2025 CFB Bracketology: Week 11
Breaking down conference and at-large races with playoff stakes
Even without most of the top teams in action, the playoff picture got all kinds of messed up. Upsets abounded in the ACC. The Big 12 race cleaned up some. The SEC picture got just a bit clearer.
This is the most chaotic season in recent memory. It’s only going to get even more chaotic as the season stretches on.
But we also got our first look at the College Football Playoff committee’s rankings, which released Tuesday night. They look rather similar to my own rankings, if I do say so myself. Should I be deciding the playoff teams? I’m not going to disagree with that point.
As always, here’s the current playoff format:
Five highest ranked conference champions. Note these do not have to be the Power Four and one Group of Five. These are just the flat five best.
Seven at-large teams as determined by CFP rankings.
Seeding is done straight, so the top four ranked teams get bye weeks. This is the big change from last year.
With that said, here’s how the bracket currently stands with my Week 11 rankings:
That’s where the picture stands for now, but there’s plenty of football left. Let’s get into the conference races.
ACC
In Right Now: Virginia*
In The Hunt: Duke, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Pittsburgh, SMU
Pray for Chaos: Miami
Well that was a nightmare week for the ACC.
Losses by Georgia Tech (to NC State) and Miami (to SMU) have sunk the hopes of the ACC being a two-bid league. There’s still an outside shot for Georgia Tech, who can notch a huge resume-boosting win over Georgia in the final week of the season, but it’s looking like just the ACC Champion gets in.
Right now that’s Virginia, with the Cavaliers being the only unbeaten team in the league and holding the top spot in the ACC’s standings. But their propensity to insanely close one-score games against any caliber of opponent will likely come back to bite the Hoos.
I’ve got a bunch of teams bottled up in the middle of the ACC race, all with one loss in-conference. Someone is going to head to Charlotte, so at least one team from this tier will have to seize their opportunity. The aforementioned Georgia Tech finishes one slot below Virginia at 15. Louisville comes in just below that at 16 - but has a head-to-head loss to Virginia on their resume. SMU is sitting on the outside of the rankings, but have been playing much better ball in recent weeks. Pittsburgh is as hot as anyone behind true freshman Mason Heintchel. Duke has a strong offense, but a head-to-head loss to Georgia Tech.
Miami has all but played themselves off the playoff picture, suffering their second back-breaking conference loss. Still, holding onto a 18th place ranking and with plenty of ACC drama to come, the Canes aren’t fully eliminated just yet.
Biggest Remaining Games: Virginia at Duke (Nov. 15), Georgia Tech at Pittsburgh (Nov. 22), Louisville at SMU (Nov. 22), Georgia Tech at Georgia (Nov. 28), Miami at Pittsburgh (Nov. 29)
Big Ten
In Right Now: Indiana*, Ohio State, Oregon
In The Hunt: Iowa, Michigan, USC
Pray for Chaos: Minnesota, Northwestern, UCLA, Washington
All three of the Big Ten teams inside the race were idle last week, so there wasn’t much opportunity for change here.
In fact, there’s not a whole lot of change at all. Iowa, Michigan and USC all have marquee matchups coming up that can catapult them into the playoff picture. USC is firmly on the bubble with just one in-conference loss and moving up a spot to 14th in my latest rankings.
The chaos tier is really hanging on by a thread here. Nebraska got bounced with the loss of Dylan Raiola and their loss to USC last week. But the other four are still technically in range to snipe a bid if the Big Ten decides to go belly up. Unlikely, but the possibility still exists so they have to be here.
Biggest Remaining Games: Northwestern at USC (Nov. 7), Oregon at Iowa (Nov. 8), Minnesota at Oregon (Nov. 14), Iowa at USC (Nov. 15), Michigan at Northwestern (Nov. 15), UCLA at Ohio State (Nov. 15), USC at Oregon (Nov. 22), Minnesota at Northwestern (Nov. 22), Washington at UCLA (Nov. 22), Ohio State at Michigan (Nov. 29), Oregon at Washington (Nov. 29), UCLA at USC (Nov. 29)
Big 12
In Right Now: BYU*, Texas Tech
In The Hunt: Cincinnati
Pray for Chaos: Arizona State, Houston, TCU, Utah
The Big 12 enters the week as a two-bid league, but that’s going to be unlikely as BYU and Texas Tech go head-to-head this weekend. They’re in the driver’s seat for a bid into the dance, so the winner is going to take over the conference.
Past that, Cincinnati is still waiting in the wings with just one conference loss, but it was a trouncing by Utah last week. Plus, a loss to Nebraska doesn’t look good on the register.
The chaos tier - as is always the case in the Big 12 - isn’t so much predicated on chaos as it is on the Big 12 being the Big 12. Let’s break it down in terms of this weekend’s massive conference matchup:
If BYU beats Texas Tech, the Red Raiders will have two conference losses, moving Cincinnati ahead of them in the rankings. One slip up by the Bearcats opens up a whole can of tiebreaker worms for the Big 12 Championship’s final spot aside from BYU.
If Texas Tech beats BYU, there will be no unbeaten teams in the entire league. Texas Tech, BYU and Cincinnati would all have one loss. Another one by two of the three - definitely more likely than you’d think - would open up that same tiebreaker mess.
And that’s all not including the potential for an absolute meltdown from one of the league’s top three teams. It may seem like the Big 12 race is settled, but it’s far from it.
Biggest Games Remaining: BYU at Texas Tech (Nov. 8), TCU at BYU (Nov. 15), BYU at Cincinnati (Nov. 22), TCU at Houston (Nov. 22), Cincinnati at TCU (Nov. 29)
SEC
In Right Now: Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Texas A&M*
In The Hunt: Oklahoma, Texas, Vanderbilt
Pray for Chaos: Missouri
Vanderbilt’s loss to Texas ends the glorious reign of the Commodore in the playoff bracket. So sad.
The top four in the league are safe until they go on to cannibalize each other down the stretch. It’s the ones in the hunt that are more interesting to me. Oklahoma and Texas are always tied together by their yearly Red River Shootout, but both are rounding into form down the stretch. And Vandy only has two losses in-conference.
The biggest hurdle for the In The Hunt teams to clear is that Alabama and Texas A&M are unbeaten in the conference. But both will be tested (Alabama will face Oklahoma and voodoo opponents LSU and Auburn, Texas A&M gets Texas and Missouri). It’s possible, maybe even likely, that one will falter and open the race up again. But, it’s also possible they’re on a collision course for the SEC Championship, since both control their own destinies.
Missouri is still hanging on after their bye week, but face an elimination game at home against Texas A&M. Win and the Tigers stay alive. Lose and they’re done. Down to their third-string quarterback, it’s a tough ask.
Biggest Games Remaining: Texas A&M at Missouri (Nov. 8), Oklahoma at Alabama (Nov. 15), Texas vs. Georgia (Nov. 15), Oklahoma at Missouri (Nov. 22), Texas A&M at Texas (Nov. 28), Georgia Tech at Georgia (Nov. 28)
Group of Six/Independent
In Right Now: Notre Dame, Memphis*
In The Hunt: James Madison*, Navy, North Texas, South Florida, Tulane
Pray for Chaos: Boise State, East Carolina, San Diego State*, Southern Miss, Troy, UNLV
Notre Dame and Memphis both cruised to easy wins. They remain in the race.
The American race is still likely to decide things. All of Memphis, ECU, Navy, North Texas, South Florida and Tulane have one loss in-conference. With how the American schedule is set up, we should see an answer for that before the conference championship.
We’ve already seen the American teams cannibalize and wreck each other’s chances, which opens the door for the other conferences. James Madison remains the clear front-runner, but a much-improved San Diego State is coming in hot. Boise State is technically still in the thick of the Mountain West race, but lost quarterback Maddux Madsen to a horrible injury. If the American can’t stay afloat and James Madison takes a dive, things are going to get fishy.
On the flip side, there is even more chaos potential. If James Madison stays hot and someone from the American takes over down the stretch - North Texas is mighty good as of late - we could see two Group of Six teams get in. It would need some absolute madness from the ACC to get it done, but they already have their top team down to 14th in my rankings. For reference, the American has Memphis at 22, South Florida at 24, and North Texas at 26. James Madison is right below the Mean Green at 27.
For all you Group of Six sickos like myself, it’s time to lock in to hate watch the ACC. We can get two bids. It’s possible.
Biggest Games Remaining: Tulane at Memphis (Nov. 7), Navy at Notre Dame (Nov. 8), Boise State at San Diego State (Nov. 15), Memphis at East Carolina (Nov. 15), Notre Dame at Pittsburgh (Nov. 15), South Florida at Navy (Nov. 15), Navy at Memphis (Nov. 28), Troy at Southern Miss (Nov. 29)
Have any questions, ideas, article pitches, or information? With the new Substack features, you can directly message me! Hit the button below to send me a message, or reach out via email to griffin@sid-sports.com, or find us on your favorite social media platform like Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, Substack Notes and Bluesky.