We’re nine weeks in, and as you’ve seen from my rankings, the pictures are starting to come into focus. With teams almost exclusively playing in conference games now, the playoff picture will only grow clearer as each week passes.
As with every year, the playoff got changed again. In case you need a refresher on how the teams are picked and adjustments to the format, here it is for you:
Five highest ranked conference champions. Note these do not have to be the Power Four and one Group of Five. These are just the flat five best.
Seven at-large teams as determined by CFP rankings.
Seeding is done straight, so the top four ranked teams get bye weeks. This is the big change from last year.
With that said, here’s how the bracket currently stands with my Week 9 rankings:
That’s where the picture stands for now, but there’s plenty of football left. Let’s get into the conference races.
ACC
In Right Now: Georgia Tech*
In The Hunt: Miami, Louisville, SMU, Virginia
Pray for Chaos: California, Clemson, Duke, Pittsburgh, Stanford
Yeah, the ACC race is wide open and likely will be for the rest of the season.
Currently, there are three unbeaten teams in the league: Georgia Tech, SMU and Virginia - remember, Virginia’s loss to NC State was a weird non-conference game that doesn’t count here at all. They don’t play each other at all because why would they?
To me, Georgia Tech and Miami are in reach of at-large bids, provided they don’t mess it up. SMU can easily join that conversation with home games against Miami and Louisville looming in the future. Virginia’s hopes rest on going unbeaten and winning the conference, as there just aren’t many resume-building opportunities.
For our Pray for Chaos tier, all these teams have either one or two in-conference losses. We’ve seen a lot of wild things this season and in the past, so it’s too early to rule anyone out. But their hopes rest on a conference championship win. That seems unlikely.
Big Ten
In Right Now: Indiana*, Ohio State, Oregon
In The Hunt: Michigan, USC
Pray for Chaos: Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, UCLA, Washington
As usual, the Big Ten has an elite tier in Indiana, Ohio State and Oregon. Ohio State doesn’t play either of the others. Indiana has already toppled Oregon on the road in Eugene.
So this race is really a two-man sprint between Indiana and Ohio State. It’s possible both could snag a bye, they’re in position for it now. That likely won’t hold after a Big Ten title tilt, though.
USC is on tenuous ground, but can boost their at-large resume with a win over Oregon, also in Autzen. They also have only one in-conference loss, so a title game run can’t be ruled out. The same goes for Michigan, who have played well and seem to have Ryan Day’s number. The path is there for the Wolverines to take it.
As with the ACC, we’ll probably see many of these Pray for Chaos teams drop off in the next few weeks as they cannibalize each other. Currently, they all have one or two losses in the Big Ten. Another one will have them hitting the road, but it’s too early to kick them to the curb quite yet.
Big 12
In Right Now: BYU*
In The Hunt: Arizona State, Cincinnati, Houston, Texas Tech
Pray for Chaos: Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, TCU, Utah
If you though the ACC was a mess, buckle up.
BYU and Cincinnati sit as the lone unbeatens, and as you can tell, I’m a lot higher on the Cougars. The scheduling gods are not. Every one of BYU’s upcoming opponents are listed here, save their season closing matchup against UCF. With a freshman quarterback that is doing his best job of running into brick walls, that’s a tall task. Cincinnati has a similar slate, with only a game against Arizona seeing a team not in the conference race.
The next three - Arizona State, Texas Tech and Houston - all have one loss. It’s likely either BYU or Cincinnati, and probably both, slip up at some point, opening the door for these teams to jump ahead. Texas Tech is probably best positioned for an at-large run, but resume boosting opportunities are aplenty in this league.
Pray for Chaos, like most conferences, is full of two-loss in-league teams. In the Big 12, we can’t count anyone out. Just look at last year. I had Arizona State sitting in the Pray for Chaos tier all the way until they catapulted to the top of the conference and stole a playoff bid. And almost beat Texas. None of these teams are out and every single one of them has the talent to get hot and go on a run to the playoffs. Count nobody out and keep your eyes on everybody.
SEC
In Right Now: Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Texas A&M*, Vanderbilt
In The Hunt: Missouri, Oklahoma
Pray for Chaos: LSU, Tennessee, Texas
Let’s get this out of the way first: Vandy’s in! At least, right now. And they can seriously hold onto a playoff spot. As I’ve been harping on in my recent rankings, the Commodores are good.
With that out of the way, it’s time to get your seats in the Colosseum because this is going to be a bloodbath. Texas A&M and Alabama are our two unbeatens in league play. But their schedules aren’t that bad. Alabama has only two games against teams listed here (at home against LSU and Oklahoma), plus an Iron Bowl. Texas A&M has just two road tilts. It’s conceivable they can go the rest of the way unscathed. But that’s not realistic, is it?
That leaves our one-loss contingent to pick up the pieces. All three of Georgia, Ole Miss and Vanderbilt have a close loss to a team of similar stature. And all three have resume-building wins to nab at-large spots. Fellow one-loss SEC teams Texas, Missouri and Oklahoma have built-in opportunities to get into the higher tier (Texas against Texas A&M, Missouri against Texas A&M, Oklahoma at Alabama).
And, because you can’t count out chaos, LSU is still ranked despite their two losses in-conference. I have Texas down here simply because of their body of work, but their ranking should net the Longhorns a higher spot. And Tennessee has the jets to beat anyone, they just have serious defensive concerns. If losses start piling up, the Volunteers are positioned to capitalize.
Group of Six/Independent
In Right Now: Notre Dame, South Florida*
In The Hunt: James Madison*, Memphis, Navy, Tulane
Pray for Chaos: Boise State*, UNLV, Southern Miss, Troy
Notre Dame ends up down here because the ACC thing I did last year makes even less sense than before. The Irish have a fairly weak schedule aside from Navy going forward and should have no problem going unbeaten. That is, as long as Fran Brown and Syracuse have nothing to say about it.
I firmly believe the American champion is going to get into the playoff because these teams are good. South Florida retains the crown in my rankings, but they’re joined by Navy and Tulane as unbeaten in the conference. Memphis got tripped up by UAB in a firing bounce-back game, but the Tigers are right there along with the rest. The good news is the only matchup between those four that isn’t on the regular season schedule is Tulane-Navy.
James Madison has played their way onto that tier, though, and I have them sniffing the rankings. Their only loss is a close one to Louisville, who keeps looking better. The Sun Belt East is all Dukes, but the West has some interesting chaos potential. Both Southern Miss and Troy sit at 5-2 overall, but don’t have much of anything resume-wise to speak of. Finishing the regular season unscathed and notching a convincing win over James Madison in the Sun Belt Championship game along with some American chaos can get them in, but it’s a stretch.
The same goes for Boise State and UNLV. Whoever wins the Mountain West crown, as long as it’s one of those two, can snag a playoff spot if the teams above them falter. But that’s a tall ask.
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