The coaching carousel just got really weird really quick
Taking a look at three curious hires this offseason
You always think you’re in the wildest timeline when you’re in it. College football is no different. But I think this coaching carousel is the wildest timeline.
I mean, just look at the header picture of this article. Does he have any business being here? And all these reunions? Come on!
I guess we might as well start with him, since he’s all people can talk about right now, myself included.
Bill Belichick - North Carolina
I spent last week researching and writing an article about how much of a mess this North Carolina coaching search was. How the boosters, trustees and athletic department were at odds. Heck, I went back to 2017 Tennessee to talk about how much of a mess that was!
That article was published December 11 at 10:45 a.m. By noon, Belichick and North Carolina had come to terms. That afternoon, he was officially announced as their head coach.
What changed? Honestly, I don’t know if anything changed. And that scares me.
Belichick, who signed a five-year, $50 million contract with the Tar Heels, pushed heavily for more investment into the football program. It seems like he got that much, with $5.3 million to hire a robust support staff and assistants, $1 million for strength and conditioning alone, and an estimated $13 million in revenue sharing from the House v. NCAA settlement earmarked for football, per The Athletic. So that much is figured out.
But money doesn’t solve everything. In fact, it might just make it worse. Especially if it’s going to people that haven’t ever interacted with the college game.
Belichick, for example, has never coached in the college ranks, despite his eight Super Bowl rings. Sure, revenue sharing and NIL make it more akin to the professional levels, but he still has to recruit and deal with 18-24 year olds. That’s a tough audience. Going further, Belichick has visions of an NFL-style general manager more in charge of the recruiting and roster management. Who has he tabbed for that role? Longtime NFL executive and general manager Michael Lombardi. College experience? Zilch.
Let’s take a step back even further. Can the pipeline from NFL to NCAA work for head coaches?
The table above goes over eight recent NFL coaches that went college with little to no experience in that game (Note: Lane Kiffin is an outlier with college assistant experience, but got his first head coaching role in the NFL with the Raiders). Of those eight, there’s really only two hits.
The first, and most obvious, is Pete Carroll. Pete did a great job at USC, bringing in the likes of Reggie Bush, Matt Leinart, LenDale White and more. He was the architect of one of the best college football teams there was, racking up 34 consecutive wins up until the 2006 Rose Bowl (hey, isn’t that Mack Brown on the sideline there? Weird).
The Lane Train also has room for growth, but he took a long and winding road to that success. Belichick doesn’t have that kind of time.
So that leaves us with six middling to bad coaches. Now, none of them have Belichick’s X’s and O’s acumen or mind for the game, but still. The tale of the tape isn’t that great. Sure, he can outcoach anyone in the college game, most likely, but what about recruiting? What about navigating the transfer portal without being immersed in the college world?
To his credit, Belichick has done well so far in keeping four-star quarterback Bryce Baker committed. He also snagged his first transfer in the most Bill Belichick way possible - coaxing FCS Holy Cross center Christo Kelly into signing with the Tar Heels.
But serious questions remain. Can the grumpy, old Belichick connect with his players? Pete Carroll and Lane Kiffin, the two biggest successes from earlier, are incredibly charismatic. Carroll leaned into the Hollywood aspect and had Snoop Dogg running around the sidelines, while Kiffin is a social media superstar. Belichick doesn’t have that. He also is grating and abrasive to local media. Can that work in a college setting? Previous precendent says no, but the jury is very much out in Chapel Hill.
Scott Frost - UCF
The National Champion* Coach is back at The Bounce House!
UCF has agreed to terms to bring former head man back to Orlando after a disastrous tenure at Nebraska. The two sides have come to a five-year deal, according to the school.
In terms of Scott Frost’s career, there are two clearly distinct portions. First, there was the first UCF era, which involved unprecidented success. Frost took over a 0-12 team and immediately brought them to a bowl with a 6-7 record. The next season? The very same 13-0 National Championship* season with an emphatic Peach Bowl win over Auburn to boot.
After that, Frost took the road to the Big Ten to Nebraska, where the wheels fell off. In four years, Frost didn’t cross over .500 once and had Nebraska trudging onto the most disheartening defeats that you could imagine.
But now, after a year off and a year with the Los Angeles Rams and Sean McVay, Frost is back leading a program.
A lot has changed for both him and the program, though. For UCF, they’re now in a Power Four conference and have the NIL and institutional investment to compete. That hasn’t quite translated to success on the field, as a promising Gus Malzahn squad fell apart at the seams amidst the failed K.J. Jefferson experiment and a plethora of injuries. Overall, the institution is in a better spot than before and gives Frost the legitimate shot to add a legitimate title next to his claimed one from 2017.
And for Frost, he gets to wash away the struggles of coaching at Nebraska, his alma mater, at a place that embraced him so fully. He wasn’t fully in it at Nebraska, saying at his introductory press conference that he felt “a lot of pressure [to take the Nebraska job.]” Frost didn’t seem happy in Lincoln, but now seems full of life and excited about coaching again. To everyone in the process, Frost was clearly passionate about Orlando and UCF. He wanted to come home.
Frost, especially after his Nebraska tenure, isn’t the flashiest hire. But flashy isn’t what every school wants or even needs. This one just feels right.
Rich Rodriguez - West Virginia
Speaking of feeling right, how about Rich Rod back in Morgantown? I know someone (cough cough, Pat McAfee) is happy about this hire, but it seems a lot of boosters are in on it.
There’s been a lot of talk about big ideas in this cycle that you don’t normally see. Home. Redeption. Cleansing the waters. All that. You see it moreso with Rodriguez and West Virginia.
You see, like Frost, Rodriguez had West Virginia on the precipice of greatness. Their 2007 team led by standouts like Steve Slaton, Pat White, Owen Schmitt, McAfee and Noel Devine was one game away from the national championship. One game. Then, 13-9 happened. The 2007 Backyard Brawl is a game thrust into the college football zeitgeist as unranked Pittsburgh derailed all of those hopes and dreams.
Then, Rodriguez did his own derailing, accepting a role at Michigan.
Things for both programs went downhill quickly. Dana Holgorsen was able to keep the Mountaineers relevant with Geno Smith and Tavon Austin - who has the greatest highlight tape of all time - but they weren’t ever true championship contenders. Just a fun team that would score a ton of points.
For Rodriguez, the path at Michigan was an abject failure. After being fired from Michigan, he bounced around with stops at Arizona, as an off-field analyist, on the TV cameras, and finally at Jacksonville State. It was there, with a transitioning program, that Rich Rod proved he still has that mojo.
The Gamecocks were a revelation this year, running their way through the competition like the Mountaineer teams of old on their way to a CUSA championship. All of that led him right back to where he started: on the country roads back to Morgantown.
Like with Frost, West Virginia is in a drastically different spot than his last go-around. For one, they, like UCF, are in the Big 12 and have a clear path to the College Football Playoff and the national championship that eluded him last go around. But more importantly, West Virginia is ready to pay up. Big time.
You can thank McAfee for that. The former punter turned podcaster turned ESPN pundit was a clear leader in the Rodriguez homecoming party. You can see that from his coverage on ESPN of Rodriguez’s welcoming presser. But with McAfee comes money. A lot of it. Especially if he can wrangle his friends and former teammates into donating as well.
With the Associated Press reporting that Rodriguez will get $7.5 million to assemble his staff - a major point of contention when he left for Michigan last time around - you can see that they’re ready to pony up some cash. And with the immediate succes of coaches like Curt Cignetti and Deion Sanders, the same may be expected of Rodriguez.
Of the bunch we’ve talked about today, I think Rich Rod has the best path to success. He’s already shown he can still coach at a high level at Jacksonville State - just look at their record. He knows West Virginia, has high-powered boosters on his side and is ready to go. Frost is a good hire, and Belichick is a major question mark that will dominate the headlines like Sanders did at Colorado.
One thing’s clear: this carousel is different. Programs are looking outside of the box in the biggest transitional period in college athletics’ history. That’s a good thing. But what’s going to work?
What I’m Reading:
Three-Point Stance by Tyler Schuster: Three-Point Stance is your favorite independent college football newsletter. Come for in-depth analysis and bold commentary, stay for the jokes and memes. An idea hatched after years of 12-hour days glued to the couch, Tyler Schuster puts his passion for the sport on full display, delivering big-picture ideas, weekly previews and gambling nuggets directly to your inbox.
An idea hatched after years of 12-hour days glued to the couch, Tyler Schuster puts his passion for the sport on full display, delivering big-picture ideas, weekly previews and gambling nuggets directly to your inbox.
Tailgators Setup by Brian Lennon, John Crimella, and Gary McDaniel: I’ll be a little selfish on this one and plug a great college football podcast that I was lucky enough to join a few weeks back to talk UEC and SID Sports! Brian, John and Gary are a ton of fun to listen to and break down the weekend to come in a very easy to digest and entertaining way. Be sure to tune into the Tailgators' Setup podcast and subscribe for more great content from them!
Split Zone Duo by Alex Kirshner, Steven Godfrey, and Richard Johnson: You can't beat Alex, Richard and Godfrey. They're on the front lines breaking news and creating the best content in the game. I 100 percent recommend SZD for anyone into college football and Steven Godfrey hating your team. They’re mostly a podcast publication, but sometimes being able to listen to three well-informed guys talking about college football is what you need in your life.
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