
Michigan and associated individuals have reached a deal with the NCAA enforcement staff on punishment for the program yesterday, April 16, according to the NCAA Committee on Infractions. The punishment includes “three years of probation for the school, a fine and recruiting restrictions…” against the program as well as “one-year show-cause orders” against the participating individuals.
Obviously, this is a big deal, especially for a program going through some level of upheaval like Michigan. The Wolverines have a largely new coaching staff, with Jim Harbaugh and defensive coordinator Jesse Minter off to Los Angeles and the NFL and last year’s interim head coach Sherrone Moore taking over officially. There are also a majority of the starting lineup off to the NFL, with 18 players invited to the Scouting Combine.
That’s not to say the cupboard is bare in Ann Arbor, but the Wolverines certainly need some help, and this punishment doesn’t help their case one bit.
The crimes and the sentence
It’s easy to get mixed up on which Michigan investigation this is from. According to the NCAA Committee on Infractions press release, the violations stem from three main issues: (1) illegal contact with recruits during the COVID-19 recruiting dead period, (2) illegal tryouts, and (3) exceeding the number of coaches engaged in program activities with players.
Further Reading on the other Michigan scandals/investigations
All told, the charges amount to a Level I for the school and Level II for the unnamed individuals. While a Level I charge is the highest classification that the NCAA Committee on Infractions can lobby against the school, Michigan’s willingness to cooperate with the investigation and reach a settlement on the punishments goes a long way in limiting the sanctions.
Still, this punishment isn’t to be ignored. It does carry weight. While the fine is undisclosed, and most of the coached given a one-year ban are on the Chargers staff with Harbaugh, the probation is most concerning here.
An easy comparison to NCAA probation is probation once an individual is released from prison. The NCAA will watch over the program’s shoulder for the probationary period, requiring constant reports to the Commitee on Infractions to ensure compliance with NCAA bylaws and regulations. Oftentimes, this can also include on-campus NCAA presence to watch over the sanctioned programs.
It’s important to note that this punishment does not include any postseason bans, television bans, or loss of scholarships. I assume that is part of the settlement where Michigan and Athletic Director Warde Manuel admitted guilt in the case.
What does that mean with the other Michigan investigations?
This is where things start to get interesting.
Michigan does have other pending cases with the Committee on Infractions. While they were brought after this one, which stems from a January 2023 Notice of Allegations, they also arise before the probationary period begins.
But those pending cases are a lot worse than having a few extra on-field coaches for practices.
There is a Level I charge against former head coach Jim Harbaugh for deceiving NCAA investigators. It’s clear that Michgian is attempting to distance themselves from Harbaugh’s alleged transgressions, agreeing with the Committee on Infractions that “the underlying violations demonstrated a head coach responsibility violation and the former football head coach [Harbaugh] failed to meet his responsibility to cooperate with the investigation.”
With this case pending moreso against Harbaugh than Michigan, though, I don’t think it amounts to much for the Wolverines. With Harbaugh off to the NFL, there isn’t much the NCAA can do in this case. He’s not under their jurisdiction. So, the Committee on Infractions separated the case, and is still deciding on what to do with Harbaugh’s alleged deceit.
What’s more interesting, though, is the pending investigation related to the sign stealing scandal and everything Connor Stalions.
Again, a lot of the major players are no longer in Ann Arbor, but this does apply to the current staff. While there hasn’t been an official Notice of Allegations related to the advanced scouting scheme, we can assume it will be a bomb when it does drop. This is unprecedented to the level that Big 10 commissioner Tony Pettiti lobbied a three-game suspension against Harbaugh before any investigation was completed.
Moore, as offensive coordinator, may have been involved in the Stalions scheme. He may not have. We don’t have that information yet, but you bet the NCAA is going to continue to investigate anyone and everyone involved in the program to get to the bottom of one of the biggest on-field scandals in college athletics.
Either way, this second case puts Michigan in a perilous position. First, this is an unprecedented crime. Could the Wolverines face the dreaded “Lack of Institutional Control” charge? If Moore and a majority of the coaching staff was involved in and funding Stalions’ scouting excursions, it’s not out of the question.
However, Michigan should be more worried about the “repeat violator” legislation. This, rather than Lack of Institutional Control, is the kiss of death. For it is the repeat violator legislation that truly acts as the death penalty.
Come on, they can’t face the Death Penalty, right?
It’s unlikely, but still a possibility. Let’s break down what the NCAA lays out as the requirements for the repeat violator legislation to kick in:
The repeat-violator legislation (“death penalty”) is applicable to an institution if, within a five-year period, the following conditions exist:
Following the announcement of a major case, a major violation occurs and
The second violation occurred within five years of the starting date of the penalty assessed in the first case
But does this apply to Michigan? Let’s check the timeline:
January 5, 2023: Michigan receives a Notice of Allegations for five charges related to COVID dead period recruiting violations, better known as “Hamburgergate.”
August 21, 2023: Michigan self-imposes a three-game suspension on Harbaugh to open the season relating to Hamburgergate
October 18, 2023: The NCAA notifies Michigan and the Big 10 that they have received allegationst that the Wolverines were embroiled in a complex sign-stealing scheme. One day later, it is revealed that Connor Stalions is at the center of these allegations.
November 6, 2023: The Big 10 notifies Michigan that it could be facing discipline from the conference in the sign-stealing scheme
November 16, 2023: Michigan, the Big 10, and Harbaugh agree to a settlement where the conference drops its investigation into the program and Harbaugh takes a three-game ban.
April 16, 2024: The NCAA Committee on Infractions places the Wolverines on probation relating to Hamburgergate.
Following the timeline, the first box is checked. A Level I violation is handed down in Hamburgergate on January 5, 2023, with the sign-stealing case breaking later that year. That’s well within the five-year window laid out by the NCAA.
However, the second point is where Michigan likely avoids the death penalty. While the football espionage case broke after Hamburgergate, it was still before any penalties were assessed in that case. So, the Wolverines should be immune from the death penalty.
Does this affect the Wolverines in 2024?
In all reality, I don’t think that this will affect Michigan too much going forward. Probation isn’t the best place to be, but many programs have been placed under probation and come out on the other side fine.
As with any major violations, especially when they come in bunches like the Wolverines had in 2023, the death penalty is thrown around. But, as we covered, it’s not likely in this case. There isn’t enough, and the school as done a good job of distancing themselves from Harbaugh, Stalions, and other staffers that have been the subject of various investigations.
I’m more worried about how Michigan replaces 18 NFL bound players with a new staff. Sure, the off-field shenanigans are incredibly entertaining, but this is a new staff with new players. They won’t face much from the NCAA Committee on Infractions until they get to the bottom of what Stalions was up to with who. And even then, it could all just turn out to be a nothing burger.
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Everyone knows Michigan went all in to get their championship and if that's not going to be taken away with all of the stacked sanctions then everything is basically a "cost of doing business." Seems very much like the Houston Astros World Series situation a few years ago. On the other hand, if they get the death penalty then the Super League thing seems (even more?) likely since all it will take is one domino to fall. Somehow Michigan has the leverage in this situation.