Transition year or competition year?

Taking a look at this season's FBS newcomers

Photo by Dave Adamson on Unsplash

Last season, the James Madison University Dukes stormed into college football’s highest division, the FBS. After years as a top-flight FCS program, the Dukes were the first in a wave of many to join the top level of college football during this realignment cycle. Surprisingly, the Dukes could hang in the Sun Belt and won the East division. If it wasn’t for that pesky NCAA-regulated transitionary postseason ban, James Madison would’ve competed for a conference title in their first year in the FBS.

That kind of immediate success is unheard of, but can it be replicated? 2023 brings a new pair of schools to the FBS looking to repeat the Dukes’ success: Jacksonville State and Sam Houston State. Will they be able to recapture the Dukes’ Cinderalla moment? Let’s take a look.

The Standard

James Madison made the jump on a hot streak: a 2016 FCS National Title, three consecutive Colonial Athletic Association championships, two national title appearances and two semifinal appearances in five years. The Dukes were good, and clearly ready for the next level.

That showed on the field almost immediately as the Dukes burst out of the game on a five game winning streak behind the arm of senior quarterback Todd Centeio. In those five games, the Dukes knocked off Middle Tennessee State, who would beat Miami, and Appalachian State, who nearly topped North Carolina and did upset Texas A&M. If we use the transitive property of wins, then JMU was looking good. They were able to weather a three game losing streak to rebound and finish the season 8-3 and 6-2 in the Sun Belt, a competitor for the top Group of Five conference in the nation.

So, how did the Dukes manage to pull this off? Well, we already mentioned one of the biggest parts: Todd Centeio. The dual-threat senior was one of the nation’s top quarterbacks, completing 63.7 percent of his passes for 2,697 yards and a sterling 25-to-5 touchdown to interception ratio. Factor all that in and you get a 74.0 QBR by ESPN’s metrics, which ranks Centeio as the 23rd best quarterback in the FBS last season. That doesn’t account for the value Centeio added on the ground: 392 yards and seven touchdowns.

The offense didn’t just carry the weight for the Dukes, though. The defensive line was incredibly disruptive, with three players notching five or more sacks in Isaac Ukwu (7.5), Jamare Edwards (6.5) and James Carpenter (5.5). As a unit, JMU kept opposing offenses out of the end zone at a very efficient rate, only allowing 20. points per game, which ranks 28th in the nation.

James Madison proved that the top of the FCS could compete in the FBS, but this was unprecedented success. Since 2008, 13 teams, including the Dukes, have transitioned from the FCS to the FBS. Three teams couldn’t snag multiple wins. Only three had winning seasons: 8-4 UTSA in 2013, 7-5 Appalachian State and 9-3 Georgia Southern in 2014. The rest of the teams middled in mediocrity.

Jacksonville State

Jacksonville State doesn’t come to the FBS with the same sustained success that James Madison enjoyed in the tail end of their FCS career. In fact, Jacksonville State’s last national championship victory came in 1992 right before their transition from Division II to the FCS.

While that’s concerning, the Gamecocks do have one thing going for them: Rich Rodriguez. That’s right folks, let’s bask in the glory that Rich Rod is back!

For those that don’t know, Rich Rod boasts a career 162-119-2 record in the FBS as a head coach at West Virginia, Michigan and Arizona. Those included the absolutely electric Pat White and Steve Slaton-led Mountaineers teams that consistently ranked in the top five coming out of the Big East (R.I.P.).

Last season, the Gamecocks converted to the Rich Rod style, and it went pretty well with a 9-2 finish and an A-SUN Championship.

Jacksonville State is losing some offensive firepower, though, in last season’s staring quarterback, Zion Webb, and backup quarterback, Aaron McLaughlin. With the offense always being the lead of a Rich Rod-led team, that’s concerning. The running game doesn’t have those question marks, though, with the top two backs and four offensive linemen suiting up for JSU again in 2023.

Let’s be clear on one thing: Jacksonville State will live and die by its offense. That’s how Rodriguez has always been, and the JSU transition won’t change that one bit. The running game has clear potential, but not enough to carry a transitional team. Will Rodriguez and the Gamecocks figure it out? Probably, if we let them have a few years.

To me, Jacksonville State isn’t in the competition year category quite yet. They didn’t add any impactful transfers to boost up the roster. They didn’t even make the FCS playoffs a year ago, while James Madison was enjoying deep run after deep run.

Sure, the CUSA (like that new branding?) is the weakest FBS conference. That’s going to help inflate JSU’s win total. But it’s not enough to push them into a “contender.” They got blown out by their only FBS opponent in 2022, the 5-7 Tulsa Golden Hurricane.

If Rodriguez can figure out a passing attack, then maybe the Gamecocks have a higher ceiling, but it’s not something I see right now. Give them a few years to acclimate, and they should be one of the CUSA’s better teams.

Sam Houston State

Where Jacksonville State has struggled in the past, Sam Houston State boasts a James Madison-like FCS resume: three conference championships since 2016, with the most recent in 2020 in the WAC, multiple deep playoff runs, and a 2020 FCS Championship win over North Dakota State.

JMU showed that the FCS’s best can compete with the FBS, and Sam Houston State is looking to follow that same blueprint.

Where JMU relied on Todd Centeio, the Bearkats’ strength lies in a suffocating defense. Last season, Sam Houston State ranked 15th in scoring defense (20.78 ppg), 37th in total defense (349 ypg), and 28th in turnovers forced (21).

Head Coach K.C. Keeler (what a Texan name) realized the defense was the key to his team’s transition to the top level of college football, and worked even harder to build it. Unlike JMU and JSU, Keeler hit the portal, bringing in Jaden Phillips from New Mexico and Akeem Smith from Georgia State. With last season’s transfer class headlined by Chris Murray from TCU and three-star JUCO product Nate White, the Bearkats’ defense has serious potential.

However, where Jacksonville State has a strong offense and no defense, Sam Houston State may have the opposite problem.

Sam Houston State’s offense was abysmal last season. Think the Iowa of the FCS. Bearkat quarterbacks posted the appalling line of a 45 percent completion rate, 11.1 yards per completion, six touchdowns and 10 interceptions. That needs to improve. They are returning all of their quarterbacks from a year ago, and have added Washington State transfer Xavier Ward, who had no appearances with the Cougars in 2022.

Much like their CUSA newcoming friends, Sam Houston State arrives with one FBS-ready unit. Because of that limitation, they fall in the same category as JSU: not quite contending.

The Verdict

I’ve already touched on it, but let’s be clear here: neither one is going to have a James Madison-like Cinderella run.

JMU had success on both sides of the ball. Based on their teams on paper, neither one of Jacksonville State or Sam Houston State can say the same.

Will they be horrible? Probably not. But, the jump from FCS to FBS is a hard one. Luckily, the postseason ban during transition years will force both programs to focus on what matters: getting acclimated and building in the CUSA.

They are joining the weakest conference in the nation, so that should inflate some win totals. If I had to guess now, I’d peg Jacksonville State in the four-win range, while I think Sam Houston State will be better and sit in the six-win range. After all, defense wins championships.