need to completely shut down the run…just enough, like it did against Michigan.