2025 CFB Bracketology: Week 14
You guide to Hate Week's hate-watching chaos scenarios
Last week wasn’t going to have a ton of impact on the field outside of the presumed ACC and Group of Six chaos. Those delivered. The other leagues, not so much.
But this week? This is Hate Week. The gnarliest, scrappiest, most outright dangerous week for anyone’s playoff hopes. There’s a lot at stake this weekend from seeds to bids to conference championships and outright at-large spots.
If you’ve been waiting for the most consequential week in college football, the time has come.
As always, here’s the current playoff format:
Five highest ranked conference champions. Note these do not have to be the Power Four and one Group of Six. These are just the flat five best.
Seven at-large teams as determined by CFP rankings.
Seeding is done straight, so the top four ranked teams get bye weeks. This is the big change from last year.
Let’s get into the conference races.
ACC
Lock: None
In Right Now: Virginia*
In The Hunt: Pittsburgh, SMU
Pray for Chaos: Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami
Well, that’s awkward. I removed Duke from contention last week only for ACC Chaos to put the Blue Devils back in the race. And, Virginia isn’t my highest-rated ACC team, but would be the presumed conference champion based on how everything looks right now.
So, with so much at stake, let’s break down each team’s path to the ACC Championship.
Virginia controls their own destiny, a win in the Commonwealth Cup against Virginia Tech locks the Hoos into a trip to Charlotte. If Virginia Tech pulls the upset, Virginia would need losses from SMU, NC State and Pittsburgh to get in.
SMU also has their destiny in their hands. A win over Louisville sends the Mustangs to their second consecutive ACC title game. A loss would have SMU fans pulling for Duke, NC State and Virginia Tech to suffer the same fates.
Pittsburgh, despite having only one loss in-conference, needs help to get in. They’ll need to topple Miami at Acrisure Stadium and have either Virginia or SMU lose. A loss to the Hurricanes ends Pittsburgh’s hopes.
Duke has returned to contention at just 6-5 and presents the nightmare scenario for the league if they were to win the ACC title. However, to even get to the game, the Blue Devils are counting on losses by Miami and Virginia as well as one of SMU or NC State in addition to their own win over Wake Forest.
Georgia Tech squandered their inside track to the playoff with a loss to Pittsburgh last weekend. The ACC Championship remains their main hopes to getting in, and they’ll need losses from SMU, Virginia, Duke and Pittsburgh to get to Charlotte, as their last game is a non-conference clash with rival Georgia. But, a healthy upset of the Dawgs brings Georgia Tech into the at-large conversation, especially if Pittsburgh and NC State earn big wins and improve the Yellow Jackets’ strength of record.
Finally, we land with Miami. They’re the highest rated ACC team in my rankings, but that’s not how the bids work. After all, it’s the five highest ranked conference champions, not just highest ranked teams from each conference. To get that elusive ACC Championship - the Canes have never won one - there’s two paths, each starting with a win over Pittsburgh. The first has losses by Virginia and Duke. The second, with losses by SMU, Duke and North Carolina. But, the Canes could contend for an at-large bid. They currently sit at 13th in both the CFP and SID Sports rankings and at 10-2 with a head-to-head win over similarly 10-2 Notre Dame, Miami could see a jump if they play lights-out against Pittsburgh
Biggest Remaining Games: Georgia Tech at Georgia (Nov. 28), North Carolina at NC State (Nov. 29), Miami at Pittsburgh (Nov. 29), SMU at California (Nov. 29), Virginia at Virginia Tech (Nov. 29), Wake Forest at Duke (Nov. 29)
Big Ten
Lock: Indiana, Ohio State*, Oregon
In Right Now: None
In The Hunt: Michigan
Pray for Chaos: None
Oregon’s win over USC cemented the Ducks as an at-large team. In fact, the Big Ten is pretty locked into three teams, with the presumptive Big Ten championship between Indiana and Ohio State serving as a seeding battle for who gets a first round bye.
But there is one chaos scenario remaining in the Big Ten. And it’ll play out on the big stage at high noon in Ann Arbor. If Michigan wins, all hell breaks loose in the Big Ten.
At that point, Ohio State, Oregon and Michigan would all have one in-conference loss. Tiebreakers from the Big Ten state that Oregon would advance to face Indiana in the conference title game. If Oregon was to lose to Washington, that would pave the way for Michigan to head to Indianapolis.
There’s plenty of other chaos that comes from Indiana losing to Purdue, but let’s be honest here. That’s not going to happen.
So, if you’re a fan of chaos, you best be pulling for an Ohio State loss to Michigan. And, if you want supreme chaos, Dan Lanning once again being foiled by Washington would be the cherry on top.
Biggest Remaining Games: Ohio State at Michigan (Nov. 29), Oregon at Washington (Nov. 29)
Big 12
Lock: None
In Right Now: Texas Tech*
In The Hunt: BYU, Utah
Pray for Chaos: Arizona State
You knew there was going to be some wild Big 12 shenanigans, didn’t you?
Texas Tech is still not a lock to me, but a win this weekend will all but put the Red Raiders into the final field. They fully control their own destiny. However, if Texas Tech can’t top West Virginia, an Arizona State loss also gets them to Jerryworld.
BYU is the next most likely team to get into the Big 12 title game. A win over a very bad UCF team punches their ticket. Alternatively, if for some strange reason UCF gets the win, a loss by Arizona State also gets the Cougars in. Now, an Arizona State win coupled with a BYU loss doesn’t fully eliminate the Cougars - then, they’d be relying on a loss by Texas Tech, and wins by Arizona State and Utah.
Speaking of the Utes, they’re in range of an at-large bid even if they don’t get into the conference championship by virtue of the committee placing them 12th. I have them 15th, so it may be a bit longer of a shot. Either way, they need a win over Kansas to make this all worth it and even then, a Big 12 title is the most likely path. To get there, Utah needs a Texas Tech loss and wins by Arizona State and BYU.
Finally, Arizona State somehow is still alive in this mess. They absolutely need a win over rival Arizona to get into Jerryworld for a shot at the playoff. After a win, two scenarios punch the Sun Devils’ tickets. The first: losses by BYU and Utah. The second: losses by Texas Tech and Utah and a BYU win.
I don’t know about you, but I can see all of these scenarios happening. After all, chaos reigns in the Big 12.
Biggest Games Remaining: Arizona at Arizona State (Nov. 28), Kansas at Utah (Nov. 28), Texas Tech at West Virginia (Nov. 29), UCF at BYU (Nov. 29)
SEC
Lock: Texas A&M*
In Right Now: Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ole Miss
In The Hunt: Texas, Vanderbilt
Pray for Chaos: None
This one’s far from settled. Texas A&M joins the locks at 11-0 and staring down a Lone Star Showdown game against Texas. Even with a loss, there’s no way an 11-1 SEC team misses the field.
Right now, four teams are still alive in the SEC title race: Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, and Texas A&M. The path is easiest for Alabama: win and you’re in. A loss eliminates the Tide. And, at 9-3, the Tide are likely out of luck for an at-large bid.
Georgia, since they are playing a non-conference Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate against Georgia Tech, needs a loss by either Alabama or Texas A&M to get in. A win against Georgia Tech will lock the Dawgs into a playoff spot. A loss and missed SEC Championship will pit the 10-2 Dawgs with losses to Alabama and Georgia Tech against the other two-loss teams for a playoff spot. I think they’re in regardless. But, enough of a possibility exists that Georgia stays out of the Locks tier.
Ole Miss has the most help needed, but it all starts with a win over Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl. Then, losses by Alabama and Texas A&M put the Rebels on the train to Atlanta. Still, they’re likely an at-large team with a win. But a loss to Mississippi State likely has the then 10-2 Ole Miss tumbling out of the playoff due to a lack of high-quality wins paired with a bad loss.
Oklahoma is in right now as an at-large team, but can’t make the SEC Championship game. If they beat rival LSU, the Sooners are in.
Texas is the longest of longshots, but a convincing win over Texas A&M and plenty of chaos across the nation could get the Longhorns in. But we’re talking astronomical, 2007 levels of madness here. That’s not likely to happen.
Vanderbilt remains on the outside, but has a decent resume-boosting opportunity against Tennessee. Personally, I think the Vols aren’t a quality team, but that’s just me. Vandy is my second team out right now, though, so they’re in range for a sniped at-large bid if any of the SEC’s other programs slip up.
Biggest Games Remaining: Georgia Tech at Georgia (Nov. 28), Ole Miss at Mississippi State (Nov. 28), Texas A&M at Texas (Nov. 28), Alabama at Auburn (Nov. 29), LSU at Oklahoma (Nov. 29), Vanderbilt at Tennessee (Nov. 29)
Group of Six/Independent
Lock: None
In Right Now: Notre Dame, James Madison*
In The Hunt: Navy, North Texas, South Florida,Tulane*
Pray for Chaos: East Carolina
The Miami loss from Notre Dame keeps the Irish out of the locks, but a 70-3 blowout of Syracuse shows Marcus Freeman’s team has national championship on the mind. They’re very good.
James Madison has eclipsed the American teams in my mind, as the Dukes look like the most complete Group of Six team in the nation. They’ve also locked up a Sun Belt Championship game at home with the winner of Troy at Southern Miss squaring off against JMU for the conference title. If either team can pull off an upset of James Madison, I don’t think they have the resume to get in over the American champion, so JMU is in the driver’s seat.
The American, as it has been all season, is an absolute mess. Right now, Tulane is the top dog and just one slot below James Madison in my rankings. A win for the Green Wave sends them to the American championship. North Texas is also very good, ranked 23 in my rankings, and a win against Temple sends them to the conference title game. Navy could come out of nowhere to get into the field and I have them at 25th. If Navy wins, an ECU win would likely push the Midshipmen into the conference title. Or, of course, a Navy win and loss by either Tulane or North Texas gets them in. South Florida is still in the running with losses by Navy and North Texas. ECU has a very outside shot, but the Pirates need losses by pretty much everyone else and then some computerized help. But they’re still alive!
The Mountain West, CUSA and MAC have been eliminated.
Biggest Games Remaining: Navy at Memphis (Nov. 27), Temple at North Texas (Nov. 28), Charlotte at Tulane (Nov. 29), East Carolina at Florida Atlantic (Nov. 29), Rice at South Florida (Nov. 29), Troy at Southern Miss (Nov. 29)
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