2025 Games of the Slot: Week 7
Breaking down which game to watch at each time slot this weekend
In the words of Staind, it’s been a while. Sorry for missing last week.
With that out of the way, we’ve had some bangers of games the past two weekends. And this weekend has everything we could’ve asked for: ranked matchups, upset potential, major implications on conference and playoff races. Buckle up, because Week 7 is going to keep the train rolling of great weekends of college football action.
One more thing before we get into it here: yes, the rankings here are my own. No, I didn’t release any rankings the past two weeks. I still compiled them, but the articles never got written. Once again, my bad on that.
But, without further ado, let’s look forward to a great weekend. As always, all times are in Eastern.
Friday Night
Game of the Slot: 18 South Florida at North Texas (7:30 p.m., ESPN2)
As I’m sure you’ll see on this newsletter in the coming weeks, the American race is one I’m super excited about and we get the first primetime installment tonight in Denton, Texas.
The shine on South Florida has been worn off some as their hot start was forcibly cooled off by a very good Miami squad. Still, the Bulls have the makings of a quality American team, and by extension, playoff contender. Byrum Brown hasn’t been the same lights-out quarterback we saw in the early going, but he’s still one of the nation’s most dynamic players when everything goes well. His playstyle meshes perfectly with Alex Golesh’s playcalling. They just have no rushing attack. The Bulls rank 41st in rushing offense, primarily because of Brown’s legs. EPA paints a more interesting picture, with the Bulls’ offense ranking as middle of the road in almost every category. If South Florida wants to contend, now’s the time to show it.
With all the talk in the American resting on USF and Tulane and Navy, North Texas’s 5-0 start has fallen to the wayside. But it shouldn’t, because Eric Morris has another one here. Drew Mestemaker is piloting one of the nation’s most efficient and dangerous offenses, ranking in the top 20 in EPA/rush, early downs EPA/play, success rate, and net field position. The defense is pulling their weight too, bringing the Mean Green to 18th in net EPA/play at +0.27. There is a glaring hole here for the Bulls to exploit: North Texas’s third and fourth down defense, where they rank 127th with a 50.7 percent success rate allowed on those crucial downs.
In a game that factors to be as close as this one, those high-leverage downs will be the deciding factor.
Multi-Box Games: Rutgers at Washington (9 p.m., FS1); Fresno State at Colorado State (9 p.m., CBS Sports Network)
Rutgers is having another Rutgers-like season, but stopping the Washington attack of Demond Williams Jr. and Jonah Coleman is a tall task. All eyes are on Jedd Fisch’s Huskies to keep building up behind their young talent. Over in the Mountain West, we get some potential for fun. Well, maybe not “fun” as Colorado State has looked lifeless so far and Fresno State is in a clear rebuilding year. Oh well, at least the Sickos can have fun here.
Saturday - 12 p.m. EST
Game of the Slot: 9 Alabama at 15 Missouri (ABC)
I’ll be honest, I kinda wrote this game off earlier in the season. But with both programs surging, we get a massive noon kickoff in the SEC.
You can throw out Alabama’s loss to Florida State in Week One, because Kalen DeBoer’s Tide look like a different team entirely. Ty Simpson has had the offense clicking, meshing well with Ryan Grubb after a slow start in Tallahassee. Alabama ranks 15th in Net EPA/play as the offense has caught fire and getting Jam Miller back healthy opens up a previously missing ground attack. The defense is what you’d expect from an Alabama team - ruthless in their attacking and among the best in the nation. Health is getting better on that side of the ball as well, as Tim Keenan III is back in the lineup for the Tide. There’s been a lot of talk that DeBoer hasn’t gotten his Alabama program to look like true contenders. A big win here silences that crowd.
For Missouri, it’s time for the Tigers to truly compete. Eliah Drinkwitz has his offense rolling behind a dynamic Beau Pribula and one of the nation’s best tailbacks in Ahmad Hardy. I am concerned, though, as Pribula has started to falter in recent weeks, tossing an interception in each of his last three outings. Still, even with those concerns, Pribula has played like one of the SEC’s top quarterbacks this season. The Tigers hold the edge on paper, ranking fifth in Net EPA/play at +0.42, well ahead of Alabama’s +0.29 rank. Missouri’s defense will have their hands full with Simpson, Grubb and company, but the Tigers have the firepower to get this done.
Multi-Box Games: 3 Ohio State at 13 Illinois (FOX); Louisiana at James Madison (ESPN2); Toledo at Bowling Green (ESPNU)
The Battle for the Illibuck is back on high alert, as Ohio State’s nation-best defense will go head-to-head with the Illinois offense and Luke Altmyer. The Buckeyes will be clear favorites here, but Illinois has the pieces to pull a Juice Williams-like upset. Over in the Sun Belt, Louisiana at James Madison could be a conference championship preview. The Dukes are rolling, the Cajuns not so much, but Louisiana has the talent to compete if they can put the pieces together. We end this timeslot in Northeast Ohio for the Battle of I-75 between hated rivals Bowling Green and Toledo. The Falcons spent the week crossing off all the “T"‘s on campus and have done well the past few years at pulling rivalry upsets, but have a massive disadvantage to the Rockets on paper. Toledo, though, also had a massive advantage over Western Michigan and we see how that went. All hail Pudge the Cat and the upset-minded Falcons.
3-4 p.m. EST
Game of the Slot: 4 Indiana at 2 Oregon (3:30 p.m., CBS)
Yeah, this is a top five matchup. And it’s well-deserved.
Indiana doesn’t have that same plucky underdog taking advantage of a weak schedule vibe. They’ve annihilated Illinois, who I ranked 13th in my most recent rankings. They escaped Kinnick with a win. Fernando Mendoza is one of the nation’s two best quarterbacks. They rank first in success rate at 24.1 percent. D’Angelo Ponds and Leonard Moore are among the nation’s top cornerback duos and Mikail Kamara is an elite edge rusher. Curt Cignetti’s Hoosiers deserve your respect and attention as a legitimate contender. There’s not anything bad I can point at for this team.
And I can’t find any flaws on Oregon either. Dante Moore is the other half of the nation’s top tow passers and both are likely Heisman frontrunners at this point ahead of John Mateer and Ty Simpson. The Ducks slide in at third in Net EPA/play, one spot behind Indiana. Their respective +0.43 and +0.49 marks are nearly identical. However, Oregon has perhaps the only hole in this matchup: a 57th ranking in defensive EPA/rush. Roman Hemby is the X-factor here, but the Duck defense has the run-stopping prowess to shut him down if they want.
This game has the makings of a heavyweight title bout in a great venue like Autzen Stadium. I fully expect this to go down to the wire and potentially contend for game of the year. Lock in.
Multi-Box Games: 7 Oklahoma at Texas (3:30 p.m., ABC); 20 TCU at Kansas State (3:30 p.m., FOX); Air Force at UNLV (3:30 p.m., CBS Sports Network)
The Red River Shootout is always a tight battle, and the storylines around this game make it better. Is Texas cooked and is Arch Manning a flop? Will John Mateer play for the Sooners and if not, can Michael Hawkins Jr. keep the trail rolling? Over in the Big 12, Kansas State is very much still in the thick of the race despite their poor start, while TCU is trying to assert themselves as a contender. The Kansas State offense working against TCU’s defense will tell us a lot about both teams. Our last game of the slot takes us to the Mountain West, where UNLV is still unbeaten but gets a solid test from Air Force’s suddenly multi-faceted option attack. The Falcons are notoriously hard to get out, can Dan Mullen’s Rebels put them away?
Yet another job has opened up at Arkansas and the SID Sports Coaching Shortlist series broke it down this week:
6-8 p.m. EST
Game of the Slot: 16 Michigan at 14 USC (7:30 p.m., NBC/Peacock)
It doesn’t have the same billing as some of our previous games, but this battle between blue bloods has a lot of bearing on the playoff at-large picture.
Michigan’s loss to Oklahoma is one that can be ignored, especially as the Sooners keep vaulting up the rankings. That leaves Michigan as a potential playoff contender. As we’ve talked about in the lead-up and throughout the season, the Wolverines’ hopes rest on the shoulders of true freshman Bryce Underwood. Anytime Underwood posts a QBR above 60, Michigan has won. His only game below that mark was the loss to Oklahoma. And, sure, that can be true for most teams in the nation, but Michigan is even more so. Justice Haynes is a great back to take the pressure off Underwood, but this isn’t a team with an elite defense like we’ve seen in years past. They’re retooling, and a lot of new starters have growing pains. Against an offense like USC’s, Wink Martindale will have his hands full and have to step up his game.
Speaking of USC, the AP polls dropped the Trojans after a loss to Illinois, but I have both teams still sitting pretty in the mid-tier slog. USC’s offense is legit - they still lead the nation in Net EPA/play and rank eighth in success rate. Jayden Maiava has the nation’s top QBR mark. They rank fourth in scoring offense, third in passing offense and 17th in rushing offense. I’m having a mea culpa moment here because I was dead wrong about the Trojan offense. And I think that’s enough to give them the edge here. Still, a slightly above average defense could be the Trojans’ undoing if Underwood, Haynes and company get hot.
Multi-Box Games: Kansas at 8 Texas Tech (7:30 p.m., FOX); 12 Georgia at Auburn (7:30 p.m., ABC); BYU at Arizona (8 p.m., ESPN2)
Kansas is having a resurgent year and is yet another test for this mercenary-filled Texas Tech team. We don’t know how many tortillas will be raining down this weekend, but Behren Morton is healthy, setting up a duel between him and Jalon Daniels. Georgia looks beatable, Auburn is perpetually disappointing under Hugh Freeze but has a knack for winning games like this. Tell me how it’s going to go here and you’ll probably be wrong. The Big 12 undercard has a great game to deliver in BYU at Arizona. The Cougars are enjoying another top-notch defense, but the growth from Bear Bachmeier has been the true catalyst. Watch them to be ranked with a win over a similarly surging Arizona offense.
West Coast After Dark
Game of the Slot: 17 Arizona State at 22 Utah (10:15 p.m., ESPN)
This game got a lot higher billing in the preseason, but it still has massive Big 12 title and playoff implications.
Arizona State has shaken off a slow start and started to assert their offense, this time through the rushing game. The three-headed rushing attack of tailbacks Rahleek Brown and Kanye Udoh with quarterback Sam Leavitt is one of the nation’s most efficient attacks. The connection between Leavitt and top wideout Jordyn Tyson is already putting up gaudy numbers - 483 yards and seven scores through five games. They just haven’t put it all together in one tight bow like we saw down the stretch last year. A porous rush defense could spell the Sun Devils’ doom, though.
That’s because Utah is built to take advantage of that. A strong offensive line and the dynamic dual-threat of Devon Dampier should attack the weak points of the Arizona State defensive front seven. Utah ranks 33rd in EPA/rush, Arizona State ranks 112th in defensive EPA/rush. That’s a bad matchup. With Utah also ranking 10th in defensive EPA/pass, the plan is likely to force Kenny Dillingham’s Sun Devils into being a one-dimensional team. If that’s the case, Kyle Whittingham’s Utes can drag them into a rock fight with one way out: the body bag.
Multi-Box Game: San Diego State at Nevada (10:30 p.m., CBS Sports Network); Utah State at Hawaii (11:59 p.m.)
San Diego State is finally showing signs of life in the Sean Lewis tenure, and Nevada is one of the nation’s worst teams. This way to the firework show. If you can find the Hawaii nightcap, you know what to expect here. The run and shoot Rainbow Warriors against a Bronco Mendenhall-led Utah State. Passing is aplenty and points will be many. Should be a fun sneaky shootout pick.
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