2025 CFB Bracketology: Week 12
Breaking down conference and at-large races with playoff stakes
I’ve given up on thinking each week is going to make the playoff picture clearer. It’s simply not going to happen. In fact, I’m pretty convinced we won’t get a clear playoff picture until the committee releases their final rankings and sets the field. Even then we might not have clarity!
Either way, that means there’s a ton of teams still hanging on at the fringes of the race. Do we know most of this year’s playoff teams? Probably. But there’s also untold potential for chaos that we’ll get into.
Plus, now’s the point in the season where we can play everyone’s favorite game! No, not college football. The tiebreaker game!
As always, here’s the current playoff format:
Five highest ranked conference champions. Note these do not have to be the Power Four and one Group of Five. These are just the flat five best.
Seven at-large teams as determined by CFP rankings.
Seeding is done straight, so the top four ranked teams get bye weeks. This is the big change from last year.
With that said, here’s how the bracket currently stands with my Week 12 rankings:
That’s where the picture stands for now, but there’s plenty of football left. Let’s get into the conference races.
ACC
In Right Now: Georgia Tech*
In The Hunt: Duke, Pittsburgh, SMU, Virginia
Pray for Chaos: Louisville, Miami
Georgia Tech reclaims the top slot and playoff bid, but this league is very much up for grabs. Aside from Georgia Tech, who’s season-closing rivalry against Georgia is the only true at-large resume building game on the schedule, the ACC factors to be a one-bid league with their conference champion getting in.
And, wouldn’t you look at that. Five teams are locked together at the top of the standings. That’s right, it’s time for the tiebreaker game!
For those unfamiliar, this is the time where I try to piece together the wild, convoluted manner of the ACC’s tiebreakers. It really is a good time. If we take the FPI projections of games between the tied teams, Duke would net a win over Virginia and Georgia Tech gets one over Pitt, making it a three-team race. But we’ll cover all avenues, just in case. The “Pure Chaos” scenario is if all teams enter with two losses, which would include: Duke losing to Virginia and Wake Forest, Georgia Tech losing to Pitt, Pitt losing to Miami, and SMU losing to Louisville. If we take that route, the Hoos get in with just one conference loss and tiebreakers would determine the final ACC Championship bid.
Tiebreaker 1: Combined head-to-head win percentage among tied teams
FPI Projections - Duke 0-1, Georgia Tech 1-0, SMU 0-0. Georgia Tech Advances, move to next tiebreaker.
Duke loss - Georgia Tech 0-0, SMU 0-0, Virginia 0-0. Move to next tirebreaker.
Georgia Tech loss - Duke 0-0, Pittsburgh 0-0, SMU 0-0
Pure Chaos - Duke 0-1, Georgia Tech 1-1, Louisville 1-1, Miami 1-2, Pittsburgh 1-2, SMU 1-1. Duke, Miami, Pittsburgh eliminated, move to next tiebreaker.
Tiebreaker 2: If all tied teams are not common opponents, the tied team that defeated or lost to all other opponents.
FPI Projections - Nobody meets criteria. Move to next tiebreaker.
Duke loss - Nobody meets criteria. Move to next tiebreaker.
Georgia Tech loss - - Nobody meets criteria. Move to next tiebreaker.
Pure Chaos - - Nobody meets criteria. Move to next tiebreaker.
Win-percentage against all common opponents
FPI Projections - Duke 1.000, SMU 0.750, Duke advances, Duke-Georgia Tech ACC Championship.
Duke loss - Georgia Tech 1.000, SMU 0.000, Virginia 0.000. Georgia Tech to ACC Championship, move to next tiebreaker.
Georgia Tech loss - Duke 1.000, Pittsburgh 1.000, SMU 1.000. Move to next tiebreaker.
Pure Chaos - Georgia Tech 1.000, Louisville 1.000, SMU 1.000.0 Move to next tiebreaker.
Win percentage against common opponents based upon their order of finish
Duke loss - No wins for SMU or Virginia against common opponent (Wake Forest). Move to next tiebreaker.
Georgia Tech loss - All tied teams undefeated against common foes. Move to next tiebreaker.
Pure Chaos - All tied teams undefeated against common foes. Move to next tiebreaker.
Combined win percentage of conference opponents
Duke loss - SMU 0.380, Virginia 0.457. Virginia advances to face Georgia Tech in the ACC Championship.
Georgia Tech loss - Duke 0.500, Pitt 0.362, SMU 0.380. Duke and SMU advance to ACC Championship.
Pure Chaos - Georgia Tech 0.426, Louisville 0.553, SMU 0.380. Louisville advances to face Virginia in the ACC Championship.
So yeah, the ACC’s a mess. If we’re tracking the scenarios, that’s five different possible ACC Champions. Obviously, a 9-4 Duke winning the conference is the big chaos player, but there isn’t much else.
Miami’s only hope is an at-large bid, which is still somehow within reach. If the Canes go unbeaten and finish with a very similar 10-2 record to a Notre Dame team they beat, the committee will have a tough conversation.
Biggest Remaining Games: Virginia at Duke (Nov. 15), Georgia Tech at Pittsburgh (Nov. 22), Louisville at SMU (Nov. 22), Georgia Tech at Georgia (Nov. 28), Miami at Pittsburgh (Nov. 29)
Big Ten
In Right Now: Indiana, Ohio State*, Oregon
In The Hunt: Michigan, USC
Pray for Chaos: Iowa, Minnesota
The Big Ten picture just narrowed a ton.
Ohio State moved up to first in my rankings, making the Buckeyes now the presumptive Big Ten champion. That’s the only change in the top three, all of which are getting in right now.
Michigan and USC each have only one loss in the league, so could make a title run with big wins. Their remaining schedules would have that as a Michigan win over Ohio State, and USC with wins over Iowa and Oregon. All of those are great resume-building opportunities.
But USC's best hope is an at-large bid, which is well within range. Especially if the Trojans can upset Oregon on the road.
Minnesota and Iowa are technically still in the race, but may be eliminated just by context in a week. They essentially need all the teams ahead of them to lose out for tiebreaker nightmare to take over, and even then I don’t know if the Gophers or Hawkeyes get in.
Biggest Remaining Games: Minnesota at Oregon (Nov. 14), Iowa at USC (Nov. 15), USC at Oregon (Nov. 22), Ohio State at Michigan (Nov. 29)
Big 12
In Right Now: Texas Tech*
In The Hunt: BYU, Cincinnati
Pray for Chaos: Arizona State, Houston, TCU, Utah
Like I predicted last week, the two-bid Big 12 projection died as quickly as it arrived.
There’s still intrigue in this race, don’t get me wrong. But it’s all but assured that we’ll see a Texas Tech-BYU matchup in the conference title tilt.
Cincinnati is still waiting in the wings, though, if either of BYU or Texas Tech slip up again. Right now, they’re on the wrong side of the tiebreakers, but the one-loss Bearcats are still a threat. Plus, their head-to-head game against BYU is essentially a play-in game for the Big 12 title.
The two-loss teams are still in the hunt, but would need at least two of BYU, Cincinnati and Texas Tech to pick up a loss for tiebreakers to even think of giving them a chance. TCU, with three in-conference losses, still has a shot based on their schedule. If they win out against BYU, Houston and Cincinnati, the Horned Frogs are well-positioned to get in, but still need some help.
For another scenario to check in on, if all goes according to plan and BYU and Texas Tech meet at Jerryworld, we could see a situation where the league gets two bids. Think of the Clemson-SMU ACC Championship last year, where a BYU win and Texas Tech’s strong resume would get both teams in.
Biggest Games Remaining: TCU at BYU (Nov. 15), BYU at Cincinnati (Nov. 22), TCU at Houston (Nov. 22), Cincinnati at TCU (Nov. 29)
SEC
In Right Now: Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Texas, Texas A&M*
In The Hunt: Oklahoma, Vanderbilt
Pray for Chaos: None
Before you crucify me, yes, Texas has gotten into the bracket for the time being. We’ll see how long that lasts, as the Longhorns control their own destiny.
In fact, most of the SEC teams do. If the ones in the race win out, they’re all in. Georgia and Texas have the most resume-building potential with a head-to-head matchup and games looming against rivals Georgia Tech and Texas A&M, respectively.
For Oklahoma to get in, the Sooners need some help. Right now, they sit at 11 just a tick behind Texas. But, two lower-ranked conference champions bump Oklahoma out of the race. Their game against Alabama this weekend is all but an elimination game.
Vandy, sitting at 15, is also within range of an at-large bid. But their remaining schedule is against Kentucky and at Tennessee. I have no faith in the Volunteers, but the AP and CFP committees keep ranking them, so maybe there’s a quality win opportunity there? Either way, it’s crazy to be thinking of Vanderbilt of all teams as a playoff contender this late into November.
Biggest Games Remaining: Oklahoma at Alabama (Nov. 15), Texas vs. Georgia (Nov. 15), Texas A&M at Texas (Nov. 28), Georgia Tech at Georgia (Nov. 28)
Group of Six/Independent
In Right Now: Notre Dame, Tulane*
In The Hunt: James Madison*, Navy, North Texas, South Florida
Pray for Chaos: East Carolina, Memphis, Southern Miss
Notre Dame trounced Navy. They’re still in, but have their Miami loss to worry about if they falter down the stretch.
The American simply cannot get out of its own way. For the fourth time in five weeks, my top dog in the conference has shifted. Now, it’s Tulane after their win over Memphis. Navy, North Texas and South Florida all still have only one loss in-conference, and South Florida is ranked one slot below Tulane in my latest rankings while North Texas is in the Next Five Out.
James Madison stays hot and got into the rankings, clocking in at 25th in my latest set. They’re going to cruise to the Sun Belt Championship, most likely against Southern Miss. The Golden Eagles are putting together a great season in year one under Charles Huff, but just need the American to keep doing American things and to win the conference crown to get in.
ECU and Memphis are on the outside looking in, so would need serious voodoo to get in.
The Mountain West, CUSA and MAC have been eliminated.
Biggest Games Remaining: Memphis at East Carolina (Nov. 15), Notre Dame at Pittsburgh (Nov. 15), South Florida at Navy (Nov. 15), Navy at Memphis (Nov. 28), Troy at Southern Miss (Nov. 29)
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