Historical Portal: The heir apparent
If we change one recruiting decision, does a system simply cease to exist?
Note: This is the third installment of our Historical Portal series - an alternate history experiment with some of the biggest what if’s in recent history. You can find the page hub of all the Historical Portal series as well as the chance to select a topic here.
College football recruiting has always been a hotbed of debate. Rankings and blue chip prospects often define which teams are expected to compete for a National Championship. Or, at least it is for us now.
Back in the late 1990s, recruiting was still a big deal, albeit it wasn’t the full court press it is now. Even back then, though, five-star highly touted recruits were very hot topics, especially in regional recruiting battles.
Our story starts off in Leslie County, Kentucky, where high school senior Tim Couch is putting together an outstanding season. Couch set a host of national passing records in his senior 1995 season at Hyden Leslie County High School, including records in career passing yards (12,104), career passing touchdowns (133) and career passing completions (872) that stood well into the 2010s.
With a career like that and a pro-made 6-foot-5, 215-pound frame, Couch was clearly a major get, even in the pre-commercialized recruiting era. Still, he was named the top high school quarterback in the 1995 recruiting class. In a super regional recruiting era, there were only two main schools in the running for his talents: Kentucky and Tennessee.
In our timeline, Couch ultimately signed with Tennessee and enjoyed a stellar college career culminating as the No. 1 overall selection of the expansion Cleveland Browns in 1999 and a 2024 enshrinement in the College Football Hall of Fame.
A lot has changed since Couch’s heyday with the lights shining on the Kentucky Wildcats, and a lot of it is directly because of what happened in Lexington with Couch slinging the rock. But what if that didn’t happen?
You see, the recruiting battle for Couch between Kentucky and Tennessee was hotly contested. While Kentucky immediately crowned in-state star as their starting signal-caller, Tennessee would’ve gone a different route. That’s because they already had their star: Peyton Manning.
The Vols viewed Couch as the heir apparent to Manning to keep the victories flowing through Knoxville. What if they got their way? Let’s step into the Historical Portal.
Hometown Hero
Tim Couch is sitting on his living room couch, flanked by his dad. Across from him are two coaches hot on the trail of securing Tim’s talents for their future: Tennessee head coach Philip Fulmer and offensive coordinator David Cutcliffe.
The group is talking details about how Couch would fit into Tennessee’s vision. After all, everyone knows that Peyton Manning has the quarterback job locked down. Fulmer and Cutcliffe know that could be a concern for the high school senior lighting up the record books, but they have a plan. Couch would come in, redshirt his first season and learn the collegiate ropes from Manning.
And Couch liked the sound of that. He liked it so much, Couch gave a verbal commitment to Fulmer and Cutcliffe: I’m coming to Tennessee. Only, Couch wasn’t the only one with strong feelings. His father – mid-conversation – leaves the room. The three remaining men hear Couch’s father’s pickup start up and drive off. He just left in the middle of a recruiting conversation.
In a radio appearance with Kentucky Sports Radio, Couch said that Fulmer and Cutcliffe asked if they should wait for his father to return. Couch just shook them off, “He’s not coming back.”
You see, Couch’s father was a staunch Kentucky fan – the other school pursuing his son. Hearing him sign with the Volunteers was too much for him, so he left.
Throughout Tim’s recruiting process, his father was stubborn to the bone. He was insistent Kentucky was the right place for his son, not Tennessee. After his Irish goodbye to Fulmer and Cutcliffe, Couch and his father got into a massive blow up. It was so bad, Couch later recalled, that he moved out into a friend’s house for three days. After that period, Couch came back home, telling his father, “If it means this much for you for me to go to Kentucky, I’ll just go to Kentucky. But if it doesn’t work out, I’m leaving.”
Just like in real life, Couch’s father agrees to his terms and Tim Couch, the number one rated high school quarterback, is Lexington-bound.
He joined the Wildcats for the 1996 season behind incumbent quarterback Billy Jack Haskins in Bill Curry’s triple option scheme. Even though he wasn’t the starter, Couch appeared in seven games his freshman season. And those seven games did not go well. The touted freshman went 32-for-84 passing for an abysmal 38.1 completion percentage. He threw for only 276 yards and one touchdown alongside one interception. He wasn’t even effective running the option, netting a total of negative 26 yards on his 24 rushing attempts.
That deal he made with his father and Curry upon committing to Kentucky was at the forefront of Couch’s mind after his nightmare freshman season. It wasn’t even like the Wildcats were good - only mustering a 4-7 record and a 3-5 SEC record. It was just all around bad.
For all the issues Kentucky had, athletic director C.M. Newton showed Curry the door in mid-October. Couch didn’t even have a head coach for most of his freshman season.
Without a doubt, Couch was looking to transfer. And that offer from Fulmer and Cutcliffe to come back up Peyton Manning and learn from the quarterback looked more and more appealing. Especially with Peyton set to run it back for his senior season in 1997.
Before we go further, we need to point out a major difference between modern college football and how it was in Couch’s time. You see, now, the transfer portal is a huge part of the game and players and teams use it to their best advantage. That wasn’t the case in the late 1990’s. Then, the portal was largely unheard of and there weren’t many players - if any at all - in the portal. Then, players had to sit out a year to establish residency at their new institution before they were eligible to compete.
Even though Couch had a deal to transfer out after his freshman season if he wanted to and was unhappy, he wouldn’t get around the NCAA’s rules saying he had to sit out. Luckily, appearing in seven games in 1996 would’ve allowed him to redshirt during his transfer season.
Now, here’s our point of divergence. The spot this new timeline breaks off. After that 1996 season, Newton came to Couch. He knew his in-demand quarterback was ready to transfer. All he asked Couch was to sit down with the coach they were about to hire.
In our timeline, Couch doesn’t take that meeting. He tells Newton “thanks, but no thanks,” and calls in his deal with Fulmer and Cutcliffe, charting a course for Knoxville, Tennessee. While that doesn’t seem like a huge change, boy does it have some ripple effects.
Ole Smokey
1997 isn’t an eventful season for Couch. After all, he’s required by the NCAA to sit out the season. And Peyton is still there, slinging the pigskin better than anyone in the nation, winning the Maxwell Award as the nation’s best quarterback.
Kentucky, after a 3-1 stretch following the firing of Curry, elected to go with offensive coordinator Elliot Uzelac as their head coach, who was able to retain quarterback Billy Jack Haskins to hopefully keep the magic rolling. Spoiler alert: it didn’t. Kentucky flounders to a similarly bad 3-9 season but Uzelac can’t be shown the door yet.
Over in Knoxville, though, things are doing great. The Manning-led Volunteers finish the season 11-2 and 7th in the final AP Poll after a heart-breaking 42-17 loss to Nebraska in the Orange Bowl.
Manning, out of eligibility, bows out and is selected first overall in the 1998 NFL Draft by the Indianapolis Colts. The rest, at least on Manning, is history.
For Couch, though, his redshirt sophomore season is ready to take off in 1998 as the Volunteers open the season with a No. 10 ranking in the AP Poll. That season – in real life – Tee Martin led the Volunteers to a 13-0 record and national championship. Would Couch repeat that?
Considering Martin didn’t have a season that could touch any of Manning’s with a 57.3 completion percentage, 2,164 yards, 19 touchdowns and six picks, I think Couch would’ve done even better. Sure, it’s not the scheme he would have ran in Lexington, but Fulmer’s Vols showed they could win with a solid quarterback. Couch was more than that.
Let’s assume Couch tops some of those marks, but not quite to Manning levels. How about, say, 3,300 yards, 27 touchdowns and nine picks? Good and respectable, but nothing otherworldly. After all, it was his first true starting season.
And if Martin’s season was enough to capture a 13-0 season and natty, you bet Couch would’ve done the same. All the talk around Knoxville would be if this big-armed Kentucky kid was actually better than Peyton Manning.
That hype would continue with Tennessee starting 1999 – Couch’s redshirt junior season – ranked No. 2 in the AP Poll. The hype would reach a fever pitch when Tennessee knocks off No. 4 Florida on the road and takes the top slot of the AP Poll in Week 2. Again, Couch and the Volunteers start rolling, compiling a perfect 11-0 regular season record and SEC Championship.
But then, the Vols would meet up with No. 3 Nebraska in the Fiesta Bowl. Just a few days into the new millennium, Couch and Tennessee would fall to the Huskers in Tempe. Nebraska, then, would hoist the 2000 National Championship instead of Florida State after their Fiesta Bowl win.
Just like in our timeline, I assume that Couch would head to the NFL after two starting seasons, meaning he’s a 2000 prospect instead of 1999. With Cleveland selecting Donovan McNabb at the top of the 1999 draft following their expansion, Couch isn’t a No. 1 overall selection. Instead, in a very weak 2000 quarterback class, Couch serves as the clear top target. Cleveland passes on him with McNabb in the building, still taking Courtney Brown atop the draft (sorry, Browns fans).
Couch sits in the green room as he waits for his name to be called. He gets the call at No. 5 overall, heading to Cincinnati after the Bengals miss out on Akili Smith in 1999, who the Eagles selected in lieu of McNabb. How would this all affect the NFL? That, I don’t have the answer to. But I’m sure it’ll be a lot different than what we saw in our timeline (maybe hit up your favorite NFL writer to see if they want to live in fantasy land and see how that would change things?).
Tracking the Butterfly
Thus far, it doesn’t seem like there’s been a lot of change with Couch heading to Tennessee instead of Kentucky. His NFL jump is delayed a year, but Tennessee doesn’t pick up any additional natties, just the 2000 SEC championship.
You’d be right to assume that. There isn’t much change here. To find the thread of change, we have to go back. Back to the meeting between Couch and Kentucky Athletic Director C.M. Newton. You know, the one in our timeline Couch denied.
With Couch out the door and a solid end to the season, Kentucky, like we established, rolls with offensive coordinator Elliot Uzelac as their head coach. That is not what happened in the real timeline, though.
It’s that meeting that Newton called to introduce Couch to Kentucky’s next head coach that is the true butterfly effect here. That man wasn’t Elliot Uzelac. It was some dude, an unheralded coach from Division II Valdosta State. That man was Hal Mumme.
If you truly know ball, you know the name. Mumme is an all-time legend and pioneer in the college space, simply because of his offensive acumen. He birthed a new system that would go on to sweep the nation by storm. That system? The Air Raid.
Mumme didn’t care one bit about the run. He knew passing was the way to success. And, in that meeting with Couch, he told the rising sophomore that they were going to sling the rock 50 times a game. That was enough to sell Couch to stay. Newton gave Mumme the keys to the program and he brought with him his assistants from Valdosta State. Guys that you’ve probably heard of like offensive coordinator Mike Leach, graduate assistant Sonny Dykes, and others. Other Air Raid aficionados like Dana Holgorsen, Neal Brown and Shannon Dawson also worked under Mumme at some point.
If we expand the tree out further, we can see other notable coaches like Art Briles, Kliff Kingsbury, Josh Heupel, Dave Aranda, and Kirby Smart descending and working through the Mumme tree.
For all intents and purposes, Newton went down to Valdosta State to nab Mumme because of Couch, wanting to maximize the talent of his quarterback. If Couch left, would Mumme ever leave Valdosta? He wasn’t a world-beating coach – the Blazers were only 40-17-1 under him in the Division II ranks. Surely someone that’s an assistant or even an FCS coach would draw more interest than Mumme?
We see it all the time where lower-level schools try some wild offensive scheme and hope it becomes the next big thing. We saw that just a few years ago when Kevin Kelley –affectionately dubbed “The Coach Who Never Punts” due to his unique approach that included playing like a teenage Madden player by never punting, always onside kicking and always going for two – was hired from the high school ranks by FCS Presbyterian College. And sure, Kelley’s system worked in high school, but it was a disaster in his one season at Presbyterian, with the Blue Hose (yes, that’s their actual name) going 2-9 in his lone season.
I’d wager that with Couch heading out the door and the Wildcats finding under Uzelac, Newton doesn’t try to find some wild scheme that works for his gunslinging freshman. Instead, they stay the course and continue to be, well, Kentucky.
But where does that put us? That is a great question.
Without Kentucky pivoting to Mumme, does the Air Raid architect even get an FBS shot? I don’t think so. Like I said before, Valdosta State under Mumme wasn’t particularly good. Sure, 40-17-1 is a respectable record, but the Blazers had no postseason credentials, just a host of shattered records. Those shattered records are fun, don’t get me wrong, but there wasn’t on-field success.
So no, Mumme never makes the jump to the FBS. Does that effectively kill the Air Raid as we know it and completely alter modern football history? Also no.
You see, Mumme had one assistant with him at Valdosta State and later Kentucky that was a great coach by his own right. That would be the late, great pirate Mike Leach. Leach was named the 1996 Division II Offensive Coordinator of the Year by American Football Quarterly as the Blazers annihilated all kinds of passing records across the school, conference and national record books. That accomplishment on its own would’ve drawn some eyes to the unique Blazer offense and the unique man calling the shots next to Mumme. I think Leach would still get his chance to prove the worth of the Air Raid.
It would just come much, much later. Kentucky’s move to bring in Mumme, Leach and company was one bred from desperation to keep the hometown hero Couch at home and away from the hated Tennessee. There isn’t a lot of rational thinking to back up the Mumme hire, but it certainly worked out well for the Wildcats. Would it take a similar stroke of desperation for someone to take a chance on Leach?
I think so. Eventually, Leach would want out of Mumme’s shadow and likely would take a FCS role as either an offensive coordinator or offensive line coach. From there, it would build up. Because Leach is a legitimate all-timer in the modern coaching ranks, he would make it. But, instead of the introduction of the Air Raid alongside Tim Couch in the late 1990’s, when would Leach finally get to showcase the system that changed everything?
That, unfortunately, is something that I can’t guess at. At least, reliably. If we envision Leach making a few stops in the FCS ranks at about 3-5 years at each stop before hitting the FBS, we’re landing in the mid-2000s. Instead of Leach building up his massive coaching tree at Texas Tech, he’s just getting started by the time Michael Crabtree should’ve been stunting on Texas defenders.
That sets back the development of modern offenses incredibly. We don’t see the Big 12 shootouts that we all knew and loved throughout the 2010’s. Instead, the college football world stays where it was, in ground-and-pound, pro-style systems. I know Kirk Ferentz for one would feel right at home.
So, in a final overlook, the decision for Tim Couch to stay at Kentucky instead of transferring to Tennessee was a monumental one. One that ushered in a new era not just for college football, but all football.
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