We’ve had a lot of content this week, haven’t we? Well, lock in because that’s how it’s going to go until the postseason rolls around. As a recap, here’s how the SID Sports posting schedule will look like for the next few weeks:
Monday: Top 25 Rankings
Tuesday: Coaching Carousel Recap
Wednesday: General Topics/Typical SID Sports Stuff
Thursday: Bracketology
Friday: Games of the Slot
And now that we went over the playoff picture yesterday, let’s figure out which games to watch this weekend to see those races come to the finish line! Each week, the playoff picture and conference races are dramatically altered. This has been the most chaotic season in recent memory, and no matter what the games look like on paper, we’re going to have fun.
Here’s to another great weekend of college football action! And, as always, all times are in Eastern.
Friday Night
Game of the Slot: California at Virginia Tech (7:30 p.m., ESPN)
It’s not the most glamorous matchup on the face of the earth - especially with Virginia Tech floundering in their post-Brent Pry interim season. But, it’s the best we have.
Let’s start with this: neither of these teams are all that good. But California has some dogs on defense, namely linebacker Cade Uluave and corner Hezekiah Masses. They’ll shine. The real reason to watch this game is to see freshman quarterback Jaron Keawe-Sagapolutele cook. He’s been very strong for a true freshman, flashing elite ball placement and accuracy at all levels. It’s not the most consistent, but JKS can ball in the Bryan Harsin offense. At 7:30 p.m., this is probably the best window for us East coasters to catch the glory of JKS.
Virginia Tech is tough to find much of fun. You get to see Enter Sandman bring the Hokies in? That’s about it. The Bowling Green graduate in me says to keep an eye on tailback Terrion Stewart, who starred for the Falcons before his transfer to Blacksburg this offseason. Kyron Drones hasn’t played too poorly either, it just hasn’t been to spectacular. But, despite all my ragging on the Hokies, ESPN has them at a 74 percent chance to win, so who knows?
Multi-Box Games: Montana at Sacramento State (10:30 p.m., ESPN2); Boise State at Nevada (10 p.m., CBS Sports Network); North Texas at Charlotte (7 p.m., ESPN2)
Our next best game is actually in the FCS ranks. Montana is very good. Sac State hasn’t looked great in Brennan Marion’s first year, but the Go-Go offense is enough reason to turn this game on. Boise is likely to run roughshod over a bad Nevada team, but Chuba Purdy has the opportunity to make it a fun game. Last, but not least, I’m calling for Charlotte to have some upset potential here. Tim Albin’s teams are almost always well-coached, and not that North Texas isn’t, but their loss to South Florida may have taken some wind out of the Mean Green’s sails. I fully expect North Texas to race through Charlotte, but this has scoreboard monitoring potential.
Saturday - 12 p.m. EST
Game of the Slot: 8 Ole Miss at 14 Oklahoma (ABC)
The SEC race is tight as can be. This game should whittle that down a little bit.
Ole Miss couldn’t get the job done in their first real test against Georgia last week, faltering down the stretch and squandering a commanding start. Lane Kiffin has to get his team past that if they want a shot at the playoffs, because a loss here makes it that much harder. On paper, Ole Miss fits into that borderline elite mold. They have the eighth best passing offense that also carries the 14th best success rate. As a team, the Rebels rank 38th in Net EPA/play and 46th in success rate. Good marks, sure, but not elite. They’ve given up a lot of points, not just to Georgia and in the SEC, they’ve played all one-score games. Last week may be a sign of something starting to give in Oxford, or it’s just emblematic of a team that fooled us all.
Speaking of fooled us all, what do we make of Oklahoma? Personally, I’m starting to write off each year’s Red River Shootout as a chaos-born mutant that has no bearing on the rest of the season. Because the Sooners have looked like what people assume Ole Miss is. Their second in the nation in success rate at 17.2 percent. Seventh in Net EPA/play at +0.29. They boast the number one pass defense by EPA/play and tenth best rush defense. Even if John Mateer isn’t fully healthy, Oklahoma’s defense can bully Chambliss or Austin Simmons - whichever Kiffin rolls with - and let Mateer just do enough to win. If Mateer’s feeling healthier like we saw against South Carolina last week, Oklahoma might step up and take over.
Multi-Box Games: 16 South Florida at Memphis (ESPN2); Syracuse at 7 Georgia Tech (ESPN); Kansas State at Kansas (TNT/HBO Max)
The American race is the one I’m most excited for and we get a great match here. Both South Florida and Memphis are offense-first teams and the winner is likely in the driver’s seat for the time being for that final auto-bid into the playoff. Georgia Tech has gone unscathed to this point behind tough running and a physical defense, but Fran Brown has built this Syracuse team to win these games that they’re written off of. We’ll see if Rickie Collins is able to pilot the Orange like Steve Angeli was and pull the road upset. Finally, the Sunflower Showdown is always a fun game. Doubly so when both are fighting for their lives in chaotic, up and down seasons. I honestly have no idea what happens here. You could tell me any combination of stats and results and I’d believe you. That’s the sign of a must-watch game to me.
3-4 p.m. EST
Game of the Slot: 15 Missouri at 11 Vanderbilt (3:30 p.m., ABC)
Somehow, these two teams are the stars of a Top 15 SEC Showdown. And that’s because both are really, really good.
Missouri has flown more under the radar than Vandy has, but that’s how the program likes it. Beau Pribula is 21st in QBR and is playing great ball both with his arm and his legs. Paired with Ahmad Hardy and you get one of the nation’s most elite rushing attacks, ranking 12th in EPA/rush and seventh in rushing yards per game. But you can’t discount the Tiger defense, which many people have. They struggle against the run, but rank 21st in EPA/pass on that side of the ball. Edge rushing duo Zion Young and Damon Wilson II have combined for 10.5 sacks already and will make life difficult for Diego Pavia.
The Commodores know the script: let Pavia and tailback Sedrick Alexander cook. With Missouri markedly worse against the run on defense, that should be the key for Clark Lea’s squad. The passing game is going to be set up by the run and their dynamic tight end duo of Eli Stowers and Cole Spence will cause headaches for the Mizzou defense. The Vandy defense is vulnerable too, especially against the pass where they rank 112th in EPA/passing play. The rush defense is stout, but that will be tested by Pribula and Hardy.
These two teams match up almost perfectly on paper in a rare strength vs. strength game. That often leads to a close battle decided in the final few seconds.
Multi-Box Games: 10 BYU at Iowa State (3:30 p.m., FOX); Baylor at 20 Cincinnati (4:00 p.m., ESPN2); Illinois at Washington (3:30 p.m., Big Ten Network)
The Big 12 race is going to eat up a lot of our games the next few weeks, but that’s because it’s such a good race. BYU has been outstanding so far on defense, but the offense relies on true freshman Bear Bachmeier to get going. Can Iowa State put Bachmeier in a bad situation? That’s a tall task, especially with their two top corners out for the season. We’ll see what Cincinnati’s defense is made of against a potent Baylor offense, but Brendan Sorsby should have no issues with the Bear defense. Classic Big 12 shootout is on deck. In the Big Ten, Illinois-Washington isn’t a flashy matchup, but could come into a big play in the conference race if chaos reigns. Plus, the duel between Demond Williams Jr. and Luke Altmyer has wild unpredictability written all over it.
Wondering where these rankings are coming from? Check out this week’s SID Sports Top 25!
6-8 p.m. EST
Game of the Slot: 3 Texas A&M at 23 LSU (7:30 p.m., ABC)
Is Texas A&M for real? We’ll find out.
The Aggies have played like a top five team so far. Marcel Reed has really grown as a passer as of late and is still as lethal on the ground as always. His high-octane receiving duo of Mario Craver and K.C. Concepcion will be the key focus points. We know Texas A&M is going to try to run the ball behind Reed, Le’Veon Moss and Reuben Owens, but can Craver and Concepcion win on the outside against a strong LSU secondary? After all, defense is the strength in Baton Rouge and Death Valley at night is a daunting task for anyone.
But for it to truly be daunting, the LSU offense has to get going. I’ve given up on them establishing a run game - they rank 104th in EPA/rush and 117th in rushing yards per game. Garrett Nussmeier, it’s time to show if you belong. Yes, Nussmeier has dealt with a host of lingering injuries throughout the season, but if he can play through it, we need to start seeing results. LSU went all-in to make Nussmeier as comfortable in this offense as possible and that just hasn’t been the case. Texas A&M isn’t an elite defense - ranking only 34th in EPA/pass - but that seems insurmountable for the LSU offense. We just saw Nussmeier’s second worst game of the season against Vandy last week. Could it get worse? Or will LSU finally snap out of it and realize they have a playoff-worthy roster?
Multi-Box Games: 24 Michigan at Michigan State (7:30 p.m., NBC/Peacock); 1 North Dakota State at 2 South Dakota State (8 p.m., ESPNU), Wisconsin at Oregon (7 p.m., FS1)
10 years ago, a legend was born on the last play of this rivalry game. Anytime Michigan and Michigan State meet, there will be fireworks. Don’t miss it. We turn to the FCS once again for a Dakota Marker battle between the two best FCS programs right now. South Dakota State has the nations’ fourth longest home winning streak across all of Division I and North Dakota State is the strong program you’ve come to expect. If you put aside any FCS bias you may have, this could be the best game of the entire weekend. On the flip side, Wisconsin traveling to Oregon could be the absolute worst. So why is it here? Wisconsin has been shut out in two consecutive games. Luke Fickell just drew the dreaded vote of confidence. If the third straight shutout happens, you might watch Fickell get fired on the field before a postgame scrum. That’s college football, baby.
West Coast After Dark
Game of the Slot: Colorado at Utah (10:15 p.m., ESPN)
Just one late night game this week.
Colorado is a bit of a mystery in the post Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter era. The offense has stabilized some after settling with Kaidon Salter under center, but they’re still not good, ranking 61st in Net EPA/play. But this defense is capital-B Bad. They rank 116th in defensive success rate and 103rd in defensive Net EPA/play. As a program, Colorado ranks 113th with a negative 3.4 percent success rate. Woof.
Utah hasn’t been the best on-schedule, as we saw in the Holy War. But Devon Dampier should tear through the Buffalo defense like it’s one-ply paper. I mean, just look at the success rate different - Colorado is 113th at -3.4 percent, Utah is 4th at 13.8 percent. You know how this is going to go.
But, there’s always the ghost of the old PAC-12 ready to rear its head and cause chaos at the drop of a hat. Don’t discount that.
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