Three Big Questions: Appalachian State Mountaineers
A look at each FBS program heading into 2023, alphabetically
Last season, the Appalachian State Mountaineers were must-watch football for the first month. They welcomed North Carolina to Boone, and got into a 63-61 barnburner. The next week, they took a massive payday from Texas A&M and beat the Aggies at Kyle Field. Then, the miraculous Hail Mary touchdown against Troy as time expired gave Appy State their first Sun Belt win of the season. It was peak football for three weeks.
Appalachian State has long been the pinnacle of the “Fun Belt” conference and embodied the ultimate underdog. Even today, the mention of Appalachian State conjures up memories of their massive 2007 upset in the Big House. But, how do the Mountaineers look for the 2023 season?
Team Information
School: Appalachian State Mountaineers
Conference: Sun Belt (East)
2022 Record: 6-6 (3-5)
Bowl: N/A
Coaching Staff:
Head Coach: Shawn Clark, fourth season
Offensive Coordinator: Frank Ponce, first season
Defensive Coordinator: Scot Sloan, first season
1. Who can replace Chase Brice?
In the Group of Five, a good quarterback can take you far. Appalachian State had one of the best in Chase Brice.
His stats were great: 219-348, 2,921 yards, 27 touchdowns and only six interceptions. He didn’t have many bad games either, his worst was a 7-for-17 day against Georgia State that the Mountaineers ran away with, 42-17. Granted, Camerun Peoples toted the rock for 168 yards and 2 touchdowns.
But, who can take up the mantle for Brice?
Brady McBride has Sun Belt success after starting at Texas State for two seasons, but he’s currently in the transfer portal. He has participated in some of the Mountaineers’ spring practices, but has pulled out in recent weeks. DC Tabscott, who also could take the reins from Brice, but he’s heading out to UTSA.
Assuming McBride is on his way out, Ryan Burger is the only quarterback on the roster to throw a collegiate pass. Six of them, to be exact. He completed four for 40 yards.
They did add JUCO transfer Joey Aguilar from Diablo Valley College, the number two JUCO quarterback in the 2023 class. He played in six games last season for the Vikings, completing 126 of 197 passes for 1,446 yards, eight touchdowns and six interceptions. They’re not the greatest of numbers, and the touchdown-to-interception ratio is worrying. In 2021, it was only 13-to-six, which is certainly better.
Either way, Burger and Aguilar seem to be in a neck-and-neck competition to lead Appalachian State. New offensive coordinator Frank Ponce, who came up as a passing game coordinator and quarterbacks coach, will have to get the most out of one of them.
2. Can the Mountaineers close out one-score games?
We’ve already established that Brice and a strong running attack can keep Appalachian State in games, but they had seven games end with a one score or less difference. In those games, the Mountaineers only won two, and one was the last second prayer against Troy.
One score games are often a toss-up. It depends on who has the ball, field conditions, special teams confidence, clock management and coaches more so than any other time in a football game. For Appalachian State to go 2-5 in one-score games just isn’t sustainable.
In fact, we can move Appy State’s record to 1-6 because that Troy Hail Mary pass should’ve never worked. Simple statistics show that should regress to the mean. If we move the Mountaineers to just .500 in close games, their record jumps to 7-5 or 8-4. They’re a bowl team and potentially competing for a Sun Belt crown.
If we look at the rest of the Mountaineers’ schedule, we can see that they didn’t get blown out much. Even against Power Five teams, they either won or North Carolina happened. They blew out FCS opponents The Citadel and Robert Morris. They took care of Sun Belt opponents Georgia State and Old Dominion handedly.
Appalachian State was good for a 6-6 team, and that should improve as long as Shawn Clark’s squad can close out games at a better clip than last season.
3. Can the defense weather offensive regression?
As we’ve already discussed, Appalachian State loved getting into shootouts a year ago. They averaged 34.8 points per game, good for 24th in the nation. The defense was more middle-of-the-road, allowing 26.8 points per game, which tied them for 63rd in the nation.
It’s not a bad score differential at all, but it’s entirely plausible that the Mountaineers can’t score as much this year. McBride and Brice are gone, and the passing attack is headlined by question marks. The running game is still good with Nate Noel and Camerun Peoples returning, but not many teams can be successful based on the run game alone.
Can the defense keep up with the offense’s regression? They didn’t bring in any impact players through the portal, aside from former Michigan State edge rusher Michael Fletcher, a four star player by 247’s metrics.
There is a new defensive coordinator in Scot Sloan who has had massive success during his 30+ years as a coach. He spent 2022 as Army’s defensive coordinator and safeties coach, leading a unit that was third nationally in passing yards allowed. Before that, he led an elite Sun Belt defensive unit in Georgia Southern. They consistently posted massive turnover numbers, which could be just what Appalachian State needs.
What are the expectations for Appalachian State?
Appalachian State is one of the most volatile teams this year. Could regression impact this team and drop them into the four win range? Could the quarterback position be figured out and Sloan’s defense starts attacking? If so, then the Mountaineers could be looking at a ten-win season.
Realistically? A top-three Sun Belt finish and a bowl bid should be the bar. Last season was an aberration during Clark’s tenure in Boone, and he continues to recruit at an impressive clip in the Sun Belt. This is a team that’s gearing up to contend for their conference, but it may take another year or so before they return to the title conversation.