2024 Games of the Slot: Conference Championships
Breaking down each and every FBS conference championship game
Conference championship week is finally upon us, and it’s about time to hand out some hardware!
This week’s article is a little different because I’m breaking down each and every conference championship game! It’ll still be formatted by timeslots, so you’ll know when to watch, but we’re going to talk about all nine tilts this weekend.
So, let’s get into it!
Friday Night
CUSA Championship: Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State (7 p.m., CBS Sports Network)
We’ll kick off the Conference Championship season with the wildest schematic difference of the entire weekend here in Conference USA. It’s also a rematch of a game from just last weekend.
Western Kentucky will be the road team here, coming in at 8-4 overall and 6-2 in-conference. The Hilltoppers came out on top in a 19-17 win last week in Bowling Green and are riding high. They’re going to air the ball out, as every Tyson Helton coached team does. Quarterback Caden Veltkamp couldn’t quite get going, though, completing only 28 of his 41 attempts for a 26.4 QBR. Instead, the Hilltoppers relied on sophomore kicker Lucas Carniero, who was a perfect four-for-four on the game, including a 50-yarder to ice it as time expired. While that’s a great story, the Hilltoppers cannot rely on their special teams to bail them out a second week in a row.
Jacksonville State, however, has revenge on the mind. The Gamecocks, led by veteran head coach Rich Rodriguez, had fired off eight consecutive wins before falling to Western Kentucky last week. They’re a run-heavy team, attempting only 17 passes in last week’s contest. Their defense has been a bit suspect all season, but kept Veltkamp and the Hilltopper passing attack in check last week. If the Gamecocks are going to win, that’s step one. Step two is getting starting quarterback Tyler Huff back and healthy.
Mountain West Championship: 18 UNLV at 9 Boise State (8 p.m., FOX)
If you’re looking for one game that will be the best of the bunch on Friday night, this is it. In fact, this is a playoff play-in game.
These two programs faced off earlier in the season and UNLV gave Boise State their best. The Runnin’ Rebels stymied Ashton Jeanty - well, as well as you can stymie him, which means 128 yards and a touchdown - while enforcing their own powerful running game. If you haven’t watched it yet, offensive coordinator Brennan Marion’s Go-Go Offense is a treat and quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams has gotten stronger each game. If UNLV wants to win this, their hope is to keep the ball out of Jeanty’s hands. That means both stacking the box and forcing Maddux Madsen to throw as well as putting together long, grinding drives behind their own running game.
But Boise State has faced that same gameplan all season and come out unscathed aside from a narrow loss to Oregon. We’ve talked a lot about Jeanty and the fact that his yards after contact total alone ranks second in the nation in rushing behind only his own total. Let’s instead inspect the other parts of Boise State. Maddux Madsen has done exactly what was expected of him this season, throwing for 2,556 yards with a 21:3 touchdown to interception ratio and a 72.9 QBR that ranks 28th in the nation. If UNLV wants to stack the box, Madsen is more than capable of winning this game himself. But the Boise State defense is also stout, allowing only 106.6 rushing yards per game and ranking 17th in the nation. That matches up well against a much more shaky UNLV passing offense.
This one, like their last affair, will be close. You’ll definitely want to tune in.
American Conference Championship: Tulane at 23 Army (8 p.m., ABC)
If you’re tired of regular season rematches, Tulane at Army is not one. So there’s that.
Again, this game pits two strong rushing units against each other. Tulane, though, has the defense to stand up to the task. The Green Wave are a legit unit, allowing only 18.4 points per game, which is tied for 15th in the nation. Against the run, Tulane lets up only 123.5 yards per game, ranking 34th in the nation. But this team isn’t only defense. The offense is also potent, led by the one-two punch of dual threat quarterback Dairan Mensah and tailback Makhi Hughes. They’re a run first team that can punish Army if they want, but Mensah can also throw the ball like no other. I think Tulane matches up well against the Army defense and should score a decent amount of points.
But Army can also score too, despite being a triple-option squad. Quarterback Bryson Daily is having one of the best service academy quarterback seasons this side of Keenan Reynolds with 1,348 yards and 25 scores on the ground plus another eight passing touchdowns. He’s a near impossibility to contain, even if he’s going against a strong Jon Sumrall-led Green Wave defense. Army’s defense is no slouch either, allowing only 15.1 points per game this season.
The running game will be strong here, but I think Tulane is just a better matchup on paper. Either way, this will be a tight game that may come down to which defense slips up.
Saturday - 12 p.m. EST
Big 12 Championship: 13 Iowa State v. 12 Arizona State (ABC)
How’s another play-in game sound? The winner here is in the Playoff, the loser relegated to Bowl season. A bye isn’t really in reach unless Boise State loses, but don’t let that dissuade these two teams.
Iowa State looked like they belonged all season until they slipped up against Texas Tech and a red hot Kansas. The offense has been shaky all season, but that’s not on Rocco Becht, who has thrown for over 3,000 yards and 20 touchdowns, but his eight picks have come back to bite the Cyclones. He’s got two legit NFL wideouts in Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel that win on paper against the Sun Devil secondary. But the star of the show in Ames is the Iowa State defense. They’re only allowing 19.6 points per game, but that’s skewed in both directions with a host of shutouts and one-score allowed games mixed in with some real shootouts. I think the Cyclone defense has found its sea legs after letting Kansas do whatever they wanted and they’ll need that strength against Arizona State.
The Sun Devils will rely on perhaps the nation’s most underrated tailback in Cam Skattebo, who has 1,398 yards and 17 scores on the season. He slumped a bit towards the middle of the schedule, but has come back with a vengeance the past few weeks. Paired with another underrated player in quarterback Sam Leavitt, you get a surprisingly potent Arizona State offense. One problem, though: star wideout Jordyn Tyson had his season end. Who steps up in place of the 1,000 yard receiver? Xavier Guillory seems to be the next man up, but he has only 17 catches on the season, while Tyson hauled in 75. It’s hard to replace someone that accounted for that much passing production come conference championship time, but Kenny Dillingham will have to get it figured out.
MAC Championship: Ohio v. Miami (OH) (ESPN)
This game might not have any playoff implications, but you’d miss out on some wonderful MACtion in Detroit.
Believe it or not, throug the Frank Solich and Tim Albin eras, Ohio has never won a MAC Championship game. Crazy, right? Now’s the time to change that. The Bobcats are firing on all cylinders since their loss to Miami in October, winning their next five games by a combined score of 189-45 behind a strong rushing attack and stout defense. That’s been the name of the game in the Albin era and, despite losing Kurtis Rourke to the portal, the Bobcats have perfected it this season. Anthony Tyus III and quarterback Parker Navarro are both closing in on 1,000 yard rushing seasons and Navarro is just shy of 2,000 passing yards this season, though he is dead even at 10 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Coupled with a defense that allows only 18.7 points per game and you get a vastly improved team since these two programs last met.
Miami, though, may be even hotter than Ohio. The RedHawks have won seven straight after a 1-3 start and took out Bowling Green last weekend in a do-or-die game. Quarterback Brett Gabbert has gotten better each week and tailback Keyon Mozee ran wild on a strong Bowling Green defense last week. Chuck Martin always has his squad ready to go, especially on defense where Miami is posting an even better mark than Ohio with 17.3 points allowed per game. Miami tends to limit the turnovers, though, with a +0.3 per game turnover differential compared to Ohio’s +0.1. That may be the difference in this matchup.
Wondering where these rankings are coming from? Check out this week’s SID Sports Top 25 and Players of the Week!
3-4 p.m. EST
SEC Championship: 6 Georgia v. 3 Texas (ABC)
It’s a big time rematch down south as Georgia tries to prove they belong in the contender tier and Texas tries to be the first team since the SEC’s founding to win the conference their first year as a member.
When these two programs last met, Georgia was able to assert their dominance in the trenches and run away with the game despite some turnovers from Carson Beck. The good news for the Dawgs is that Beck has looked much better down the stretch. It’s almost like he’s the quarterback we all assumed he would be leading up to this season. The bad news is, without a running game that can be relied on, that’s a double-edged sword. Georgia’s defense has shown it can shut down the Texas offense, but what if Georgia’s offense can’t keep up? That would fall squarely on Beck’s shoulders.
For Texas, the Georgia game was really the start of the narrative about the Longhorns being unable to win in the trenches. The past three weeks against solid front sevens in Arkansas, Kentucky and one of the nation’s best in Texas A&M, that narrative was proved wrong. The Longhorns have asserted their will on each opposing front on both the offensive and defensive sides of the ball. Even with Quinn Ewers still nursing an ankle injury, the Longhorn offense has found its footing in the run game and established some pressure defensively. Will that major change be enough to correct what went wrong in Austin?
6-8 p.m. EST
Sun Belt Championship: Marshall at Louisiana (7:30 p.m., ESPN)
It may not be the most heralded game of the week, but I still think this one will be a lot of fun. It is, after all, the Fun Belt Championship.
Marshall’s won six straght games to capture the Sun Belt East title behind, you guessed it, a strong and varied running game. The Thundering Herd are thundering past opposing front sevens to the tune of 200.4 rushing yards per game - 19th in the nation. Five Marshall players are over the 200 rushing yards mark and four have multiple rushing scores. Even with three quarterbacks seeing time - Braylon Braxton is the best of the bunch and current starter - this Marshall offense has been high quality the entire season. The defense, though, is the weak point here. They’re not bad, just firmly middle of the road. They do force a solid amount of turnovers, though.
Louisiana was a sneaky Playoff pick for a while, but that all was derailed with a loss to South Alabama. The Ragin’ Cajuns (can we take a second to admire this name matchup. Thundering Herd agains the Ragin’ Cajuns? Does it get better than that?), like Marshall, are a bit of an all gas, no brakes team. They’re Top 50 in both passing and rushing offense while super-senior quarterback Ben Wooldridge ranks 24st in the nation in QBR. Louisiana, unlike Marshall, has a solid Group of Five defense, allowing only 22.8 points per game this season.
Big Ten Championship: 4 Penn State v. 1 Oregon (8 p.m., CBS)
It’s not the rematch we expected, but boy am I happy with this.
Penn State, as friend of the newsletter
pointed out on Yardbarker this week, couldn’t have higher stakes. I’ll let you read the recap of the Franklin era from Colin, but it’s do or die time in Happy Valley. This team was assembled for this purpose: competing for a Big Ten title and playoff berth. But can they show up for a big game? I have no doubts the defense will, as they have all season. The offense is another story. Andy Kotelnicki was brought in to win games like this and get Drew Allar prepared. It didn’t work against Ohio State. Will they be ready for Oregon.They’ll have to be, because there are few coaches more talented at getting their teams ready than Dan Lanning. Oregon is the only team left unblemished this season and are looking to take home the Big Ten title in their first season in the league. The Ducks are elite on both sides of the ball, with Dillon Gabriel piloting an offense averaging 35.3 points per game and Matayo Uiagalelei anchoring a defense that allows only 16.2 points per game. With Tez Johnson healthy again and the entire Oregon team more or less healthy, they have the feeling of a team of destiny. That’ll be put to the test in what may turn out to be a defensive struggle.
ACC Championship: 19 Clemson v. 7 SMU (8 p.m., ABC)
The final game is perhaps the most interesting one to me. On one side, we have a disappointing team that’s looking to erase the bad memories of a season in Clemson. On the other, we have SMU who is forgoing their media rights and kicking the conference the entire way.
Clemson has, as I’ve said many times here, had a Jekyll and Hyde season. That continued last week when the offense outside of Cade Klubnik elected to not play their best at the Palmetto Bowl. Clemson collected their third loss and was all but done until a Syracuse upset over Miami put the Tigers here. So thanks for that, Syracuse. That doesn’t mean the pressure is off, though. That pressure is starting to mount in Clemson around Dabo Swinney and especially around the duo of offensive coordinator Garrett Riley and Klubnik. It’s time for them to prove they belong.
SMU has proved that all season, from a wild two-quarterback scheme in the first few weeks of the season all the way until here. The Ponies, coached by Rhett Lashlee, have done an outstanding job staying balanced. It’s not just the passing game that got SMU here. In fact, offensively, I’d say tailback Brashard Smith had more of an impact than Kevin Jennings and the passing game. And I’d say the defense did that even more. This is a complete team from top to bottom. They’re fifth in the nation in scoring offense (39.2 points per game) and 19th in scoring defense (19.8 points per game). Clemson may have the brand recognition here from the Trevor Lawrence days, but SMU is the better program on paper.
What I’m Reading:
: Three-Point Stance is your favorite independent college football newsletter. Come for in-depth analysis and bold commentary, stay for the jokes and memes. An idea hatched after years of 12-hour days glued to the couch, Tyler Schuster puts his passion for the sport on full display, delivering big-picture ideas, weekly previews and gambling nuggets directly to your inbox.An idea hatched after years of 12-hour days glued to the couch, Tyler Schuster puts his passion for the sport on full display, delivering big-picture ideas, weekly previews and gambling nuggets directly to your inbox.
by , , and : I’ll be a little selfish on this one and plug a great college football podcast that I was lucky enough to join a few weeks back to talk UEC and SID Sports! Brian, John and Gary are a ton of fun to listen to and break down the weekend to come in a very easy to digest and entertaining way. Be sure to tune into the Tailgators' Setup podcast and subscribe for more great content from them!, , and : You can't beat Alex, Richard and Godfrey. They're on the front lines breaking news and creating the best content in the game. I 100 percent recommend SZD for anyone into college football and Steven Godfrey hating your team. They’re mostly a podcast publication, but sometimes being able to listen to three well-informed guys talking about college football is what you need in your life.Have any questions, ideas, article pitches, or information? With the new Substack features, you can directly message me! Hit the button below to send me a message, or reach out via email to sidsports23@gmail.com, or find us on your favorite social media platform like Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, Substack Notes and Bluesky.
All of these rematches do make me ache for the days of divisions a little bit. I don't know why in 13 regular season games (if all this buzz about Alabama over SMU if they lose is correct, then conference championships are nothing more than regular season games) that two of them have to be the same, but I guess this is what we've got now, and we have to deal with it.
One hypothetical Griffin. Let's use your rankings for this, because I know the real committee is hopelessly biased against the G5. You say that the MWC championship game is a playoff play-in, but is it? I'm not quite sure I'd go that far. It absolutely is for UNLV, but let's say Boise loses a barn burner. That would leave them with two one-score losses against No. 1 Oregon and likely a 13-15 UNLV, in a fight for the last playoff spot with South Carolina, who has a loss to a ranked only by default LSU, and a humiliation against Mississippi.
Once again, the real committee would never ever allow Boise to win a fight over Alabama, because ESPN wouldn't allow it, but where we're living and actual performance matters a bit more, we've talked a lot about my aversion to multiple possession losses. I would still take Boise to my playoff over South Carolina, even in the event of a loss, on the condition that it's close, and on the condition that this fight doesn't get muddled by including SMU in it also.
If that fight were between Boise and Alabama or Miami (neither of whom have any multiple possession losses) it could be a different story, but I'm not here to debate that ranking. I just think that there may possibly be a circumstance where Boise could be in even with a loss, in our Substack world that is not corrupted by powerful TV networks.
Thanks for the shoutout, friend!