We’re hitting the one quarter mark on the season and with that comes the opening of conference play in full. To me, conference play is the most interesting part of the schedule. Sure, marquee and absurd non-conference matchups (Oklahoma at Temple, anyone?) can be a lot of fun, but it’s the in-league games that truly matter. There’s true relationships between these programs, for better and for worse.
Even more than that, though, is that each game truly means something. As of right now, most everybody is alive in their conference races. That changes starting this weekend.
So, which games do you need to watch this weekend? And, if you’re a maniac like me, what other games should you monitor? Let’s dive into each slate. As always, all times are in Eastern.
Friday Night
Game of the Slot: Tulsa at Oklahoma State (7:30 p.m., ESPN)
On the surface, this is an atrocious game. And, honestly, that’s why we’re here.
To start, Tulsa is not in a good spot right now. Which was to be expected, as new head coach Tre Lamb was staring down a multi-year rebuild when he took the job. So, the Golden Hurricane ranking 101st in offensive Net EPA/play is no surprise. Their only win so far came over FCS Abilene Christian, and both losses were by multiple scores to Group of Six schools.
So why are we here, watching this? Well, because of Oklahoma State. The Cowboys have been atrocious this season, and if you told me Mike Gundy may not survive the year, I’d believe you. Gundy’s Pokes sit at 1-1 with a win over FCS UT-Martin and a 69-3 shellacking by Oregon after talking smack about the Ducks’ NIL efforts. To be clear, they’re bad. Very bad. As is Tulsa. I think you see where I’m going with this.
It’s not going to be pretty in Stillwater. And I fully expect Oklahoma State to take home the win. But I’m checking in on the off chance Tulsa, with nothing to lose, ends up as the end of the Gundy era. Because if Gundy’s Oklahoma State falls to this Tulsa team at home, he’ll be joining Brent Pry and Deshaun Foster on the couch.
Multi-Box Games: Iowa at Rutgers (8 p.m., FOX)
This is the better game. If you want to watch good football, tune in here. It’ll be a classic, Big Ten smashmouth battle. Can Mark Gronowski shake the fact that he’s an Iowa quarterback and look competent under center? Or will Rutgers roll to 4-0?
Saturday - 12 p.m. EST
Game of the Slot: 17 Texas Tech at 11 Utah (FOX)
It’s time for the tests to start. We’ve seen enough from the cupcake, body bag games. Let’s line up and learn some stuff.
Texas Tech’s portal class was the talk of the offseason. The offense always had a second gear when Behren Morton was healthy, and he’s been lights out thus far. The defense looks to be much improved behind portal heists like David Bailey and Romello Height, leaving the Red Raiders as the 19th best team in the nation with a +0.37 Net EPA/play mark. But they haven’t faced any real competition. Utah will be a true test of Texas Tech’s work in the trenches. We’ll see now if Cody Campbell’s millions of dollars actually bought a contender.
For Utah, it’s all eyes on the offense. Devon Dampier is annihilating lesser competition. The Utes rank third in net EPA/play at +0.57, but again, haven’t faced anyone on their level. Kyle Whittingham’s teams almost always win based on physicality on the trenches on both sides of the ball, which plays well into Texas Tech’s more questionable units. I’m really excited to see how the Utah offense looks against this Texas Tech defense, though. Both units have some continuity and high-level talent, but neither is tested. It’ll be a fun battle with fireworks aplenty.
Plus, this could be a Big 12 Championship-impacting game. Well, any Big 12 game could be, but this one moreso than others.
Multi-Box Games: Arkansas at Memphis (ABC); SMU at 24 TCU (ESPN2); Maryland at Wisconsin (NBC/Peacock)
We start in the Group of Six ranks as Arkansas travels to Memphis. Both teams are riding their dual-threat quarterbacks which oftentimes leads to a lot of fireworks. Plus, this is a major resume game for the Tigers. Speaking of shootouts, SMU at TCU is going to be fun. Once again, it’s the first test for either team, but both have playoff and conference title potential if they keep it up. Finally, we’ll take a break from the shootouts for what’ll likely be a low-scoring Anxiety Bowl between Maryland and Wisconsin. Can September Maryland keep rolling? Will Luke Fickell finally make progress in Madison? Will the teams break 30 points? Who knows!
3-4 p.m. EST
Game of the Slot: 12 Auburn at 13 Oklahoma (3:30 p.m., ABC)
We’ve spent a lot of time today talking about tests. Both Auburn and Oklahoma have passed their early tests. Now, it’s time to see who’s legit.
For Auburn, it’s all offense. Jackson Arnold’s return to Norman is looking to be wonderfully toxic after he busted out with the Sooners. But he’s flying high with War Eagle and has Auburn’s offense looking like one of the nation’s best. The problem, though, is a defense that ranks 117th in Net EPA/play. With John Mateer piloting a potent-looking Oklahoma offense, can Auburn’s defense play up to the level they need? They’re stout against the run (first in EPA/play allowed against the run), but the pass defense is suspect. Keep an eye on the Auburn secondary against the Oklahoma passing game.
On the flip side, Oklahoma also has an exciting quarterback in John Mateer that’s taking over the nation. In fact, I’d put him first in the Heisman race right now. But what I’m watching is the Sooner defense. Brent Venables has always been renowned for his defenses, but the unit has been either really good or really bad since he arrived in Norman. This year, they look good, ranking first in Net EPA/play on the defensive side of the ball with a great -0.36 mark. Against the pass, the Sooners are even better at -0.58. That opens up an interesting schematic matchup, though. Auburn wants to run the ball behind Jackson Arnold and Jeremiah Cobb in the RPO game. Can the Oklahoma rush defense shut down Auburn’s dynamic attack?
Multi-Box Games: 19 Tulane at 16 Ole Miss (ESPN); 25 Michigan at Nebraska (3:30 p.m., CBS/Paramount+); James Madison at Liberty (3:30 p.m., ESPNU)
We’ll head to perhaps my favorite matchup of the week in Tulane-Ole Miss. The Green Wave have manhandled two Power Four foes already, but Ole Miss is the best team they’ve faced. Ole Miss has a quarterback dilemma as Austin Simmons is expected to start this weekend, but Trinidad Chambliss looked better than Simmons had all year last week. I believe in Tulane and Jake Retzlaff, but this is going down to the wire. Nebraska has a chance to surprise in the Big Ten, and that starts if they top the Wolverines. This should have a good battle between two young quarterbacks, whoever feels more comfortable and confident will come out on top. We close this timeslot in the Group of Six ranks where a budding rivalry is getting off the ground. James Madison has playoff aspirations, but Bob Chesney has to settle this silly two-quarterback system of Alonza Barnett III and Matthew Sluka. For Liberty, the Flames are desperately searching for any form of offensive stability. Still, rivalry games, especially at the Group of Six level, have plenty of chaos potential.
Wondering where these rankings are coming from? Check out this week’s SID Sports Top 25!
6-8 p.m. EST
Game of the Slot: 14 Illinois at 23 Indiana (7:30 p.m., NBC/Peacock)
When was the last time this game mattered? 1950 is the last time the two programs were both in the AP Top 20 when they played. I don’t quite have them both that high, but it’s still a monumental Big Ten showdown between two traditional has-beens.
Illinois was a dark horse playoff contender heading into the season and has done nothing but reinforce that idea. Luke Altmyer is taking care of the football. The Illini rank 14th in Net EPA/play. Bret Bielema’s defense is firing on all cylinders, with Gabe Jacas asserting himself as one of the nation’s top edge rushers - he’s got 3.5 sacks and 2 forced fumbles in three games - and the secondary lead by the Fighting Scotts (Miles and Xavier) posting a top-25 success rate against the pass. With a ton of returning production, the Illini have the makings of a contender. They, like most everyone else, just haven’t been tested yet.
Indiana falls into that same group. Curt Cignetti’s team has looked much like last year’s playoff-worthy unit, tearing through lesser competition. The Hoosier offense is among the nation’s best, ranking ninth in offensive EPA/play and sixth in Net EPA/play. Even better, Indiana is first in the nation in success rate with a 30.0 percent mark. Fernando Mendoza has been impressively efficient, ranking 11th in EPA/dropback and 20th in ESPN QBR. The secondary, like last year, is elite.
You may have overlooked these teams in the past. You may even overlook this game because of who’s playing. Don’t. These are two legitimate title contenders going head-to-head in a rivalry matchup. It’s what college football is made of.
Multi-Box Games: Arizona State at Baylor (7:30 p.m., FOX); Florida at 3 Miami (7:30 p.m., ABC); South Carolina at Missouri (7 p.m., ESPN)
Speaking of contenders going head-to-head, Arizona State and Baylor both had contender billing and suffered rough early-season losses. It’s the beginning of the Big 12 schedule, though, so a lot can change from now until December. But the offenses going after each other here will be electric. I don’t think Florida has much of a chance in Miami Gardens against a surging Miami, but Billy Napier has saved his tenure at Florida with wins like this. If DJ Lagway can shake off last week’s five picks, this could get real interesting real quick. Our final game of the slot will hinge on if LaNorris Sellers - currently listed as questionable - is able to suit up. It feels like South Carolina is already fighting for their lives, and Missouri is trying to show the SEC that nothing has changed in Columbia and the Tigers are here to compete.
West Coast After Dark
Game of the Slot: Michigan State at 18 USC (11 p.m., FOX)
Is it the most interesting game on names alone? No, I’ll give you that. But there’s a lot to like under the hood.
For the visiting Spartans of Michigan State, there’s finally progress showing in the rebuild under Jonathan Smith. They still aren’t spectacular - just about breaking even in Net EPA/play at +0.1 - but Aidan Chiles has looked more comfortable than ever. They’ve thrived on pressure downs like third and fourth, posting a 51.2 percent success rate on those two downs, ranking 39th in the nation. That’s a big key to pulling an upset like this - controlling the pivotal downs of the game. Michigan State’s defense leaves a lot to be desired still, ranking 123rd in EPA/play allowed. That could be their downfall here.
I’ve been very skeptical of USC this season, which you know well if you’ve been following the newsletter. Maybe it’s time to change my tune? The Trojans are the nation’s best team by Net EPA/play with an absurd +0.66 mark. They have the nation’s best offense by EPA/play at +0.51. Even the defense is playing well for D’Anton Lynn. Jayden Maiava is the best quarterback in the nation by ESPN QBR and EPA/dropback. I’m starting to think it’s time to consider that the Trojans are for real and not primed for a crushing loss that leads to a losing streak that I assumed was coming. Still, this could be a sneaky challenge for the Trojans. Let’s see how they handle it.
Multi-Box Game: California at San Diego State (10:30 p.m., CBS Sports Network); Wyoming at Colorado (10:15 p.m., ESPN); UTSA at Colorado State (9:30 p.m., FS1)
The legend of Jaron Keawe-Sagapolutele continues to grow as the lefty true freshman slings Cal past yet another unworthy foe. This time, San Diego State’s porous defense stands in his way. I think he’s going to look great and continue to shine in the late window. It’s a whole different story in Colorado, where Deion Sanders is now playing quarterback Jenga a week after saying he didn’t want to keep cycling signal callers. Can Kaidon Salter keep the whole tower from falling down? Wyoming has a very tough defense so this is more of a test and has more upset potential than you’d think. Our final game of the weekend gives us an interesting Group of Six matchup. Neither team has lived up to their billings as of late, but both have experienced quarterbacks in UTSA’s Owen McCown and Colorado State’s Brayden Fowler-Niccolosi. The game will be decided by the UTSA offense against the Colorado State defense, as the inverse would lead to a putrid showing.
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