Hot or not?: Gauging the temperatures of six coaches' seats
Which coaches are fighting for their lives and which ones have some fight left in the tank?
Southern Miss got the coaching carousel kicked off by firing Will Hall following a 14-30 mark in four seasons. It’s not quite Black Sunday time in college football, but the heat is starting to turn up. Since then, ECU and Rice have also moved on from their head coaches.
Which seats are really, truly hot? And which ones are not? Before we get into it, let’s be clear that this is not things that I’m hearing from inside sources and just speculation on my part. Don’t take it as gospel (unless I’m right, then certainly tell everyone I had it first).
Hot: Dave Aranda - Baylor
Aranda’s been the most talked about guy on the hot seat this side of Billy Napier, but the Bears’ head man is very much fighting for his job.
He almost lost it last season after a 3-9 finish in 2023, but a pesky extension after a 12-2 Big 12 Champion season in 2021 made the buyout too large for Baylor brass to handle.
The Bears are a non-factor in the Big 12 and playoff races yet again, but sit at an improved 4-4 eight games in. He sits below .500 at 27-29 with the Bears and an even worse 17-25 in Big 12 conference play.
Aranda’s job status very much boils down to how Baylor’s final four games go. If he can get this team to a bowl game, he might be safe. If they implode down the stretch, so will Aranda’s tenure. I don’t know if Baylor will be hunting for an upgrade regardless of their finish this year, but I wouldn’t expect Aranda to be in Waco come 2025.
Not: Ryan Day - Ohio State
Come on guys, this is ridiculous.
Yes, Ohio State fired John Cooper in 2000 after a pudrid 2-10-1 record against Michigan, but Ryan Day isn’t there. Lost in the shuffle is that Cooper lost both the Michigan game and the following bowl game in six of his 13 seasons.
This is not an apples to apples conversation here. While Cooper did post a great win-loss record in Columbus - 111-43-4 - Day’s has been similarly impeccable at 62-9. Sure, neither one has won the big games and have struggled with Michigan, but Cooper had a lot of issues Day didn’t.
Take, for example, the academic issues that plagued the latter half of the Cooper era. Then athletic director Andy Geiger cited “concerns about discipline, competitiveness, academic pursuits…” when he announced Cooper’s firing. You have to keep in mind, Ohio State is a proud school of their academics and flaunts their AAU status and Wexner Medical Center as much as possible. Was that an excuse to move on from Cooper instead of the Michigan losses? Sure, but it was just as much a contributing factor as Cooper not winning the big game.
Day, for his part, has the program as healthy as ever. They’re consistently ranked in the AP and CFP Top 10. Day’s teams have set program records for Academic All-Big Ten Conference honorees, in Graduation Success Rate and in Academic Progress Rate. Those are important to the administration and work in Day’s favor.
But more importantly - who would replace him? Chip Kelly doesn’t want to be a head coach, so he’s out. Brian Hartline, the previous heir apparent was overmatched as an offensive coordinator. You’re not going to lure away a Dan Lanning, so who do you turn to? Chances are, you’re not going to find someone like Day.
Hot: Trent Dilfer - UAB
I was planning on talking about Dilfer before I read Rodger Sherman’s piece about him, but that just solidified his spot on this list.
You can really compare Dilfer to one guy as an antithesis of what he stood for: Deion Sanders. That’s right. Dilfer and Coach Prime are both NFL guys that went onto successful media careers and had some very successful non-FBS experience - Deion with Jackson State at the FCS and Dilfer with the Elite 11 quarterback academy.
But Deion put the work in and built a program, even if it came with controversy. Dilfer just took a sledgehammer to UAB’s previous successes.
The Dilfer era has only been two seasons, but it’s an unmitigated disaster. His team has failed on the field to the tune of 5-14 at the time of this writing, and he’s failed off the field in press conference, donor meetings and in team meetings. As Rodger pointed out, he’s more likely to do a media spot for his daughter’s volleyball team at another school than his football program:
“And in a podcast released by the school itself, Dilfer sat down with Ingram, the UAB AD, and gave a recruiting pitch for the University of Louisville’s volleyball program, where his daughter plays. When Ingram gently pushed back and said volleyball recruits should also consider UAB, Dilfer weirdly doubled down, saying “they’re pulling from different buckets”—essentially, that he should be allowed to hype Louisville’s program over UAB’s because Louisville’s recruits are so much better that they’d never consider UAB. Thanks, Trent, that fixes everything.” - Rodger Sherman
It’s best for everyone involved to start this over. UAB can get an actual coach in the door that knows how to coach collegiate football and Trent Dilfer can go back to doing whatever Trent Dilfer does.
According to the Tuscaloosa News, Dilfer has a $4.1 million buyout on the rest of his contract. That’s a tough pill to swallow for a Group of Five school, especially one operating in the red like UAB, but the Blazers have a solid donor base. They can make Dilfer go away if they want. It may not be this season, but if there are no answers come 2025, expect Dilfer to see the door.
Not: Lincoln Riley - USC
The first step to Riley staying in the good graces of the USC donors and brass was to reinvent the defense. He’s done that, showing Alex Grinch the door at long last and brought in a competent coordinator in D’Anton Lynn, who has turned around the Trojan unit for the better.
The problem, though, rests on Riley’s shoulders. The Trojans sit at 4-4 in their first season post-Caleb Williams, but the offense has been lackluster, almost. They’re not scoring as much as you’d expect from a Riley team with only 33.3 points per game, though their passing game led by Miller Moss has been solid. Moss himself hasn’t had the best season, but still ranks 26th in total QBR at 74.6 with a 16:6 touchdown to interception ratio.
In fact, this USC team is much better than you’d expect. Despite that 4-4 record, the Trojans rank 19th overall in SP+ and 15th overall in FPI. The ball just hasn’t bounced USC’s way this season.
All of their losses have come by a combined 14 points and all are one-score games. USC sits 1-4 in those one-score games and have dominated their other three contests. This is an anomaly year for Riley and the Trojans. If the pattern continues, then yes, put Riley on the hot seat. But you can’t thrust championship expectations on a coach and then blow everything up because he hit some bad luck in one score games.
This is by far the most balanced Riley-led team, they just don’t have Caleb Williams to bail them out down the stretch. Give him and Lynn a year to grow together and then let’s assess if this was a failure or not.
Hot: Joe Moorhead - Akron
Two things can be true at once. In this case, they’re at odds. The truths being that 1) Joe Moorhead is a good coach, and 2) Akron is a very hard place to win at.
I was really excited for the Zips to land a big-time coach like Moorhead, but things just haven’t worked out for him in the Rubber City. In three seasons with the Zips, Moorhead sits at 6-26 and hasn’t eclipsed two wins in a season or notched multiple MAC wins.
This is a case of the message just not working out. Moorhead is a great offensive coordinator, we can all respect and see that. But the marraige between him and Akron is one that is on its last legs.
Recruiting has been a non-factor. The Zips aren’t a transfer portal threat. Their offense is sluggish and the defense can’t stop a paper bag. Unless Moorhead has some magic fix for that, it’s time for a new voice in the program.
Who would the Zips turn to? In all honesty, I don’t know. This is one of the nation’s hardest jobs with an uber-competitive recruiting hotbed nearby that’s raided by the likes of Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan and better positioned MAC programs like Miami and Toledo.
Not: Billy Napier - Florida
Florida fans seem to really be trying to get Napier out of Gainesville, but I don’t think it’s going to happen this year.
For one, the Gators were dealt an impossible hand with the preseason hardest schedule in the nation. On that schedule? So far, Florida has faced two ranked schools (19 Miami and 8 Tennessee) and have a loss to then-unranked Texas A&M that’s cracked the Top 10 in my most recent rankings. The rest of the way? Four straight ranked games at home against Georgia, at Texas, and two straight home contests against LSU and Ole Miss.
Even with that schedule, the Gators sit at a decently respectable 4-3. With preseason projections pegging them as a four-to-seven win team, they’re still likely to fall in that range.
But credit to Napier because he’s done better than anticipated. Much better. For one, losing starting quarterback Graham Mertz to a torn ACL is bad enough, let alone with a schedule like Florida’s facing. Even more importantly, the Gators are looking surprisingly competent in the face of a tough schedule and losing Mertz.
Having a hyped freshman like D.J. Lagway under center helps that out. He’s had his freshman struggles, which are to be anticipated, but a 62.1 QBR isn’t bad for a quarterback thrust into the heart of an SEC schedule. Toss out the FCS Samford game where he played very well and you still get a solid quarterback against all Power Four competition. Arguably his best game came his past weekend against Kentucky in a big win where he threw for 259 yards. Granted, that was on a 50 percent completion rate and with one interception, but he got the job done and leaned on the running game.
Long story short, Napier’s team has much more life than I would’ve anticipated. I don’t see why you would kick him to the curb after this season. He’s done well enough considering the circumstances. The only question is if Florida does want to consider those circumstances.
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The Day analysis is interesting. I didn’t consider who could replace him, and you would know better than me. From an outsider’s prospective, I also think he’s a great coach. They look “sluggish” this year but are dealing with some key injuries. If they lose to Penn State, ok, it’s two losses but they were due. But lose to Penn State AND Michigan down the stretch, in a down year for UM no less. Then I agree with your comment to Dan that he may actually be on the hot seat. But if they lose to Penn State they could still be in the hunt for an at-large bid. So how can you fire a coach when so much is still at stake? Unless they get blown out (my dream but hit likely lol).
What happens to Ryan Day if OSU finds an innovative way to lose to Michigan for the fourth time in a row?