2024 College Football Playoff Previews: Quarterfinals
Breaking down the four Quarterfinal games in the first 12-team Playoff
The first round of the inaugural 12-team playoff has come and gone without much fanfare. Well, there was plenty of fanfare at the campus sites, but the games were all blowouts.
As a refresher, starting in this Quarterfinal round, games are heading to traditional New Years’ Six Bowl sites. The campus sites are only for the first round.
Enough with the chatter, though. It’s time to dive into the games. As always, all times are in Eastern.
Friday Night
6 Penn State vs. 3 Boise State (7:30 p.m., ESPN - at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl)
We head to neutral sites with the first game on New Years’ Eve a place where both teams are comfortable.
Penn State enters the game 7-0 all-time in the Fiesta Bowl and fresh off a dominating 38-10 win over SMU in the Opening Round. The game was never in doubt, as the Nittany Lion defense suffocated the Mustang offense and forced quarterback Kevin Jennings into three interceptions. For Penn State, though, you still want to see more from the offense. Tyler Warren was quiet all day, with six touches for only 39 yards. Drew Allar was fine, I guess? At least the running game showed up, with Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen combining for 160 yards and three rushing scores, averaging 6.4 yards per carry. Boise State may be a Group of Five team, but they also took Oregon to the wire. If Penn State wants a repeat performance from last week, they’ll need Allar and the offense to step up.
Boise State is Fiesta Bowl royalty, the orginial BCS buster, the Group of Five team with a penchant for dethroning the sports’ blue bloods in this very game. They’re even wearing the same combination as they have in all three of their improbably Fiesta Bowl wins - blue helmets, white jerseys and orange pants. But one thing’s different than in years past - Ashton Jeanty. The star tailback is perhaps one of the best to ever grace college football. He’s impossible to bring down, with 1,889 of his 2,497 yards coming after contact, leading to a second-place Heisman finish. Group of Five team or not, Jeanty is someone that’s difficult to stop. He’s the focal point of the offense, but that doesn’t mean he’s the only weapon. Quarterback Maddux Madsen is a perfect fit for the offense, with a sterling 22 to 3 touchdown to intereception ratio and a 73.6 QBR that ranks 27th in the nation. If you remember right, Madsen didn’t play his best against Oregon, which contributed to the Broncos losing that game. He’s improved a ton since then. I would also be remiss to mention a strong defense, especially in the secondary. Let’s see if they can slow down the Penn State rushing attack, though.
The Vrbo Fiesta Bowl Champion will move onto the Capital One Orange Bowl against the winner of the Allstate Sugar Bowl (7 Notre Dame v. 2 Georgia).
Saturday - 1 p.m. ET
5 Texas vs. 4 Arizona State (ESPN - at the Chick-fil-a Peach Bowl)
Betting lines see this as a blowout, but I’m here to tell you that may not be the case.
Despite their lower seed - autobids for conference champions do that - Texas is the clear favorite here. Especially after a 38-24 win over Clemson last weekend in Austin. That game should serve as the road map for another Texas victory. The Longhorns didn’t pass the ball well - which is a worry, especially with how many injuries Quinn Ewers has dealt with this season - but the running game took over with 292 yards anf 6.1 yards per carry. I’ve said it all season and will maintain to say that, as long as Texas wins in the trenches, they can beat anyone. That includes an Arizona State team that isn’t known for their rushing defense. If Steve Sarkisian is able to get Jaydon Blue and Quintrevion Wisner going, then the Sun Devils could be in for a rough ride.
Arizona State is all but counted out here. The Sun Devils, along with Boise State, have become the poster child of the conversation surrounding the playoff structure going forward - conference champions shouldn’t get automatic byes, reseeding needs to happen. They have a chance to shut that all down right here. Arizona State earned their bid fair and square behind tailback Cam Skattebo, who would be a shoo in for the Doak Walker Award if one Ashton Jeanty didn’t also play this season. But you can’t discount the great play of quarterback Sam Leavitt. He’s got a Top 10 QBR according to ESPN at 81.6 - ranking ninth and ahead of Ewers’ 72.9. Especially after their 45-19 dismantling of Iowa State in the Big 12 Championship, the Arizona State offense can beat anyone. The only question is if the defense can keep Texas out of the endzone. To feel good about this game, Kenny Dillingham needs Leavitt and Skattebo firing on all cylinders immediately out of the gate. Otherwise, Texas may mount too big of a lead to come back from.
The Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl Champion will earn a bid to the Goodyear Cotton Bowl against the Rose Bowl, Presented by Prudential, winner (8 Ohio State v. 1 Oregon).
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4-5 p.m. ET
8 Ohio State v. 1 Oregon (5 p.m., ESPN - at the Rose Bowl Game, presented by Prudential)
In a world of realignment and brand consolidation, it’s nice to see a traditional Rose Bowl matchup between Ohio State and Oregon. It’s also a rematch after a thrilling 32-31 last-second Oregon win in Autzen Stadium in October.
Ohio State came up just seconds short last time these two programs met, so you know the Buckeyes can hang with the Ducks. There’s going to be a main difference for Ohio State, though. That’s offensive line depth. Ohio State lost starting offensive tackle Josh Simmons to a season-ending leg injury when these teams squared off last time and have since lost starting center Seth McLaughlin for the season with an Achilles injury. Oregon’s defensive line already put in work against Ohio State when they were at full strength. Can the Buckeyes hold firm without two of their best linemen? Add in special teams struggles, especially with kicker Jayden Fielding who really struggled against Michigan, and you get some serious Ohio State doubts. But what don’t I doubt? The Ohio State passing attack, for one. Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka have only gotten better and Will Howard is playing like Ohio State needs him to. I’m also not worried about the Buckeye defense. Jim Knowles is elite at adjusting between matchups and the Buckeyes just shut down a strong Tennessee offense.
Oregon is actually the underdog in this game, but I’m not sure why. The Ducks, after all, won the last game even if it was at home in Eugene. Oregon also has a major trench advantage with the aforementioned Ohio State injury issues and the Ducks having one of the conference’s best defensive linemen in Jordan Burch - who missed the October game - back and healthy again. Oregon’s offense has been almost unstoppable this season and with both Evan Stewart and Tez Johnson - who combined for 224 yards and two scores against the Ohio State secondary in October - rearing to go, the offense is ready to fire on the Buckeye secondary. My main concern for Oregon is if they can stick with Egbuka and Smith or if they can shut down the Ohio State passing attack. We saw against Michigan that if you can make the Buckeyes one-dimensional, you can chart some solid wins.
8 p.m. ET
7 Notre Dame v. 2 Georgia (8:45 p.m., ESPN - at the Allstate Sugar Bowl)
Our final Quarterfinal game is between two teams with serious defensive pedigree, but also serious offensive question marks.
The story of the Notre Dame season has been their loss to Northern Illinois, which is more and more inexplicable as each week passes and each dominant Irish win mounts. Notre Dame won the Indiana State Championship in the Opening Round, downing Indiana 27-17 to give Marcus Freeman his first ever playoff win. It was the same model you’d expect from this Notre Dame team: strong defense, strong running and timely passing from Riley Leonard. A stat that you shouldn’t overlook from the Fighting Irish’s first playoff win is the third down efficiency: Notre Dame was 7-for-13 on the day, while holding Indiana to a 4-for-12 mark. If the Irish repeat that performance, they’ll be in a very good spot in Atlanta. I expect Notre Dame to follow the same formula here: get Jeremiyah Love going early and let the defense cook against a Georgia offense with serious questions.
The main question for Georgia is the one dominiating the playoff discussion: Carson Beck is out with a UCL injury and Gunner Stockton is in. The backup has done fine in Beck’s stead, but now the ship is his. He did come off the bench in the SEC Championship against Texas and played admirably, going 12-of-16 through the air for 71 yards and an interception. Stockton hasn’t been the best passer in his limited action, so I would expect Georgia to lean on their running game. One problem: the Dawgs rank 100th in the nation in rushing yards per game with 129.2. Part of that comes from leading tailback Trevor Etienne missing five games with an ankle injury, and with Etienne healthy now, it may boost up the Georgia rushing game. But can they get the ground attack going against an elite Notre Dame defense? They may need to rely on Riley Leonard to try to gunslinger his way to victory and making some mistakes, which Kirby Smart has always had his teams capitalize on.
The Allstate Sugar Bowl Champion will move onto the Capital One Orange Bowl against the winner of the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl (6 Penn State v. 3 Boise State).
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