2024 Conference Preview: Mountain West
What does our only remaining FBS west coast conference have in store in 2024?
The PAC-12 is no more, which makes the Mountain West the premier west coast athletic conference. Huh?
You read that right. The west coast runs through the Mountain West. And the Big 10. And the Big 12. And the ACC - you know what, you get the point. But, the Mountain West is the only conference that has its entire membership west of the Mississippi, which has to count for something, right?
But what does that mean? Does that make the Mountain West the spiritual successor to PAC-12 After Dark? Let’s find out!
As a note, I’m including Oregon State and Washington State here based on their scheduling agreement. That’s obviously subject to change for future years, but they seem like they have a home here right now.
Crème de la crème
I think the Mountain West has some legitimate shots at the playoff this year. In my eyes, the conference champion here could have one of the better records and resumes of any Group of Five champion, which is an automatic bid for the fifth conference champion spot in the new 12-team playoff.
To me, the favorite here is Boise State. The Broncos are among the most talented Group of Five teams across the nation and who can argue with the blue field? With a strong defense leading the way that returns 82 percent of last year’s production (tied for sixth in the nation), the offense is the story in Boise, Idaho. They generated a lot of waves with the signing of five-start transfer Malachi Nelson from USC, but the Day 1 starter will be Maddux Madsen, who beat out now-Arkansas starting quarterback Taylen Green last season before going down with an injury. Madsen has a better grasp of the Dirk Koetter NFL-styled offense, which is why he gets the nod over the raw Nelson. Plus, the quarterback doesn’t matter as much when tailback Ashton Jeanty may be the best player in the conference.
Boise has some serious competition in the form of Fresno State, though. They were downright lethal on offense last season before quarterback Mikey Keene dealt with some injuries. Keene is back and healthy and the Bulldogs are ready to pounce in 2024. Head coach Jeff Tedford is out after stepping down with health concerns, but the program is in good hands in assistant head coach Tim Skipper. Playcalling remains with offensive coordinator Pat McCann, so I don’t envision much change from last season. As long as Keene is healthy, look out for Fresno State to make a run.
Let’s make a run, shall we?
Just like any Group of Five conference, there’s a ton of opportunities for teams to jump one of the top programs for a title bid in the Mountain West. It’s not as close as, say, the MAC, but it’s still pretty close.
Colorado State may be the surprise here, but the Rams are cooking up something special. Just like it took time for Mike Norvell to get his program ready to go at Florida State, the Norvell running Colorado State (somehow, no relation between the two) has his program hitting the ground running after a few years. We’ll keep an eye on the connection between quarterback Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi and wideout Tory Horton. Horton is the best wideout by far in the conference and Fowler-Nicolosi is no slouch himself. The Rams saw team-wide success as the season went on, but is that sustainable in a new season? Neither SP+ or FPI is high on Colorado State, but I think their offense has enough stuff to surprise a lot of teams, especially in conference.
UNLV relied heavily on quarterback Jayden Maiava, but he’s since transferred to USC. Instead, the Rebs will turn to one of two FCS transfers in Hajj-Malik Williams (Campbell) or Matt Skula (Holy Cross). Both are built for the pedal-to-the-metal offense that the Rebs run under offensive coordinator Brennan Marion. I’m not worried about the offense. Instead, it’s the defense that will hold this team back. That was their kryptonite in 2023. We’ll have to see how head coach Barry Odom’s defense works, but it’ll start and end with ESPN’s X-factor edge rusher Antonio Doyle Jr. The former top-100 recruit has the makings of an elite pass rusher and tore up the SWAC at Jackson State. But does that translate to the Mountain West in his one year of eligibility?
We make our first stop in the decrepit home of the PAC-2 with Washington State. First off, they’re clearly in a different conference than the rest, so their run would be to a postseason bid. That gets more complicated as the PAC-12 will retain the bowl bids for their departing schools in 2024, as reported by Action Network’s Brett McMurphy. But Washington State has a chance. They, like UNLV, turn to an FCS transfer under center in Bryant transfer Zevi Eckhaus. He gets the keys to a race car that posted a top-five passing attack under another former FCS transfer Cam Ward. It’s a lot to ask Eckhaus to replicate that, but if he can give even three quarters of Ward’s production, Ol’ Crimson could be flying for a bowl game.
Returning to the actual Mountain West, we have what could be as under the radar of a contender as you can get in Wyoming. The Cowboys are going through a coaching change after the retirement of Craig Bohl, but the promotion of defensive coordinator Jay Sawvel kept most of the Cowboys’ roster intact. They’ve got a potential budding star under center in quarterback Evan Svoboda, who is entering his first season as the starter. He had limited action last season, but looked good. He may draw comparisons to Josh Allen because of his pro-sized frame and playing at Wyoming, but he’s got an electric arm. Svoboda has room to grow, as well, as Wyoming is going to lean on its defense and the run game. If the talented junior is able to show out, the Cowboys could sneak their way into the conference title match-up.
They are who we think they are
As we’ve already established with the other Group of Five conferences we’ve covered, there’s a lot of parity in these leagues. And in that parity, there’s a lot of change. Whether that’s coaching cycling from the carousel or players constantly looking to transfer in and out, things don’t often stay the same at the Group of Five level. But there are a few programs like that in the Mountain West.
There’s rarely any programs across the nation that can achieve the stability that a service academy can. We can see that in Air Force. But why are they here, instead of a tier or two higher? Well, because they can’t seem to cross that hump. Sure, they’ve notched four bowl bids - all wins - in five seasons, but there’s no Mountain West glory to show. Either way, the Falcons are going to run the same service academy triple option scheme that we’ve all come to know and love. They’ve got an option maestro in Zac Larrier making the reads and the Falcons always enjoy a strong defense. Part of that is due to ball control on the offensive side, but they’ve put in the extra work to be a strong unit. Expect Air Force to come up just short of a conference title bid, but finish right around 10 wins.
Hawaii, on the other hand, is in a much different spot. They’re in Year 2 of the Timmy Chang era, so how do we know who they are? Because Chang is a disciple of the June Jones run and shoot teams that propelled the late great Colt Brennan into college football lore. This is a fun Rainbow Warrior team that you should enjoy watching. The only problem is they’re not quite there yet. They’re still searching for their Brennan, but that’s not a bad thing. Brayden Schrager may be that guy after over 3,500 passing yards last season and he has a legitimate threat in wideout Steven McBride, who hauled in nine scores and topped the 1,000 yard mark. If you envision Hawaii, you know how this team operates, even though they’re under new management. Just don’t expect too many results yet. Give them a few years to get their sea legs.
Starting from scratch
Just like every Group of Five conference we’ve taken a look at, there’s been a lot of upheaval in the Mountain West. Even moreso if we add in the remnants of the PAC-12.
Nevada is among the bottom-tier teams here, ranked as the second-worst team in the conference by both FPI and SP+. Their returning production slots the Wolfpack in the middle of the nation, so I could see some improvement from the preseason predictions. That’s particularly impressive considering Nevada is going through a coaching change with Jeff Choate taking the reigns. Choate has some coaching bonafides as defensive coordinator at Texas since 2021 and head coach at FCS powerhouse Montana State from 2016-19. This is a program that’s going to take a while to build, but Choate is leaning into a defense first approach that is the antithesis to a lot of these Mountain West programs.
New Mexico is in one of the most dire spots across the nation. They have little to no returning production (ranking 123rd) and slot near the bottom across the nation in both FPI (117) and SP+ (129). But, I’m not going to doom and gloom too much here. Instead, let’s focus on the positive side of this. First off, the Lobos tabbed Bronco Mendenhall, a noted program builder, to right the ship. Mendenhall’s taken a few years off since his stint in Virginia, but he has a ton of experience with some of the teams’ best seasons at both Virginia and BYU. He has a 60 percent winning percentage and 135 total wins. The guy is a coaching legend. He just needs time in Albuquerque to build a program. Give him some because it’s not happening Year 1.
Let’s depart to the PAC-12 with the program I feel the most bad about in Oregon State. The Beavers were just turning it around, had a stud alumnus leading the program and were looking to compete in the PAC-12. Then, the bomb went off and they were left on Ground Zero with Washington State. The Beavers got torched in the offseason, as the alumnus Johnathan Smith left to lead Michigan State and took a bevy of coaches and players along with him, including quarterback heir-apparent Aidan Chiles. The Beavers clock in at 132 of 134 in returning production. They still have a chance to be solid, but this is a ragtag group of vagabonds without a home. That’s dangerous for a lot of teams.
Back in the actual Mountain West, San Diego State has one of my favorite hires in the entire cycle in snagging Sean Lewis from Colorado. Lewis is one of the best football masterminds out there and his up-tempo offense is hard to contain when he has the right players. We saw that in the first half of the season at Colorado when Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter were lighting up the scoreboard. His teams at Kent State had a ton of flair too. The only problem is San Diego State was built for the pro-style Brady Hoke offense. There’s not a ton of overlap, which is why Lewis is going to have to start from scratch. Keep an eye on Ball State transfer Marquez Cooper who can be the explosive tailback Lewis’s systems like to lean on.
San Diego State’s rivals San Jose State are also in an upheaval after head coach Brent Brennan was plucked away by Arizona. The Spartans are turning to one of the best leaders in college football, Ken Niumatalolo, the winningest coach in the history of the U.S. Naval Academy. Niumatalolo is a CEO coach and has stated outright that this isn’t a triple option scheme. Instead, he hired Craig Stutzman from Texas State to run a “spread and shred” offense that couldn’t look more different than what was seen at Navy. There’s a three way quarterback battle still unresolved in San Jose and not a wealth of high-caliber playmakers. I think Niumatalolo can get the Spartans going quickly, but it’ll be an adjustment for everyone involved.
It seems like each offseason since SID Sports was born, a major coaching scandal rocks a team just before the season starts. Last year was Northwestern, and this year is Utah State. The Aggies terminated the contract of head coach Blake Anderson following an external Title IX investigation into the program. In Anderson’s stead, defensive coordinator Nate Dreiling was named interim head coach. Both FPI and SP+ aren’t high on the Aggies, especially after a last minute coaching change. Even before that, the Aggies ranked 93rd in returning production. After a 6-7 season, that doesn’t bode well for 2024. They will turn to Utah’s savior last year in noted pig farmer Bryson Barnes, which could help raise the ceiling on a lackluster 2024.
Additional Reading:
Battling to bowl
Like with the MAC and other conferences before it, these Group of Five schools don’t really get stuck in a battling to bowl situation. They filter through coaches and most often land in the starting from scratch tier.
In the Mountain West, I don’t think there’s any teams in this tier. With that said, most of the “Starting From Scratch” teams are going to be clawing for a shot at a bowl bid. There’s just been a lot of turnover in this conference.
So there you have it. The Mountain West broken down as best as possible for 2024. Who do you think wins it? I think this is a conference with a legit playoff contender in Boise State, but can they make it to the dance or is someone else going to claim the final conference champion spot? Let me know in the comments below! And let me know
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I hope your conference in CSU works out! My buddy teaches there. He said there were some good vibes last season!