2025 Games of the Slot: Week Five
Breaking down which game to watch at each time slot this weekend
Ladies and gentlemen, it’s time. The week that you had circled when the schedules were announced has arrived. Let’s buckle in and enjoy some great football.
Ranked matchups are abound. Conference races are about to be turned on their head. Hopefully the games remain close, but with these massive matchups, it’s likely.
With so many great games on deck, finding the right ones to prioritize is a tough task. Luckily, you’re here for the SID Sports Games of the Slot, breaking down each timeslot on which game to watch and, if you’re a maniac like me, which ones to fill your multibox with.
As always, all times are in Eastern.
Friday Night
Game of the Slot: 20 TCU at Arizona State (9 p.m., FOX)
So it’s not a ranked-on-ranked game, but it’ll still be a huge matchup for the Big 12 race.
So far, TCU has looked like contenders, sneaking up on their competition just like in that magical 2022 run to the CFP Championship game. The Horned Frog offense behind Josh Hoover ranks 17th in offensive EPA/play and 35th in success rate. Yes, TCU’s defense has been problematic at 113th in defensive EPA/play, especially against the pass. With Arizona State primed to try to exploit the Sam Leavitt-Jordyn Tyson connection against a suspect pass defense, TCU is hoping to turn this into a track meet.
Despite Arizona State’s inexplicable slip up against Mississippi State, the Sun Devils have looked the part of Big 12 contender. Even without their workhorse Cam Skattebo, the rushing attack ranks 25th in EPA/rush behind Kanye Udoh and Leavitt’s legs. The pass game, surprisingly, hasn’t clicked yet. TCU’s porous secondary could be the launching point for that, though. Kenny Dillingham absolutely has to get his offense right in this game for the Sun Devils to be true contenders. The good news is the defense is up to the task. They rank 39th in EPA/play on that side of the ball and will be the toughest unit TCU’s faced this year.
ESPN’s FPI has the game almost 50-50 in who wins and I agree with that. It should be a wild game.
Multi-Box Games: 6 Florida State at Virginia (7 p.m., ESPN); Houston at Oregon State (10:30 p.m., ESPN)
Florida State should roll through Virginia, but Tony Elliott has finally built a strong offense behind Chandler Morris at quarterback. This one has high chaos potential if Morris gets going. Is Houston-Oregon State a must watch? No, as Oregon State ranks among the nation’s worst and Houston is firmly in meh territory. I expect Houston to roll through the Beavers, especially with the Cougars boasting the nation’s best defense by EPA/play (-0.32).
Saturday - 12 p.m. EST
Game of the Slot: 17 USC at Illinois (FOX)
The AP has this as a ranked-on-ranked game, I’m just less than enthused by Illinois after the drubbing by Indiana.
So far, USC has looked the part of a Lincoln Riley-led offense. They’re explosive, ranking second in yards/play (+4.28), and effective, retaining the top slot in offensive EPA/play (0.49) and EPA/pass (0.75). Jayden Maiava has put my concerns to bed and is piloting this offense like nobody else. Granted, they haven’t faced a decent defense yet and Illinois falls into that level, even after Indiana ran roughshod through the Illini all night. There are concerns, as always for a Lincoln Riley team, on defense after Michigan State put up 31, but the peripherals still show a contender-worthy defense under D’Anton Lynn. Let’s see if they can put the pressure on Luke Altmyer like Indiana did.
For Illinois, this is a do-or-die bounce back game. At least it’s at home. Last week absolutely cannot happen again, and to avoid that level of embarrassment, pretty much everything has to improve. But this is a team that has shown they can play better than they did against Indiana. They still rank 52nd in Net EPA/play, even after last week’s disaster. When Luke Altmyer keeps the ball safe, Illinois does well. They’ll have to find a way to establish a rushing game that amounted to a measly two total yards last week, but USC’s front isn’t too imposing on paper. To me, last week wasn’t emblematic of Illinois’s level of play, and they should look better this week.
Multi-Box Games: 19 Louisville at Pittsburgh (ESPN2); Duke at Syracuse (ACC Network); Bowling Green at Ohio (CBS Sports Network)
We’ll spend some multi-box time in the ACC. Louisville-Pittsburgh doesn’t have a ton of hype, but both are dark horse conference contenders. They rank 30th and 33rd in Net EPA/play, so this should be tight. The winner is in a good spot in the conference race. The same can be said of Duke-Syracuse. Both had high hopes and issues arising. Duke already has losses to Tulane and Illinois, hurting their ceiling. Syracuse is going on without standout quarterback Steve Angeli, but Rickie Collins isn’t a bad option. This slot ends in the MAC, where the Bowling Green-Ohio matchup could have some major implications in the conference race. They’re close to dead even in Net EPA/play, even if Ohio is a conference title contender. Plus, Pudge the Cat will be in attendance.
3-4 p.m. EST
Game of the Slot: 2 LSU at 13 Ole Miss (3:30 p.m., ABC)
Here are those ranked-on-ranked matchups I promised.
LSU got off to a slow start and their win over Clemson is fading a bit, but things are looking up for the Bayou Bengals. Blake Baker looks to have a dangerous, attacking defense that Brian Kelly hired him to create. Quarterback Garrett Nussmeier finally looked like himself last week, granted it was against Southeastern Louisiana, but it’s a big step for his recovery from a torso injury that’s plagued him in the early going. There’s still concerns for a rushing game that ranks 117th in rushing success rate, but if Nussmeier is ready to air it out, LSU can move away from the rushing game. That’s why they brought in all those talented receivers, after all.
For Ole Miss, I’m all in on Trinidad Chambliss to lead the team, even if Austin Simmons is healthy. All he’s done since taking the field in relief of Simmons is light up the scoreboard. Chambliss has been one of the nation’s top quarterbacks in his nearly two games of action, ranking 7th in EPA/dropback compared to Simmons’s 40th. But, with any Ole Miss team, you know the offense is good. What about the defense? Good news, Rebel fans, Ole Miss looks elite against the pass, ranking 10th in passing success rate allowed and 18th in EPA/pass allowed. They feel like they can shut down Nussmeier through the air. The problem? They can’t stop the run.
A classic battle of a stoppable force (LSU rushing attack) against moveable object (Ole Miss rushing defense) might be the deciding factor here.
Multi-Box Games: 16 Auburn at 12 Texas A&M (3:30 p.m., ESPN); 9 Indiana at Iowa (3:30 p.m., NBC/Peacock); UCLA at Northwestern (3:30 p.m., Big Ten Network)
I might be more interested in this Auburn/Texas A&M game and it’s schematic matchups. Auburn’s top rush defense is going to force Marcel Reed to throw, but he’s already won games (against Notre Dame) with his arm. Texas A&M’s solid defense will make life hard on Jackson Arnold, just like Oklahoma did last week. Indiana-Iowa is more about if Indiana can keep going after last week’s highs. They should blow out Iowa too, but the Hawkeyes have Phil Parker leading the defense, so that’s easier said than done. Finally, what might be the Sicko game of the year closes the timeslot. Both Northwestern and UCLA should go without a win this season. It’s being played in a temporary stadium on the shores of Lake Michigan. This is going to absolutely atrocious football that will be offensive for non-Sickos to even imagine, let alone watch. I’m going to be locked in.
Wondering where these rankings are coming from? Check out this week’s SID Sports Top 25 and Players of the Week!
6-8 p.m. EST
Game of the Slot: 7 Oregon at 5 Penn State (7:30 p.m., NBC/Peacock)
It’s time to learn about the Big Ten race, isn’t it?
Oregon has looked like a contender, annihilating any lesser program that stands in their path. Dante Moore looks like how he was billed coming out of high school. The defense is suffocating. Dan Lanning’s team has title contender written all over them. There’s just one thing missing: a true test. I’m mostly watching the remade offense in this game, as they’re the main untested bunch. If Dante Moore and his young receiving corps can make magic happen against the Penn State defense, look out for the Ducks to make serious postseason noise.
We all know the script for Penn State. James Franklin can’t win the big one. Everyone is back. It’s time to put up or shut up. Drew Allar is off to another slow start and the Nittany Lion offense is the only non-elite thing I can find in this game, ranking 80th in EPA/play. On the flip side, they rank 22nd in offensive success rate, so maybe there isn’t much to be alarmed about. It could just be Allar, Kaytron Allen, Nicholas Singleton and company are just waiting to unlock that elite gear. If so, it’s a bold strategy. At least Jim Knowles has this defense looking like one of the nation’s best.
This game, right here, is why we love college football. A battle between two teams in the Top 10 in Net EPA/play. A white out at Happy Valley. Interesting storylines. This has Game of the Year potential.
Multi-Box Games: Alabama at 4 Georgia (7:30 p.m., ABC); Appalachian State at Boise State (7:30 p.m., FS1); Arizona at 11 Iowa State (7 p.m., ESPN)
Do I trust Alabama? No. Do they seem to pull up for massive games like this looking like an entirely different team than we’ve seen? Yes, especially under Kalen DeBoer. Last year’s Bama-Georgia game was a Game of the Year contender, this one has similar billing. Appalachian State at Boise State may not have the same bona fides as other games on our schedule, but this could have serious playoff implications. Both teams should be contenders for the conference races. And both are prone to some wild finishes. Speaking of wild, Arizona is unbeaten? Has Brent Brennan kicked Noah Fifita back into the budding star we saw in 2022? It’s time to find out in a game that has gotten a lot more interesting as both teams kept winning.
West Coast After Dark
Game of the Slot: BYU at Colorado (10:15 p.m., ESPN)
It was a rout last year in Bowl Season, so let’s see if Coach Prime has revenge on his mind.
BYU was kneecapped by the Jake Retzlaff scandal and transfer, but the Cougars look unaffected. They have an elite defense, as always, ranking 11th in EPA/play and 12th in defensive success rate. Turning the offense over to true freshman Bear Bachmeier turned out to be the right move for Kalani Sitake, as the BYU offense ranks 11th in passing success rate with the freshman under center. Granted, they didn’t ask a lot out of Bachmeier until last week, but he’s improved each week and is yet to turn over the football. With an elite defense like this, that’s enough to get the Cougars into a good position to make noise in the Big 12.
Colorado, on the other hand, is not in a good position. Despite his insistence he didn’t want to play musical chairs at quarterback, the Buffs have done just that. All of Julien Lewis, Kaidon Salter and Ryan Staub have seen action, and nobody has separated themselves from the group quite yet. The offense has floundered under this lack of direction, ranking 97th in success rate. The defense, which improved so much last season, has also fallen to earth, ranking 95th in defensive EPA/play. It’s not time to hit the panic button yet, especially with how Sanders is recruiting, but some nervousness would be anticipated in this situation.
Multi-Box Game: Louisiana Tech at UTEP (9 p.m., ESPN+)
This should be an interesting matchup in the very least between the UTEP offense, led by former five-star Malachi Nelson, and a surprisingly solid Louisiana Tech defense that ranks 51st in EPA/play and 28th in success rate. That’s going to be the deciding factor here and the strength-on-strength matchup puts this as a surprisingly watchable game.
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