2025 Games of the Slot: Week 11
Breaking down which game to watch at each time slot this weekend
Last week was a bit light on games, but it more than made up for it in chaos, like we saw in the ACC and SEC races.
Good news - this week’s slate is looking much stronger. We’ve got some seriously strong battles on deck with major playoff implications. With the playoff race wide open in this parity-driven season, that’s going to be the case the rest of the way.
So, as the weather draws colder, it’s time for some real, red-blooded, American football. The kind that creates memories and moments that last forever. Heroes will be born, legends will be forged, villains created.
Let’s have a weekend.
As always, all times are in Eastern.
Friday Night
Game of the Slot: Tulane at 22 Memphis (9 p.m., ESPN)
This is an absolutely massive game for playoff implications. I’ve said it for weeks that the American champion likely gets into the tournament. Here’s the biggest battle yet in that conference.
Tulane may have the most top-level talent in the conference, but Jon Sumrall’s team just hasn’t put it all together into one big bow yet. And that’s not counting last week’s disaster loss to UTSA, where the Green Wave defense couldn’t buy an incompletion, let alone a stop, Jake Retzlaff was pulled for Brendan Sullivan and the Green Wave offense spluttered. It was a forgettable week to say the least. Sumrall is going to have to build short memories for his team, because they have their backs against the wall. Tulane has been ineffective running the ball aside from Retzlaff this year, and the offense relies on his passing ability, no matter how shaky it’s been. Think last year’s BYU without the elite defense. The good news is Memphis has a porous pass defense for the Green Wave to take advantage of.
The good news for Memphis fans is that the Tigers also match up well with Tulane. Memphis has the fifth best rushing offense by EPA/rush, while Tulane’s rush defense ranks 89th. Memphis also has a huge success rate edge, ranking 20th while Tulane clocks in at 59th. On paper, Memphis should run away with this game, but the American hasn’t had much regard for what paper looks like this season. Ryan Silverfield has done a great job getting his team ready for big games so far, but their lone loss came in the Battle for the Bones against rival UAB right after Trent Dilfer was cast out. It’s time for redemption.
Multi-Box Games: Northwestern at 13 USC (9 p.m., FOX); Houston at UCF (8 p.m., FS1)
Northwestern-USC has some playoff implications, but the Trojans are patently better on paper. They should win. The same goes for Houston, who is facing one of the worst teams in the Power Four in UCF. We’ll see if Scott Frost has any magic for his Knights, but I’m expecting both of these games to tread into blowout territory.
Saturday - 12 p.m. EST
Game of the Slot: 8 BYU at 9 Texas Tech (ABC)
Here’s your big-ticket game of the week with heaps of playoff and Big 12 race intrigue.
BYU is the clear leader in the conference right now, sitting at a sterling 8-0 behind some of the best complimentary football in the nation. All three facets of BYU - offense, defense, and special teams - rank in the top 25 by SP+. Success rate paints a different picture, though, with the Cougar defense ranking shockingly low at 57th due to a poor rushing defense (tied for 85th in rushing success rate allowed). That’s not something I’m worried about here, though, as it’s clear Texas Tech wants to regain aerial superiority like in the good old days and isn’t interested in the run. Still, BYU has two bangers in linebackers Isaiah Glasker and Siale Esera that can play tough in the run. On the offensive side, star tailback L.J. Martin appears ready to go, which takes a ton of pressure off of true freshman Bear Bachmeier, who’s been outstanding this year. Against the Red Raider defensive front, though, balance is going to be key. I hope Martin’s ready to shoulder a big load, because BYU needs him to be at his best.
Texas Tech also has some great injury news, with quarterback Behren Morton looking fully healthy again. I’ve said it before, but the Red Raider offense just hums at a different level when Morton is running things. But the defense is the true stars here. Texas Tech’s remade defense under coordinator Shiel Wood ranks sixth in defensive EPA/play and will force Bachmeier and the Cougars to play near-perfect ball. The defensive line is probably the nation’s best, with ends David Bailey and Romello Height already nabbing a combined 17.5 sacks. And that’s not counting the elite level that linebackers Jacob Rodriguez and Ben Roberts are playing at. Texas Tech is going to focus on shutting down Martin - made easier if he’s not at 100 percent - and force Bachmeier to win through the air. He’s done it in the past, but never against a defense like this.
Multi-Box Games: Southern Miss at Arkansas State (ESPNU); 5 Georgia at Mississippi State (ESPN); Colorado at West Virginia (TNT/HBO Max)
The Sun Belt has a great game in Southern Miss at Arkansas State that will likely determine who meets James Madison in the title game. On paper, the Golden Eagles have a massive edge, but Arkansas State has two linemen in Demarcus Hendricks and Ethan Haller that can take over the game. Georgia should roll through Mississippi State without a thought, but Jeff Lebby’s Bulldogs have played everyone in-conference tight. Georgia may need to find some explosive plays to sneak through this with a win, which has been a tall task for the Dawg offense. Colorado-West Virginia is going to be a nightmare to watch. It’s mostly here for a Sicko alternative to these games, as well as being highly-touted five-star Julian “JuJu” Lewis’s first start for the Coach Prime-led Buffaloes.
3-4 p.m. EST
Game of the Slot: 7 Oregon at Iowa (3:30 p.m., CBS)
No, it’s not a ranked game by my rankings, but it’s still going to be electric.
Oregon has coasted most of the season, playing lesser foes and then getting stopped in a classic game against Indiana at home. That ends now, as the Ducks enter the toughest part of their schedule. A trip to Kinnick for a top-10 team is never easy, or even advised, but here we are. This game is going to be a referendum on Dante Moore. Indiana put pressure on him, made him work like he hadn’t before. Now, he’s facing what may be an even better defense in the Hawkeyes because Phil Parker has cooked up another stout, elite unit. The main difference from Iowa teams in years past? There isn’t one big star you can scheme around. This entire defense can hurt the Ducks at any point. Gameplanning is going to be paramount to win this, and if Will Stein can get the Ducks rolling early, they can escape the depths of Kinnick with a win.
Of course, all of this has been said without mentioning the Iowa offense. Which, surprisingly, has been decent this year. Remember how I’ve said that Iowa was a quarterback with a pulse away from being competitive? They have one. Mark Gronowski isn’t the transcendant player that some (okay, me) hyped him up to be this preseason, but he’s playing effectively and efficiently in this offense. He ranks first in EPA/rush among quarterbacks, and is a lethal goal line treat. Kamari Moulton isn’t the stud tailback you’d expect in years past, but he’s a tough runner between the tackles that will grind out yards against this Oregon front. The Hawkeyes will have to find an answer for Matayo Uiagalelei and Bear Alexander that doesn’t involve passing the ball, though. That’s going to be the key to watch. But Iowa has scored over 30 points in three of their last five games and played Indiana as close as Oregon did.
Multi-Box Games: 3 Texas A&M at 20 Missouri (3:30 p.m., ABC); Iowa State at TCU (3:30 p.m., FOX); South Dakota State at South Dakota (4 p.m., ESPNU)
It’s elimination game time for Missouri, down to their third quarterback in true freshman Matt Zollers. He played well last week, but Mike Elko’s running a tight ship in Bryan-College Station that can roll over Missouri if they want. Iowa State is all but out of the Big 12 race, but TCU has the chance to assert themselves as staying contenders. I expect the Horned Frog offense to feast on a very banged up Iowa State secondary, but the Cyclone offense might be able to keep up if the big play potential of wideout Chase Sowell is realized. We end the slot in the FCS ranks, where South Dakota State is on an uncharacteristic two-game slide and stares down another rival in South Dakota. Both teams’ FCS playoff hopes are on life-support, so we get a rivalry elimination game.
Wondering where these rankings are coming from? Check out this week’s SID Sports Top 25!
6-8 p.m. EST
Game of the Slot: Wake Forest at 14 Virginia (7 p.m., ESPN)
Yeah, this doesn’t seem like a Game of the Slot to me. But hang with me, I promise.
Wake Forest hasn’t been featured here since Sam Hartman was leading the program. And they’re not even that great, sitting at 5-3 overall and 2-3 in the ACC. But the Demon Deacons have bright spots in Jake Dickert’s first season. Tailback Demond Claiborne has been as advertised, but he’s the extent of the offense. It’s the Demon Deacon defense that’s playing well. The unit, coordinated by Scottie Hazelton, ranks 12th in EPA/pass, 32nd in EPA/rush, 8th in overall success rate, 2nd in rushing success rate, and 10th in net EPA/drive. It’s been a whole team effort, without any major standouts. If Claiborne and quarterback Robbie Ashford, now a well-versed journeyman, can get up to the task, Dickert may get a signature road win to cement his program as something to watch out for in future years.
Virginia’s hopes hinge on their offense, which Chandler Morris is playing out of his mind in. But, like we’ve said, Wake Forest has a solid defense that can flip this game on its head. Morris, a journeyman like Ashford, is having his best season of his career in Charlottesville, though, and has the acumen to pull through in this tough matchup. The Hoos’ defense should smother Wake Forest’s offense, at least on paper, so the onus will be on the Cavalier offense against the Demon Deacon defense. But this is a Virginia team that’s more than earned the Cardiac Cavalier moniker. They’ve had three overtime affairs in their last five games. One other was decided by one score. They can’t keep getting away with this, and this game has the makings of an upset all over it. I’m truly pulling for Tony Elliot’s squad to crash the playoff, but they cannot overlook this game.
Multi-Box Games: California at 16 Louisville (7 p.m., ESPN2); LSU at 4 Alabama (7:30 p.m., ABC); Navy at 10 Notre Dame (7:30 p.m., NBC/Peacock)
Elsewhere in the ACC, California’s red hot start has been dumped into the Pacific Ocean and cooled off, as the Golden Bears are losers of two straight and three of their last five. But Louisville has to overcome an injury to top tailback Isaac Brown and has a propensity to play to their competition each week, no matter what level that is. Alabama gets to avoid the hostile environment of Tiger Stadium, but this has been a game that the Tide have struggled with under Kalen DeBoer. Can the fired coach bump and a rivalry setting get us an upset here? Navy-Notre Dame in the modern era has been a long list of beatdowns with the Irish on top, but this year may be different. The Chris Ash Notre Dame defense has struggled to tackle. Not a good recipe to stop a triple option offense, especially one as masterfully piloted as Blake Horvath has been doing this year. I don’t think it’ll be close, but I can see a path for Navy to pull an upset, no matter how unlikely it is.
West Coast After Dark
Game of the Slot: San Diego State at Hawaii (11 p.m., Spectrum SportsNet)
This looks like a great strength-on-strength matchup in the Mountain West, even if it may not have playoff implications. It certainly means a lot in the conference race.
San Diego State is about as opposite as you’d expect from a Sean Lewis coached team. Their offense isn’t great, but they do move quick. The defense? Outstanding. The Aztec defense ranks third in the nation in net EPA/play, third in success rate, and second in net EPA/drive. They’ve suffocated every opponent they’ve come across. Linebacker Owen Chambliss will stuff the stat sheet both in the rushing and passing games. The secondary is opportunistic, forcing 10 picks in just eight games. Lewis will need quarterback Jayden Denegal, who amounts to almost the entire Aztec offense, to play well to stay unbeaten in Mountain West play, but the defense is good enough to take them there.
For Hawaii, their wide open run and shoot might be the secret in topping the vaunted Aztec defense. Quarterback Micah Alejado is super efficient under center and doesn’t make many mistakes. But he also doesn’t have any semblance of a rushing game behind him. It’ll be an interesting battle between the Rainbow Warrior receivers Nick Cenacle and Poffele Ashlock against San Diego State’s cornerbacks. That game within the game might just determine who wins here.
Multi-Box Game: Nebraska at UCLA (9 p.m., FOX); UNLV at Colorado State (9:30 p.m., FS1); Sam Houston at Oregon State (10 p.m., The CW)
Nebraska is without Dylan Raiola and UCLA has been iffy in recent weeks. That sounds like a combination that leads to a wild after-dark game. Colorado State has already fired their coach and looks quite bad. UNLV is fighting to stay in the Mountain West race. I expect the Rebels to run through the Rams with ease. Our night ends with a CW game that may be a Sickos affair of the year. Sam Houston, for some reason, hired Phil Longo and it’s going as bad as you’d expect. Oregon State has one win and already fired their head coach. This game is going to be an atrocity on the eyes, which is exactly why I think you should tune in.
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