The end of the line: A coronation or a return to form?
Previewing tonight's National Championship game
Everything, every single second, every single snap, every single preseason rep and every single personnel change led to this point. The College Football National Championship.
I’ve said throughout the season that this was the most parity-driven season in recent memory. Certainly since SID Sports started covering the sport. And here we land with two improbable heavyweights ready to battle it out in a game full of interest, intrigue and, hopefully, great football.
On one side is the home team. Well, actually, the visiting team, but you get the point. The Miami Hurricanes have overcome the Mario Cristobal stigma of underachieving and blowing promising seasons to return to their first National Championship since 2001, and one in their home stadium at that. Miami also represents the first team seeded in the double-digits and first two-loss team to make the CFP National Championship.
On the other side is college football’s newest, most unlikely juggernaut, the unbeaten Indiana Hoosiers. Indiana represents the possibility to be the nation’s first modern-era 16-0 National Champion and a win would put a permanent stamp on this being the biggest, best, fastest turnaround in college football history.
So yeah, there’s a lot at stake here besides one shiny trophy and a banner that will live forever.
In case you haven’t seen one of my single-game previews before, I do it a little differently than most folks. Instead of writing up a big preview of how I think the game’s going to go, I take a nod to my old SID roots and provide you a bunch of notes for each team. Then, you get all the information about both teams to be the most informed as possible for tonight’s contest.
The Tale of the Tape
Matchup: 1 Indiana Hoosiers (15-0) v. 10 Miami Hurricanes (13-2)
When?: Monday, January 19 | 7:30 p.m. ET
Where?: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida
TV: ESPN and ESPN App | Broadcast Team: Chris Fowler, Kirk Herbstreit, Holly Rowe and Molly McGrath
Radio: ESPN Radio and Sirius XM | Broadcast Team: Sean McDonough, Greg McElroy, Ian Fitzsimmons, Quint Kessenich
Series History: Even, 1-1. Last meeting: 28-14 Indiana win, October 24, 1964
Indiana Offense v. Miami Defense
Scoring: Indiana 42.6 (2nd) v. Miami 14.0 (5th)
Total Yardage: Indiana 461.0 (11th) v. Miami 292.6 (11th)
Net EPA/play: Indiana +0.15 (4th) v. Miami -0.07 (14th)
Success Rate: Indiana 52.8% (3rd) v. Miami 39.4% (29th)
Passing Yardage: Indiana 242.5 (52nd) v. Miami 206.1 (45th)
EPA/pass: Indiana +0.27 (4th) v. Miami -0.15 (15th)
Passing Success Rate: Indiana 52.8% (3rd) v. Miami 39.4% (30th)
Rushing Yardage: Indiana 218.3 (12th) v. Miami 86.5 (6th)
EPA/rush: Indiana +0.07 (32nd) v. Miami +0.04 (79th)
Rushing Success Rate: Indiana 46.4% (13th) v. Miami 39.5% (37th)
Sacks Allowed v. Sacks: Indiana 22 (34th) v. Miami 47.0 (1st)
Miami Offense v. Indiana Defense
Scoring: Miami 31.6 (30th) v. Indiana 11.07 (2nd)
Total Yardage: Miami 409.2 (40th) v. Indiana 260.9 (4th)
Net EPA/play: Miami +0.14 (14th) v. Indiana -0.07 (29th)
Success Rate: Miami 43.8% (37th) v. Indiana 38.7% (18th)
Passing Yardage: Miami 254.6 (36th) v. Indiana 185.9 (23rd)
EPA/pass: Miami +0.17 (10th) v. Indiana -0.08 (29th)
Passing Success Rate: Miami 49.0% (10th) v. Indiana 39.2% (29th)
Rushing Yardage: Miami 154.6 (72nd) v. Indiana 75.0 (2nd)
EPA/rush: Miami -0.04 (98th) v. Indiana -0.06 (23rd)
Rushing Success Rate: Miami 39.1% (100th) v. Indiana 37.9% (25th)
Sacks Allowed v. Sacks: Miami 19 (16th) v. Indiana 45 (2nd)
Want to talk about tonight’s game? SID Sports is hosting a chat for all subscribers! If you have the Substack app, just select the button below around kickoff and talk with me and other readers about what we’re seeing.
1 Indiana Notes
A win would make Indiana just the second 16-0 team in college football history, joining the 1894 Yale Bulldogs as the only teams to accomplish that feat. This also represents Indiana’s first ever National Championship appearance. A win would give college football its first first-time champion since Florida in 1996
So far on the Hoosiers’ dominant playoff run, Indiana has scored 94 total points (47 per game), racked up 770 yards of total offense (385 per game) and has an astronomical combined +69 scoring margin. That’s against Alabama and Oregon, by the way.
Heisman winning quarterback Fernando Mendoza will return home for the biggest game in his career. Mendoza attended high school at Christopher Columbus High School, just 30 minutes south of Hard Rock Stadium. He has never played in the building before.
Mendoza has somehow topped his Heisman winning regular season, putting up video game numbers that are rivaling Joe Burrow’s magical 2019 season. In just the College Football Playoff, Mendoza has more touchdowns (eight) than incompletions (five) and has yet to throw an interception. Looking at his entire season, Mendoza has five games with more touchdowns than incompletions. No other quarterback has accomplished that feat more than twice since 2000.
Indiana will deploy a stable of strong running backs to hopefully tire out the Miami front. Roman Hemby will be the leader, as the senior has become the 20th Indiana tailback to top 1,000 yards rushing. But you can’t discount Kaelon Black, fresh off a two-touchdown Peach Bowl and with a touchdown in five of his last seven contests.
Mendoza has one of the best receiver duos to target in Biletnikoff finalists Elijah Sarratt and Omar Cooper Jr. The duo rank first (Sarratt - 15) and second (Cooper - 12) in touchdown receptions in the Big Ten and both rank within the top five most career receiving scores in Indiana history. They’re rangy guys with serious big play potential that can break the game open at any second.
The biggest revelation in the playoff has been Charlie Becker’s ascension into stardom. Becker was already putting together a stellar season, ranking ninth in the nation with 1.02 EPA/target, but he’s taken it to a new level as of late. He’s scored in each of Indiana’s playoff after topping the century mark in Indiana’s final regular season affair and in the Big Ten Championship.
The tight end passing game won’t be too big for Indiana, with Riley Nowakowski mostly serving as a safety valve while the Hoosier wideouts work. He did earn second-team All-Big Ten honors, though, as a strong blocker.
You don’t see a bunch of linemen earning an award, but that’s how it went when Pat Coogan hoisted the Rose Bowl MVP trophy for the Hoosier offensive line. They’ve been Joe Moore Award semifinalists each of the past two seasons and are allowing the offense to work with plenty of time. The Hoosiers have only allowed 1.47 sacks per game, ranking 34th in the nation.
It may not be as star-studded as the Miami front, and the loss of Stephen Daley, who posted at least 0.5 tackles for loss in 11 of his 13 games played, hurts the Hoosiers. But, Mikail Kamara has been outstanding, per usual. He’s the Big Ten’s pressure king and ranks eighth among Power Four edge rushers with 58 total pressures. Daniel Ndukwe was the next man up after Daley’s injury and delivered big-time, with two sacks, a forced fumble and a blocked punt against Oregon in the Rose Bowl.
Indiana’s linebackers are likely the nation’s best. Aiden Fisher is healthy again and has a career-best 9.5 tackles for loss. Sophomore Rolijah Hardy is backing up his elite play level with 2.0 sacks and seven tackles in the Big Ten Championship and ranks seventh in the league with 8.0 sacks.
You don’t see a player get a body of water named after him, but D’Angelo Ponds isn’t a normal player. Though undersized, the Florida native picked up his third consecutive All-American award as the sixth best coverage corner in the Power Four, per Pro Football Focus. He single-handedly took over the Peach Bowl and Rose Bowl, with a pick six on the first offensive snap of the game of the Peach Bowl and a forced fumble in the Rose Bowl. His running mate, Jamari Sharpe has a nose for the ball as a tough tackler, forcing two fumbles this season.
The true secondary power comes in the safety room. Louis Moore is a coverage nightmare, with six picks this season. Rover Amare Ferrell will be all over the field, hot on Moore’s tail with four picks of his own and stellar tackling.
Kicker Nico Radicic is near-automatic, with a program-record 16 consecutive made field goals. He’s also the third Hoosier to make at least 100 consecutive extra points.
10 Miami Notes
For the first time in the BCS and CFP era, the National Championship will be played at one of the participants’ home stadiums. The Hurricanes have played well in Miami Gardens under Cristobal, going 18-3 at home over the last three seasons and 7-1 in 2025.
Miami will be without starting cornerback Xavier Lucas for the first half after the super-senior was called for targeting in the second half against Ole Miss in the Fiesta Bowl.
Expect the Canes to try to start hot. In their past eight games, Miami has outscored their opponents 30-3, while holding their last four foes scoreless in the first frame.
Quarterback Carson Beck is the leader of the offense. He’s one of 64 quarterbacks to top the 10,000 career passing yard mark this century and Beck holds the fourth-highest completion percentage among those players. Beck’s 37-5 record as a starter - four years at Georgia, one at Miami - is the best winning percentage among active players. Against high-level competition, Beck has been outstanding, posting a career 154.4 passer rating against AP Top 25 teams, trailing only Baker Mayfield (162.9) since 2000. His 2025 passer rating against AP Top 25 foes of 160.6 trails only Fernando Mendoza.
Beck hasn’t been the catalyst for the offense during the playoff run, though. That’s been tailback Mark Fletcher Jr. Fletcher has 395 rushing yards so far in the Miami playoff run, just 81 shy of Ezekiel Elliott’s 2014 record for rushing yards in a single CFP. Throughout his career, Fletcher’s 459 postseason rushing yards are the second-most of any ACC player since 2000.
There’s no question the best freshman player in the nation - it’s Malachi Toney. The diminutive wideout, nicknamed “Baby Jesus,” is Miami’s leader in all-purpose yards, catches, receiving and punt return yards. His five grabs in Miami’s first CFP game against Texas A&M put Toney as the Miami single-season reception leader. But Toney isn’t the only threat on the outside. Transfers C.J. Daniels and Keelan Marion are lighting up the stat sheets as well. Marion is the Miami deep threat, with seven of his nine touchdown catches coming on completions of 30 yards or longer. Daniels is the leader of the room and a steady presence for Beck to find on the outside.
Mario Cristobal, a former Miami offensive lineman himself, has built his Canes to dominate in the trenches. On the offensive side of the ball, that means overwhelming opponents with a line that averages 336 pounds. The unit is anchored by star right tackle Francis Mauigoa, Jacobs Blocking Award winner as the ACC’s top offensive lineman. The unit is one of just eight teams that have had the same five starters across the entire year. That continuity has led to Miami allowing only 73 negative plays across all 15 games - the fewest among CFP competitors.
That dominance extends to the defensive line, but it’s new defensive coordinator Corey Hetherman that’s really made an impact. Since arriving ahead of this season, Hetherman has turned around the Canes defense. Miami jumped from 70th in points allowed all the way up to fifth, earning Hetherman a Broyles Award nomination and making Miami one of just eight programs to improve their points allowed by over 10.0 points over one season.
It helps when you have a menacing front seven like Hetherman has. Edge rushing duo Rueben Bain Jr. and Ahkeem Mesidor both earned All-ACC First Team bids and rank within Pro Football Focus’s top five in edge rusher grading. Bain in particular has been a menace, with 5.5 tackles for loss, four sacks and a blocked field goal so far this playoff. As a unit, Miami’s defensive line is generating Havoc on 12.97 percent of snaps, the 10th best mark in the nation.
Hetherman has a perfect blend of an attacking front seven and a ball hawking safety. Even down Lucas for the first half, the Canes are going to make life difficult on the Heisman winner. Defensive back Keionte Scott has been dynamite since returning from injury, with 3.0 tackles for loss and two sacks this playoff in the box safety role. Bryce Fitzgerald is a ball hawk of the highest regard, with two picks in the narrow victory over Texas A&M tying the senior for the Power Four lead with six interceptions.
Despite some struggles on a windy day in Bryan-College Station, Miami has a hyper-efficient field goal unit. Since Cristobal’s hiring, Miami is the most accurate Power Four team on field goals, converting at a 85 percent clip. Carter Davis has been effective all season, with only two misses on the season aside from his nightmare game against Texas A&M. Davis did, however, miss a kick in the Cotton Bowl against Ole Miss last round. If Davis falters further, expect Mario Cristobal to turn to veteran kicker Bert Auburn, who has made massive kicks in his career prior to Miami.
Keys to the Game
Indiana: Force Carson Beck into mistakes. Each of Miami’s losses have been marred by Beck’s mistakes, but as we’ve discussed, the senior has been very good this playoff run. Indiana’s defense should suffocate the Miami rushing attack, even if Mark Fletcher Jr. has gone nuclear down the stretch. If the talented secondary - namely D’Angelo Ponds and Louis Moore - can get in Beck’s head, Indiana can route the Canes.
Miami: Get pressure on Fernando Mendoza. Indiana’s offense has struggled at times when the opposition is able the get past the line. We saw it when Ohio State was able to force Mendoza’s worst game of the season behind Kenyatta Jackson and Caden Curry. Indiana struggles under pressure, and they’ll have their hands full with the Miami front seven, especially Bain and Mesidor.
Have any questions, ideas, article pitches, or information? With the new Substack features, you can directly message me! Hit the button below to send me a message, or reach out via email to griffin@sid-sports.com, or find us on your favorite social media platform like Facebook, Instagram, Substack Notes and Bluesky.