2025 CFB Bracketology: Week 13
Breaking down conference and at-large races with playoff stakes
So maybe we did finally did get some clarity in the playoff race, even if it was fringe teams falling off the board. But we have to take our wins where we get them, right?
Even with that semblance of clarity, there are still a ton of teams still very much in the hunt. And a ton of scenarios that can play out and bring chaos to the entire playoff picture.
I’m also opening up a new tier called “Lock.” These teams, as I’m sure you can guess, have all but locked in their spots in the field. Of course, nobody is completely locked into a playoff bid, but these teams are as close as it gets and I don’t see much of a path where they’re left out of the final bracket.
As always, here’s the current playoff format:
Five highest ranked conference champions. Note these do not have to be the Power Four and one Group of Six. These are just the flat five best.
Seven at-large teams as determined by CFP rankings.
Seeding is done straight, so the top four ranked teams get bye weeks. This is the big change from last year.
Let’s get into the conference races.
ACC
Lock: None
In Right Now: Georgia Tech*
In The Hunt: Pittsburgh, SMU, Virginia
Pray for Chaos: Miami
Kiss goodbye to Louisville and Duke, who suffered season-ending losses last week.
The four-team race between Georgia Tech, Pittsburgh, SMU and Virginia is still the likely determinant of who gets into the playoff as the league looks to lock down only one bid.
There are still outside at-large possibilities in Georgia Tech and Miami. If both programs win out in the regular season, it’s going to create some very serious conversations. For the Yellow Jackets, that would include a head-to-head win over Georgia before considering whatever happened in the ACC Championship game they’d most likely find themselves in. For Miami, an ACC Championship is out of the picture, but at 10-2, they could stack themselves up well against Notre Dame. There’s a solid degree of separation between the two programs in my rankings and the CFP Committee’s, but a strong Hurricane finish and head-to-head win over Notre Dame could sneak Miami into the field.
Biggest Remaining Games: Georgia Tech at Pittsburgh (Nov. 22), Georgia Tech at Georgia (Nov. 28), Miami at Pittsburgh (Nov. 29)
Big Ten
Lock:Indiana, Ohio State*
In Right Now: Oregon
In The Hunt: Michigan, USC
Pray for Chaos: None
Chaos just isn’t coming to the Big Ten, as Iowa and Minnesota have no chance to make the Big Ten championship and snipe a bid.
That leaves the big three of Indiana and Ohio State as locks to get into the field. Oregon still has business to take care of, but is very close to getting into that top tier.
Still, there is potential for a fourth Big Ten team getting in. USC pulling an upset over Oregon on the road is the big chaos, but that might knock the two-loss Ducks out of the playoffs. At that point, I’d assume USC would jump in. Some chaos amongst other playoff hopefuls is also good for USC, who is the second team out in my last rankings.
Michigan is the big spoiler here. With just one in-conference loss, the Wolverines could inject the chaos we’re all hoping for with an upset over Ohio State in the Big House. But Michigan has to get past a trip to Maryland to handle first before we can start looking at that tiebreaker nonsense.
Biggest Remaining Games: USC at Oregon (Nov. 22), Ohio State at Michigan (Nov. 29)
Big 12
Lock:
In Right Now: Texas Tech*
In The Hunt: BYU, Utah
Pray for Chaos: Arizona State, Cincinnati, Houston
With TCU getting dominated by BYU last week, a lot of the Big 12’s regular season big games have become just scoreboard curiosities instead of lock-in potential games.
Texas Tech is now in range of potentially swiping a bye, but would need help with a lopsided upset in the Big Ten or SEC Championships and another dominant showing against their conference championship foe. I’m not calling the Red Raiders locks yet, as they could very well drop out of the field if they’re embarrassed by a lesser opponent in the conference championship, but they’re with Oregon right on the edge.
BYU and Utah are both still in the at-large race too. If the SEC cannibalizes like it’s prone to do most years, the two Utah-based rivals are well-positioned to make a jump. BYU is my first team out and redemption in the Big 12 Championship over Texas Tech is likely the league’s best path to multiple bids. Utah keeps bowling over lesser foes, but lacks a top-tier win. Still, the Utes are playing at a playoff level since their blowout against Texas Tech. The Committee is higher on Utah than I am, but they’re also on the cusp of a chaos-related playoff bid.
The chaos tier all hinges on Cincinnati upsetting BYU this weekend and opening up a mess of tiebreakers to find Texas Tech’s dancing pair at Jerryworld. Theoretically, if the Bearcats get their win, any of these teams could win out, take down Texas Tech, and nab a spot in the playoff.
But we’ll look at those tiebreakers if we need to.
Biggest Games Remaining: BYU at Cincinnati (Nov. 22)
SEC
Lock: None
In Right Now: Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Texas A&M*
In The Hunt: Texas, Vanderbilt
Pray for Chaos: None
As we head into SEC cupcake week, I’m keeping the entire conference in the “In Right Now” tier. That’s because each one could still slip up against lesser opponents. Of this group, Texas A&M is the closest to a lock, but if Alabama loses the Iron Bowl, they’re likely out. Ditto for Georgia in Clean, Old Fashioned Hate. And for Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl. And for Oklahoma against their rivals…LSU?
You get the point.
There are still seven SEC teams alive in the playoff hunt and five are in, leaving Texas and Vanderbilt on the outside.
Texas has the clearest path: beating Texas A&M in the Lone Star Showdown and getting some help to get to the SEC Championship game. Win that, and the Longhorns return to the playoff. I don’t think just stamping their ticket is enough at this point, but I could be wrong on that.
Vanderbilt has to beat Tennessee in their season-closing game. Then, Vandy needs help. With head-to-head losses to Alabama and Texas, both teams need to lose out for the Commodores to seriously contend for a spot.
Biggest Games Remaining: Texas A&M at Texas (Nov. 28), Georgia Tech at Georgia (Nov. 28)
Group of Six/Independent
Lock: None
In Right Now: Notre Dame, Tulane*
In The Hunt: James Madison*, Navy, North Texas
Pray for Chaos: East Carolina, South Florida, Southern Miss
Notre Dame isn’t a lock yet because of that pesky loss to Miami that might come back to bite them. But the Irish are playing like a national title-level contender since that loss, so they’re close to a lock.
The American continues to cannibalize. Tulane remains on top for now, but North Texas and Navy are breathing down the Green Wave’s neck. Plus, East Carolina and Southern Miss with two losses in-conference could make a run, but both would need serious help both inside and out of the conference to punch their ticket to the playoff.
James Madison remains the main alternative to the American supremacy, but you can’t discount a vastly improved Southern Miss. The Golden Eagles are 5-1 in Sun Belt play and 7-3 on the season. A bad loss to Texas State makes the shocking turnaround look worse, but they’re still a team capable of beating James Madison. If the Dukes fall and the American continues to cannibalize, Southern Miss could have an outside shot of getting in.
The Mountain West, CUSA and MAC have been eliminated.
Biggest Games Remaining: Navy at Memphis (Nov. 28), Troy at Southern Miss (Nov. 29)
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