Heading into the final third of the season, we’re supposed to have a clearer picture of the playoff each week, right?
Week Nine missed the memo.
There were some great games for sure, but a large combination of bye weeks and expected results haven’t changed much of the playoff picture. The scene is still a mess overall. And that’s what we want, right? Complete and utter chaos leading to the end of the season.
At this point, I’m still harboring some hope for a lot of teams. We’ll see more get dropped off in the coming weeks, but the picture is still wide open in every conference. And even though they don’t have much bearing on the playoff picture, the MAC and CUSA conference championship races are going to be electric.
As always, here’s the current playoff format:
Five highest ranked conference champions. Note these do not have to be the Power Four and one Group of Five. These are just the flat five best.
Seven at-large teams as determined by CFP rankings.
Seeding is done straight, so the top four ranked teams get bye weeks. This is the big change from last year.
With that said, here’s how the bracket currently stands with my Week 10 rankings:
That’s where the picture stands for now, but there’s plenty of football left. Let’s get into the conference races.
ACC
In Right Now: Georgia Tech*, Miami
In The Hunt: Duke, Louisville, Pittsburgh, SMU, Virginia
Pray for Chaos: California, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Welcome Miami, as the ACC is now a two-bid league.
As it looks now, Georgia Tech and Virginia are the two teams undefeated in conference. The Yellow Jackets have played great ball all year, so are in the dance right now. Virginia, as I noted in my rankings this past week, is riding a hot streak with three straight one-score wins, two of them coming in overtime. What’s more concerning is they’ve found no difference between good teams (Louisville) and bad teams (North Carolina).
This race is still wide open, though. Duke, Louisville, Pittsburgh and SMU all only have one loss in the league, along with Miami. Duke will play Virginia. Louisville will see SMU. Pittsburgh gets both Georgia Tech and Miami. SMU faces Miami and Louisville. The race will clear itself up, but if Georgia Tech or Virginia slips, the race for the championship game is going to devolve into a tiebreaker-filled atrocity.
And that’s not considering any of the two-loss teams. California, Virginia Tech and Wake Forest are on life support, and can still conceivably make a run if they win out and get a ton of help. The Hokies likely don’t make a run without a full-time head coach, but have three of their last four games coming against teams ahead of them in the conference standings. California and Jaron Keawe-Sagapolutele are probably the best bets of the bunch. Their remaining schedule consists of Virginia, at Louisville, at Stanford, and SMU. That’s do-able, as much as a chaos reigns scenario goes.
Biggest Remaining Games: Miami at SMU (Nov. 1), Virginia at Duke (Nov. 15), Georgia Tech at Pittsburgh (Nov. 22), Louisville at SMU (Nov. 22), Georgia Tech at Georgia (Nov. 28), Miami at Pittsburgh (Nov. 29)
Big Ten
In Right Now: Indiana*, Ohio State, Oregon
In The Hunt: Iowa, Michigan, USC
Pray for Chaos: Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, UCLA, Washington
No more cannibalization in the Big Ten, as the top three elite teams aren’t going to face each other until the conference championship game. They’re all but locked in for a playoff spot, complete meltdowns nonwithstanding.
So that leaves us with the one-loss, non-Oregon teams. USC is the closest, clocking in just outside the race at 14th in my latest rankings. They have a manageable schedule and potential playoff entry game against Oregon in November. Michigan has the same against Ohio State in The Game. Iowa gets both USC and Oregon, and after playing Indiana the toughest so far and getting the offense rolling, the Hawkeyes are dark horses to make a run. But, Ohio State and Indiana are likely heading to Indianapolis unbeaten so an at-large bid is the best these teams can get, most likely.
Our agents of chaos all have two losses. Another kills the dream. Each one has at least one game against a team currently in the playoff prediction. They all need to win out and get some help. That’s a tall task, especially for teams like Minnesota, Northwestern and UCLA that are just happy to be here.
Biggest Remaining Games: Northwestern at USC (Nov. 7), Oregon at Iowa (Nov. 8), Iowa at USC (Nov. 15), USC at Oregon (Nov. 22), Ohio State at Michigan (Nov. 29)
Big 12
In Right Now: BYU*
In The Hunt: Cincinnati, Houston, Texas Tech
Pray for Chaos: Arizona State, Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, TCU, Utah
With BYU still unbeaten and rolling, the Big 12 remains a one-bid league.
Cincinnati is also unbeaten, but ranked lower due to a light resume. Texas Tech at 13 in my latest rankings could crash the party as an at-large team, but a conference championship is the easiest path. Houston, surprisingly, emphatically entered the picture with their win over Arizona State. The Cougars are 7-1 and have a weak schedule to close out the season. If they get lucky and teams in this tier start losing, Houston could make a surprise run.
But you can never discount the chaos tier, especially in this league. All these teams have two or three losses. Normally, three conference losses would disqualify a team, but the Big 12 is so tight and so many of these teams will play each other and ones ahead of them, really anything can happen. Winning out is paramount, and the conference will cannibalize itself in the coming weeks. But there are talented teams like Arizona State, Baylor, TCU and Utah that, if they get or stay healthy and get hot, could make serious noise.
The Big 12 is going to be must-watch football down the stretch.
Biggest Games Remaining: Cincinnati at Utah (Nov. 1), Texas Tech at Kansas State (Nov. 1), BYU at Texas Tech (Nov. 8), TCU at BYU (Nov. 15), BYU at Cincinnati (Nov. 22), TCU at Houston (Nov. 22), Cincinnati at TCU (Nov. 29), Houston at Baylor (Nov. 29)
SEC
In Right Now: Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Texas A&M*, Vanderbilt
In The Hunt: Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas
Pray for Chaos: Missouri
The five teams in the playoff haven’t changed one bit. In fact, Ole Miss, Texas A&M and Vanderbilt certified their places with ranked wins last week.
Oklahoma and Tennessee are probably the two most set up for a run if they can net big wins. They’re relatively healthy, especially under center, and are stocked full of big-play potential on both sides of the ball. But, both have serious defensive concerns as we’ve seen in their games against currently playoff-bound foes.
Missouri and Texas are still technically in the race, but injuries to their quarterbacks make this difficult. For Missouri, they’re down to third-string true freshman Mason Zollers after season-ending injuries to both Beau Pribula and Sam Horn. But, Zollers played well against Vanderbilt considering the circumstances and might be able to do enough to keep Missouri relevant. Texas is less dire with Arch Manning in concussion protocol, but Manning hasn’t been that effective this year. Still, with one loss in the conference, Texas has a shot to revive this season.
Biggest Games Remaining: Vanderbilt at Texas (Nov. 1), Texas A&M at Missouri (Nov. 8), Oklahoma at Alabama (Nov. 15), Texas vs. Georgia (Nov. 15), Oklahoma at Missouri (Nov. 22), Texas A&M at Texas (Nov. 28), Georgia Tech at Georgia (Nov. 28), Vanderbilt at Tennessee (Nov. 29)
Group of Six/Independent
In Right Now: Notre Dame, Memphis*
In The Hunt: James Madison*, Navy, South Florida, Tulane
Pray for Chaos: Boise State*, San Diego State, Southern Miss, Troy, UNLV
Notre Dame stays in after their bye week. Memphis jumps in after beating South Florida.
The American race is still likely to decide things. Memphis gets the edge with their win over the Bulls, but the top four American teams fell in the 23-28 range in my latest rankings. This is a tight race and every game matters.
If the American teams cannibalize and split wins all over, James Madison is primed to take over the playoff bid from the Sun Belt. They’ve handled most of the competition in-conference and gave Louisville a run for their money, so the Dukes aren’t a bad option.
But there’s more room for chaos. Again, if we assume chaos in the American, JMU might not be the only option. The Mountain West champion - Boise State, San Diego State or UNLV - could slide in. Boise has two losses, including one to USF, so may be out. But SDSU and UNLV are playing well and can capitalize if Boise stutters. James Madison has a stranglehold on the Sun Belt’s East division, but either Southern Miss or Troy are bets to come out of the West. Following the same formula for the Mountain West, a win in the Sun Belt Championship could get either team into the playoffs.
Biggest Games Remaining: Tulane at Memphis (Nov. 7), Navy at Notre Dame (Nov. 8), Boise State at San Diego State (Nov. 15), Notre Dame at Pittsburgh (Nov. 15), South Florida at Navy (Nov. 15), Navy at Memphis (Nov. 28), Troy at Southern Miss (Nov. 29)
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