CFB Bracketology: Conference Championships
Breaking down conference and at-large races with playoff stakes
The regular season ended with a bang and we still don’t have the playoffs fully decided. Most of the conference championship games this weekend will have a major impact on the playoff landscape and multiple bids are still up for grabs.
As a refresher, here are the criteria the selection committee will use to choose the 12 programs heading to the postseason field:
Five highest ranked conference champions. Note these do not have to be the Power Four and one Group of Five. These are just the flat five best.
Seven at-large teams as determined by CFP rankings.
The top four conference champions, regardless of conference, get bye weeks.
With that said, here’s how the bracket currently stands with my Week 9 rankings:
ACC
Locks: None
In Right Now: SMU*
In The Hunt: Clemson
Pray for Chaos: Miami
I think the ACC is a one-bid league, but I won’t rule out two bids if Clemson upsets SMU. The Mustangs may have a strong enough resume to get in if there’s other chaos and the committee hangs to their “conference championship games won’t punish participants” line. But I think that’s easier said than done.
Miami sits at 14th in my poll two spots out of the playoffs. I think they’re out, personally, but losses by SMU and Boise State could open the door to Miami.
Conference Championship: SMU v. Clemson
Big Ten
Locks: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon*, Penn State
In Right Now: None
In The Hunt: None
Pray for Chaos: None
That’s right, I’m hammering down the locks on the Big Ten. I don’t see a path where all four teams don’t get in, especially with the Big Ten Championship hosting two top four teams.
The only thing up for debate is if Penn State or Oregon gets the bye week. I like Oregon in the head-to-head conference championship, but that’s just me.
Conference Championship: Oregon v. Penn State
Big 12
Locks: None
In Right Now: Arizona State*
In The Hunt: Iowa State
Pray for Chaos: None
The Big 12 was solidified as a one-bid league with all the wonderful chaos it wrought down the stretch. With both teams sitting at the bottom of my rankings, it’s unlikely they can jump into a bye week seed without a Boise State loss.
So, the crux of this comes down to who wins the conference championship? Chalk this up as a play-in game a la the NCAA Basketball Tournament’s First Four. Winner moves on, loser gets a bowl.
Conference Championship: Arizona State at Iowa State
SEC
Locks: Tennessee, Texas*
In Right Now: Georgia, South Carolina
In The Hunt: None
Pray for Chaos: Alabama
Let’s get this out of the way first: yes, the CFP Committee ranked Alabama higher than South Carolina. Clearly, I disagree with that, but that’s how it is, I guess. I don’t get a vote at that table.
I think Texas is a lock regardless of if they lose to Georgia a second time, despite their lackluster schedule. They’ve been highly-ranked all season and the committee has said they won’t hold a conference championship loss against a team. Once again, we’ll see if that rings true. Tennessee, ranked at 10 in my latest rankings, is also a lock without a game this week. They could bounce around seeding, though.
Two-loss Georgia also has that committee defense on their side, but I think they’re more at risk of getting bounced than Texas simply because of their three losses. South Carolina (or Alabama if you use the CFP Rankings) is also one upset away from getting knocked from the field.
Alabama (or South Carolina if you use the CFP Rankings) is on the outside looking in and would need multiple upsets to get in. It’s unlikely, but I wouldn’t rule it out for the committee.
Conference Championship Texas v. Georgia
FBS Independent/PAC-12
Locks: Notre Dame
In Right Now: None
In The Hunt: None
Pray for Chaos: None
With a No. 2 Ranking in my Conference Championship Week Top 25, Notre Dame has clinched a home playoff game in the first round. Now, Marcus Freeman’s Fighting Irish can rest up and start to gameplan.
Group of Five
Locks: None
In Right Now: Boise State*
In The Hunt: UNLV
Pray for Chaos: Army*, Louisiana*, Tulane
I really and truly think the Mountain West Championship between Boise State and UNLV is a playoff play-in game. But could the Broncos still survive a loss to UNLV? That’s harder to consider, especially since Boise has failed the eye test in recent weeks, but a Top 20 loss in a conference championship, again by the Committee’s own words, shouldn’t hurt them too much. I’ll call their bluff on that and say that it’s win or go bowling here.
In the outside scenario that UNLV pulls an upset and some unforeseen chaos envelops the rest of the nation, the American champion or Louisiana could snipe the fifth conference champion auto-bid. However, with UNLV ranked higher than each of these teams, I’d say it’s a virtual impossibility.
Conference Championships: Boise State v. UNLV (Mountain West), Army v. Tulane (American), Louisiana v. Marshall (Sun Belt)
What I’m Reading:
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An idea hatched after years of 12-hour days glued to the couch, Tyler Schuster puts his passion for the sport on full display, delivering big-picture ideas, weekly previews and gambling nuggets directly to your inbox.
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