2025 Games of the Slot: Week 13
Breaking down which game to watch at each time slot this weekend
Welcome to the wild, wacky and frankly weird week that is the one before Rivalry Week. Yes, this is a week that’s largely filled with overpowered SEC teams beating down FCS foes and playoff hopefuls sleepwalking through some lesser opponents. But it’s also got some great action if you look past the helmets that ESPN and other legacy media keeps yelling about.
So, hang with me on this Games of the Slot. It’s going to be a departure from what you’re expecting. Oh, and I hope you have access to ESPN+ because you’re going to need it.
Friday Night
Game of the Slot: Hawaii at UNLV (10:30 p.m., FS1)
In a tight Mountain West race that we haven’t really talked about in-depth, this game means a lot.
The visiting Rainbow Warriors have had quite the under-the-radar turnaround since their Week Zero upset of Stanford. Led by undersized freshman Micah Alejado, the classic Hawaii run-n-shoot is back. They rank 52nd in EPA/passing play and only 129th in EPA/rushing play, so you know what the Rainbow Warrior offense wants to do. Timmy Chang is a former Hawaii standout quarterback himself, and Alejado has authored a pretty solid freshman season with 2,380 yards, 18 touchdowns, seven picks and a 65.8 completion percentage. The Hawaii defense isn’t much of anything to write home about aside from ranking 37th in defensive success rate against the pass.
UNLV is the best team in the Mountain West if you look at the recruiting rankings of the players Dan Mullen’s assembled in Sin City. His transfer-heavy reclamation roster is playing great and looking like the class of the conference. Anthony Colandrea has found a way to stay healthy and has even better numbers than Alejado. The Rebel offense ranks 16th in success rate. Too bad the defense isn’t holding up their end of the bargain, ranking 64th in Net EPA/play and 91st in success rate. Though, that success rate is getting pulled down by a very poor rushing defense. Their passing defense ranks 59th in success rate, making this a much better matchup.
Multi-Box Games: Florida State at NC State (8 p.m., ESPN)
Neither team is good. Both quarterbacks can make outstanding and head-scratching plays. Expect the unexpected in what should be a roller-coaster ride.
Saturday - 12 p.m. EST
Game of the Slot: Montana State at Montana (2 p.m., ESPN+)
Is this the first Game of the Slot reserved for the FCS ranks? I checked and it is.
For the non-FCS watchers out there, the Brawl of the Wild (best rivalry name in sports, fight me) is one of the most heated in the FCS ranks. These two teams capital-H Hate each other. And they rank second and third in the FCS Coaches’ Poll.
The visiting Bobcats of Montana State enter at 9-2 and 7-0 in Big Sky play. They’ve rattled off nine consecutive wins following a 59-13 beatdown at the hands of Oregon in Autzen and a narrow loss to a then-very good South Dakota State. Quarterback Justin Lamson has been a do-it-all maestro, completing 71 percent of his passes for 2,170 yards, 19 touchdowns and only two picks. The team as a whole has taken a beating to everyone they’ve seen during their winning streak, carrying the FCS’s 10th best scoring offense (38.8 points per game) and eighth best scoring defense (16.68 points per game). The Bobcats will employ a lethal balanced attack led by Lamson and tailback Julius Davis, who’s averaging 7.9 yards per carry this season. And that’s only looking at the offense. The defense is lights out too.
But they’re entering hostile territory. And Montana is one of the FCS’s best. The Grizzlies are 11-0, second in the nation and the only FCS program to pick up a first place vote besides the head-and-shoulders above leader, North Dakota State. Where balance is the name of the game in Bozeman, it’s all about the passing game in Missoula. Grizzly quarterback Keali’i Ah Yat ranks third in the FCS in passing yards with 2,968 with 24 touchdowns, only seven picks, and a 67.5 percent completion rate. He’s going to go after the Montana State defense. Unlike their rivals, there is a potential hole here. The Montana defense gives up points. A lot of them. Well, in comparison at least - 22.82 points per game, ranking 22nd. If there’s any unit that’s paling in comparison, it’s that.
Multi-Box Games: Missouri at 8 Oklahoma (ABC); Harvard at Yale (ESPNU); Louisville at SMU (ESPN2)
We’ll return to the FBS ranks for a test of the Oklahoma offense. Missouri might be cooked on offense, down to a third string quarterback, but the defense is still going to give John Mateer and the Sooners fits. We’ll see how Oklahoma handles them. Again in the FCS ranks, Harvard at Yale is an all-timer of a rivalry and FCS playoff position is on the line. Harvard, currently ranked eighth in the FCS polls, has a shot to be the first Ivy League national champion ever. That is, unless rival Yale has anything to say about it. It’s a close matchup, so expect a great game. In the ACC, it’s always chaos. Louisville has beaten themselves in recent weeks, but is still a quality program, while SMU is clinging to very slim playoff hopes. I expect a shootout.
3-4 p.m. EST
Game of the Slot: 13 USC at 7 Oregon (3:30 p.m., CBS)
It’s the week’s only ranked FBS matchup, and it’s one with serious playoff considerations. As we discussed in yesterday’s Bracketology article, the playoff resumes of both teams depend on a win here.
For USC, the Trojans are currently outside the field. They need a resume-boosting win to get in and this is their last opportunity. USC is looking the part of a Lincoln Riley-coached team with a super potent offense. They rank second in success rate, third in Net EPA/play, eighth in yards per play, and quarterback Jayden Maiava is at the top of the ESPN QBR leaderboards and the leader in EPA/dropback. Got all that? Good. If not, the gist is the offense is probably the best in the nation. But, like every Lincoln Riley team dating back to his Oklahoma days, you have to worry about the defense. That’s what has the possibility to undo everything the offense is doing. Don’t get me wrong, USC’s defense has improved greatly since football terrorist Alex Grinch was cast away, but they still rank 38th in Net EPA/play, 50th in Net EPA/drive, and 79th in success rate. That’s not a playoff-worthy unit.
Oregon has been a bit of a conundrum for me this year, finding a way to always play to their opponent’s level. Granted, monsoon-like weather in narrow wins over Wisconsin and Iowa may play a part in that. Even factoring that in, Oregon looks like the better team by advanced metrics. They edge out USC in yards per play, Net EPA/play, and have a huge advantage in success rate. I’m excited to see how this Oregon defense goes against the USC offense, with the Ducks ranking second in defensive Net EPA/play, sixth in defensive success against the pass and 18th in overall defensive success. That’s going to be the story of the game. If Dillon Thieneman, Matayo Uiagalelei, Bear Alexander and company can slow down the USC offense, the Oregon offense can put up enough points to win the game. In other words, a classic Dan Lanning formula is the key.
Multi-Box Games: TCU at 24 Houston (4 p.m., FOX); Sacramento State at UC Davis (4 p.m., ESPN+); East Carolina at UTSA (3:30 p.m., ESPN+)
The Big 12 has some big games, but a potential shootout between TCU and Houston has the most fun chaos potential. Both teams are having much better seasons, elite-level quarterbacks, and surprisingly are decent on defense. The matchup is very even. Our final FCS affair is the possibly final edition of the Causeway Classic with Sac State looking to jump to the FBS ranks. Don’t put the horse in front of the carriage. Both programs enter with seven wins. Sac State has a punishing rushing attack in the Go-Go offense we saw at UNLV last season, while UC Davis has a major difference-maker in freshman dual-threat Caden Pinnick. It’ll be a good game. And, speaking of good games, the American has an under the radar banger in ECU at UTSA. East Carolina is technically alive in the playoff race behind a strong offense, while UTSA is one of the most hot and cold teams in the nation. If UTSA and quarterback Owen McCown are on, expect the Alamodome to be lit up in fireworks.
Wondering where these rankings are coming from? Check out this week’s SID Sports Top 25!
6-8 p.m. EST
Game of the Slot: Pittsburgh at 12 Georgia Tech (7 p.m., ESPN)
We got the major FCS playoff implications game. Now, we get the FBS version.
Pittsburgh was red hot since inserting true freshman Mason Heintschel under center, but that came to a screeching, terrifying halt against Notre Dame last week. Still, Georgia Tech’s porous defense should allow Heintschel, do-it-all tailback Desmond Reid and the Panther offense to cook. But it’s going to be a battle of has-beens, as the Pittsburgh offense ranks 119th in success rate, while Georgia Tech’s defense is 112th. Are we sure this is a top-flight game?
You bet we are. Simply because of Haynes King taking games over for the Yellow Jackets. Well, that and the matchup between the Georgia Tech offense and the Pittsburgh defense. King and Georgia Tech have the eighth best offense per success rate in the nation and fourth best by Net EPA/play. Pittsburgh’s defense ranks ninth in success rate and 56th in Net EPA/play. More importantly, Pittsburgh ranks third in defensive success rate against the run. Georgia Tech offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner is one of the nation’s most creative playcallers. But, he relies on a multi-faceted rushing attack behind King. Pittsburgh is well set up to challenge that and make Faulkner think even more outside the box.
Multi-Box Games: 11 BYU at Cincinnati (8 p.m., FOX); 23 Tennessee at Florida (7:30 p.m., ABC); New Mexico at Air Force (7 p.m., CBS Sports Network)
BYU-Cincinnati is almost as impactful on the playoff picture. A BYU win essentially locks down a BYU-Texas Tech rematch in the league championship. A Cincinnati win opens up those sweet, sweet tiebreakers. Plus, the Cincinnati offense working against BYU’s defense is going to be must-see TV. Tennessee-Florida may have some fireworks, but has a ton of chaos potential. I expect the Volunteers to win, but who knows what can happen with D.J. Lagway on the field? New Mexico-Air Force isn’t that close in terms of records, but the two teams are pretty solid compliments. Meaning, neither defense could stop a cold and neither offense will take their foot off the gas.
West Coast After Dark
Game of the Slot: San Jose State at San Diego State (10:30 p.m., FS1)
It’s the last in-conference clash between these two rivals, but it still should be fun.
San Jose State doesn’t have the star power of last year, but the Spartans are still have a potent offense. The spread-n-shred is working, with SJSU ranking 56th in offense Net EPA/play and 45th in offensive success rate. They’re much more balanced than a year ago, but Ken Niumatalolo has got another one. Danny Scudero has 1,155 yards, leading the country like Nick Nash did a year ago. The defense is among the nation’s worst, though, so it’ll take an all-time performance by Scudero and Walker Eget to put the Spartans on top.
That’s because, contrary to most people’s opinions on San Diego State head coach Sean Lewis, the Aztecs are really good on defense. Edge rusher Trey White and his six sacks are the star of the show, but he’s just one piece of a very good puzzle. San Diego State ranks a whopping fourth in the nation in defensive Net EPA/play and fourth in success rate. And, even more shocking for a Lewis-led program, the Aztecs are just 97th in offensive success rate and 118th in net EPA/play. That means this game is going to be a head-to-head battle between the SJSU spread and shred and the SDSU stonewall defense.
Multi-Box Games: Washington at UCLA (10:30 p.m., NBC); Utah State at Fresno State (10:30 p.m., CBS Sports Network)
Washington should roll through UCLA with ease, but you have two fun quarterbacks to watch in Demond Williams and Nico Iamaleava. Utah State-Fresno State is almost dead even by ESPN Analytics, so it may be the closest game of the slot. But neither team has much of a standout. Utah State wideout Braden Pegan is pretty good, but if you want a close game, this is your best bet.
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