Alabama HC Nick Saban retires
What to make of the seismic shift in college football's power structure
Wednesday was not supposed to be a news day. In fact, I wasn’t even planning on getting back to writing yet as I settle in with my new job. But this topic may be the biggest we can cover since I launched SID Sports one year ago: Alabama’s Nick Saban is retiring.
This is absolutely massive. While, on its surface, the sport is losing it’s potentially Greatest of All Time on the sidelines, there’s so much more to take out of this. We’ll break down each part individually to get the full picture of what comes next post-Saban in college football.
Let’s start with the obvious: Who coaches Alabama now?
The question is obvious, but the answer is far from that.
The best modern parallel I can give to a major surprise head coaching move like this was when Lincoln Riley left Oklahoma for USC. Riley, obviously, is not the same caliber coach as Saban, but still checked a lot of boxes: A blue-blood program; a well-regarded recruiter and player developer; name recognition for even the casual fans of college football; and a perennial playoff contender without a coach.
This is going to be so much more.
First, there isn’t an heir apparent on the staff this season. The Nick Saban Coaching Rehabilitation Program didn’t have any entries this year, with Tommy Rees and the also-retiring Kevin Steele being the biggest coaching hires for the Tide this past offseason.
Now that we can assume that Alabama is going to hire out of the program, who should they consider?
The biggest name being floated now is Oregon’s Dan Lanning. Lanning has plenty of SEC pedigree as Georgia defensive coordinator under Kirby Smart and defensive graduate assistant at Alabama in 2015. His Oregon teams have been a lethal combination of offense and defense, ranking consistently in the top 25 and competing for a CFP slot, even though they haven’t broken through. One important thing to note: Lanning does have a $20 million buyout from Oregon if he’s poached. Will Alabama boosters pony up that much cash? It’s certainly in the realm of possibility.
If we stay in the Pacific Northwest, Washington’s Kalen DeBoer is another candidate. His buyout—$12 million—is much more manageable, but we’ll see if he’s fully bought into Washington as they along with Oregon, transition to the Big 10 in 2024. Washington has already been an location of interest for Tide brass, as they attempted to lure offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb this past offseason. Grubb and DeBoer have been a packaged deal since their time at NAIA Sioux Falls and have built some of the best offenses in college football at each stop.
Another surprising name to watch: Dabo Swinney. The Clemson head coach seems like a lifer in his position, but Swinney started his career in Tuscaloosa for four years. He’s also had experience filling in after a retirement from when he was named interim head coach at Clemson following Tommy Bowden’s retirement in 2007. Swinney is the definition of old guard, especially with his hesitancy to play in the portal, but that might appeal to Alabama boosters, and they do have history.
The last major candidate I’d consider would be Steve Sarkisian, a graduate of the Saban Rehabilitation Project. He’s built Texas into a playoff program in three seasons and was a major part of Alabama’s offensive renaissance.
Other names to consider include Florida State’s Mike Norvell, Penn State’s James Franklin, New England Patriots’ Offensive Coordinator Bill O’Brien, Ohio State’s Ryan Day and Notre Dame’s Marcus Freeman.
The last coaching candidate to note is more so not a candidate: Lane Kiffin. I don’t see Kiffin entertaining a return to Tuscaloosa, especially as the immediate successor to Saban. There’s a lot of bad blood there, especially as Kiffin wasn’t able to notch a win over Saban’s Tide.
What about the players at Alabama?
Obviously, with this being a Nick Saban-led Alabama team, there are a ton of players that could declare for the NFL Draft. We’ve seen a couple, but that number could grow.
What I’m more interested in is the transfer situation coming out of Tuscaloosa. When a coach leaves a program, a 30-day window opens for any player to enter the portal.
20 Alabama players had already entered the portal in the normal window, which closed January 2.
Now, though, with no coach in place and a 30-day ticking clock, Alabama has a near-crisis on their hands. Players are going to want answers, and they’ll want them soon. There are plenty of other programs that will look much more stable and still have national title expectations, especially Smart’s Georgia. While I’m sure Saban gave advance notice to Alabama about his impending retirement, they need to move quickly to tab a replacement.
Alabama has kept up as a recruiting juggernaut, and all these blue chip prospects signed for one reason: Saban. It’s not because Kevin Steele runs a venerated defense. It’s not because Tommy Rees is an offensive genius. It’s because as long as Nick Saban is on the sidelines, Alabama is expecting a national championship.
Will there be a player exodus now that Saban isn’t there to be the looming, Darth Vader-esque threat over college football? That remains to be seen, but this has become a program-defining offseason across college football.
What other effects does this have on the coaching carousel?
One thing’s for certain: every major college football athletic director has their head coach on the line now. If there’s even the thought of a coach like Lanning, Swinney, or DeBoer bolting, you best believe that the athletic director is talking about extension terms. Sometimes, a massive extension could dissuade a coach from leaving, especially at the top of the sport.
Saban’s retirement has the potential to reset the market for coaching salaries. Every major college football coach and their agent is using this as leverage to get a raise, regardless of Alabama’s interest.
We saw the trickle-down effect of jobs opening like this in 2019 when Riley departed Oklahoma for USC and Brian Kelly spurned Notre Dame for LSU. Alabama is another job like that.
The carousel is open again and we’re all along for the ride. The portal is open again, and we’re somehow on that roller coaster too. Buckle up, because this is going to get wild.