CFB Bracketology: Week 9
Breaking down conference and at-large races with playoff stakes
We’re nine weeks in, and as you’ve seen from my rankings, the pictures are starting to come into focus. With teams almost exclusively playing in conference games now, the playoff picture will only grow clearer as each week passes.
But this is a new playoff era. The 12-team playoff is here. As a refresher, here are the criteria the selection committee will use to choose the 12 programs heading to the postseason field:
Five highest ranked conference champions. Note these do not have to be the Power Four and one Group of Five. These are just the flat five best.
Seven at-large teams as determined by CFP rankings.
The top four conference champions, regardless of conference, get bye weeks.
With that said, here’s how the bracket currently stands with my Week 9 rankings:
But which teams are threatened? Let’s get into the conference races.
ACC
In Right Now: Miami*, Clemson
In The Hunt: SMU, Pittsburgh, Duke, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Notre Dame^
Pray for Chaos: Georgia Tech, Louisville, Boston College
In the immediate, there’s a two-horse race in the ACC landing both Miami and Clemson in the playoff. They don’t have a regular season game, so I anticipate they’ll meet in the ACC title. The winner will be in a great shot for the bye.
Of those fully in the hunt, only SMU and Pitt are within reach of an at-large bid. They’ll play each other November 2, which will cull the herd here more. Duke, Syracuse, and Virginia Tech each have only one loss, which floods the conference title race. Syracuse and Virginia Tech will play November 2 and eliminate one of them. Syracuse also closes the season at home against Miami. Virginia Tech and Duke play November 23. Head-to-head decisions will be the determinant here, but a loss to this tier will relegate them to the pray for chaos.
Speaking of chaos, two losses all but eliminates you. These three teams need to win out. Louisville and Boston College fight to stay alive this weekend. The Cardinals have a trip to SMU and season-closing game against Pitt left. Georgia Tech has a lighter schedule with a trip to Virginia Tech and home game against NC State bookending a game against Miami. Louisville has both Clemson and Pitt left.
I lumped Notre Dame here because they play an ACC-heavy schedule and are an ACC program for their other sports. Right now, they’re one spot out of the playoff but with ranked matchups against Army and Navy looming, they can make or break that resume. Going unbeaten, like we assume they will, puts them in striking position. A loss will all but doom them.
Big Ten
In Right Now: Oregon*, Penn State, Ohio State
In The Hunt: Indiana, Illinois
Pray for Chaos: Wisconsin, Nebraska, Iowa, Michigan, Washington
The Big Ten looks like a three-bid league right now. Oregon is the presumptive number one after their win at Ohio State, but the Big Ten boasts three top-five teams in my most recent rankings. Ohio State and Penn State play November 2, but I don’t think a loss will fully eliminate either team.
Indiana is perfect, and will have to carry that perfection for either an at-large bid or conference championship spot. That’s the cross unheralded programs have to bear. They’ve got some resume-boosting games against Washington, Michigan and Ohio State left, though. Losing to Ohio State won’t eliminate the Hoosiers, but they’ll need the rest. The same goes for Illinois, who plays Oregon this weekend. They won’t be able to weather another loss, even if it’s from the No. 1 Ducks.
The chaos tier here is really holding on for hope. These teams have either one or two losses, but don’t have much resume building left. For these teams, they’ll need to go unbeaten to get in. That’s complicated by matchups like Wisconsin-Iowa (Nov. 2) and Wisconsin-Nebraska (Nov. 23), not to mention their games against Oregon, Ohio State and Penn State.
Big 12
In Right Now: Iowa State*, BYU
In The Hunt: Kansas State, Cincinnati, Colorado, Texas Tech
Pray for Chaos: Arizona State, TCU, West Virginia
The Big 12 is a surprising two-bid league with undefeated Iowa State and BYU and with the two programs not scheduled to play in the regular season, we have a similar path that the ACC does.
Behind them, though, is a much better tier of one-loss teams. Kansas State already lost to BYU, but controls their destiny with games against Cincinnati and at Iowa State in the last two weeks of the season. Cincinnati fully controls their destiny, with a remaining schedule of at Colorado, vs. West Virginia, at Iowa State, at Kansas State, vs. TCU. Colorado has the lightest scheduled of the bunch, but needs wins in the next two weeks against Cincinnati and Texas Tech. Speaking of the Red Raiders, they’ll play Iowa State, Colorado and West Virginia. Whew! Did you get all that?
That doesn’t factor in the potential spoilers like two loss programs Arizona State, TCU and West Virginia. They’ll all see at least two teams ranked above them, so they’ll need to win out and have some help to get into the playoff. For anyone aside from the unbeatens and Kansas State, that’ll have to be through conference championship win.
SEC
In Right Now: Georgia*, Tennessee, Texas, LSU
In The Hunt: Texas A&M, Missouri, Vanderbilt
Pray for Chaos: Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Ole Miss
The SEC is a mess, with no true unbeaten team. Right now, despite being ranked third in the actual standings, I’m projecting Georgia to win the conference and get a bye. At-large bids go to Tennessee, Texas and LSU, all of which are still in the thick of a bloody SEC title race.
Texas A&M is unbeaten in-conference and has a wide-open path to Atlanta. They only have two ranked opponents left, each of which they see at Kyle Field (LSU on Oct. 26 and Texas Nov. 30). If they win out, a playoff bid is theirs even if they lose a conference championship game. Missouri has one ranked opponent in a trip to Alabama this weekend. Vanderbilt has three, with Texas at home this weekend, a trip to Death Valley to play LSU Nov. 23 and a season-closing battle at home against Tennessee Nov. 30.
This will be a chaotic conference, so as long as the chaos-tier teams keep winning, they have a legitimate shot. Alabama has two losses already, but will see Missouri and LSU in the next three weeks. Arkansas has losses to Texas A&M and LSU already, but a win over Tennessee that could be a big tiebreaker help. They’ll still play Ole Miss (Nov. 2), Texas (Nov. 16) and Missouri (Nov. 30). Florida, for as much hate as they got earlier this season, isn’t out of it either, but will have to get ready for murderer’s row after a bye this week featuring four straight ranked opponents before a rivalry game against Florida State. Ole Miss is the lowest down in the standings, but the best of this bunch on paper. They have an at large bid as a fall-back, but one more loss will sink them. They’ll see Arkansas, Georgia and Florida the rest of the way.
Group of Five
In Right Now: Boise State*
In The Hunt: Army*, Navy, Memphis, UNLV
Pray for Chaos: Tulane, Liberty*, Louisiana*, Western Michigan*
Right now, Boise State gets the nod based on their rankings. If we just take a look at my top 25, there’s four teams in the hunt. Army and Navy are unbeaten and ranked. Each one will face Notre Dame non-conference and will have a game or two against each other. Army has the conference leader star based on their 6-0 American record, compared to Navy’s 5-0. Memphis is also lurking in the American at 4-1 in league play, but a loss to Navy is a blemish on an otherwise perfect record. UNLV gets their shot at Boise State this weekend and a win will likely put the Rebels in the drivers’ seat, provided no other chaos happens.
Of the next tier, Tulane will have to sort through Army, Navy and Memphis in the American if they want to get in. Based on the top of that conference, it’s possible the American champ gets a bid if something wild happens to Boise State or UNLV. Liberty is already creeping into the AP Polls by receiving votes, but will have to go unbeaten the rest of the way to truly threaten. The Sun Belt hasn’t been the best this year with no teams getting a win over an AP or USA Today ranked team. I’d say Louisiana is their best hope, but could see someone else creating chaos and working their way into this tier. Western Michigan is the MAC’s only hope right now, but I think MACtion is going to take a year off from the playoff after Buffalo dashed the hopes of both Northern Illinois and Toledo.
What I’m Reading:
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Well, Syracuse’s performance last night certainly took the wind outta their sails!
Is Pitt trending to be a safer pick than Miami? I’d have to think Miami has more talent but—and it pains me to admit this—Pitt has looked more dominant.
Also, I know Pitt isn’t Indiana but they also have no recent success to fall back on. Do they need to go unbeaten to get in or can they do it with one loss, conference championship, etc.?
Lots of Pitt content for ya!!