2024 College Football Playoff Previews: Round One
Breaking down the four First Round games in the first 12-team Playoff
Ladies and gentlemen, the 12-team playoff has arrived. With a field that everyone agrees is with the correct 12 teams, it’s time to crown a champion. Or, at least, start the process.
Before we get into this week’s games, let’s take a look at the entire bracket:
As a refresher, these first round games will be held at campus sights. And, honestly, could there be a better slate of campuses to host the first round? Playoff games at Ohio Stadium in Columbus, Darrel K. Royal Stadium in Austin, Notre Dame Stadium in South Bend and Beaver Stadium in College Park will be electric.
Enough with the chatter, though. It’s time to dive into the games. As always, all times are in Eastern.
Friday Night
10 Indiana at 7 Notre Dame (8 p.m., ABC/ESPN)
The 12-team playoff kicks off with an in-state battle that hasn’t been played since the 1950s. It also perfectly exemplifies the spirit of the expanded field: an up-and-coming surprising Indiana team that took the nation by storm against one of the most established blue bloods in Notre Dame.
Despite their surprising season, Indiana certainly belongs in this field. The Hoosiers are scoring champions, posting the second best scoring offense with 43.3 points per game and the sixth best scoring defense, allowing only 14.7 points per game. Sure, Indiana hasn’t played the quality of teams that many in this field have, but they’ve blown out everyone they’ve come across aside from Ohio State and Michigan. Detractors will point at the Ohio State game, saying that Curt Cignetti’s squad can’t hang with the big boys. However, that game changed on a dime due to special teams. I think Indiana can sure that aspect of the game up and really show out against Notre Dame. Their explosive offense did move the ball against Ohio State, after all.
But Notre Dame is a different beast, with what I believe is the nation’s top defense. The only problem is that the Fighting Irish have been shaky on offense. They’re an elite rushing offense, but can Riley Leonard sling it to keep up with Kurtis Rourke if he needs to? I don’t think the game will come to that, but it’s still a worry. In all reality, I think this game hinges on one matchup: the Notre Dame secondary against the Indiana passing attack. I’d give the edge to Notre Dame, who possess the third-best passing defense in the nation. They say that defense wins championships, after all, and Notre Dame’s squad certainly fits that bill.
The Champion of Indiana will travel south into hostile territory to take on Georgia in the Allstate Sugar Bowl.
Saturday - 12 p.m. ET
11 SMU at 6 Penn State (TNT/Max)
This game may end up being the most wild of the bunch just based on the volatility of both programs.
SMU won’t get a lot of credit - especially after their ACC Championship loss to Clemson - but they should. They actually match up incredibly well with Penn State on paper. The Mustangs have a fast, potent offense that can hurt you in the passing game with quarterback Kevin Jennings and in the rushing game with star tailback Brashard Smith. With the fifth scoring offense, posting 39.9 points per game, SMU can run the score up on Penn State quickly if they’re not careful. Perhaps more importantly, though, is that SMU has a really good defensive unit. Especially against the run, where the Mustangs rank seventh in the nation, allowing only 98.3 yards per game. Against a power-running team like Penn State, that staunch defense will go a long way. Ohio State showed the formula to beat this team: stop the run and force Drew Allar to keep up. Rhett Lashlee’s SMU program is built to do just that.
But Penn State has two things that SMU doesn’t - Tyler Warren and Abdul Carter. Both took home positional awards at the Substack Awards Show with Carter also claiming Co-Defensive Player of the Year. Both can take over a game unlike anyone on SMU’s roster. Warren will be the offensive threat that can confuse and misalign the Mustang defense to force some big plays. Carter is going to be the game wrecker on the defensive side, trying to make Jennings’ life harder. Penn State’s offense catches a lot of heat, but their defense is good enough to win them games. Especially if they can slow down the SMU offensive attack.
A trip to the desert in the VRBO Fiesta Bowl against No. 3 Boise State awaits the winner of this contest.
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3-4 p.m. ET
12 Clemson at 5 Texas (4 p.m., TNT/Max)
In a battle of two varying shades of orange, you get a true David against Goliath vibe.
This year, Clemson plays the role of David. The Tigers come in as the first three-loss playoff entrant after sniping a bid with their ACC Championship win over SMU. But Clemson hasn’t been great all season. In fact, they haven’t been deserving of a playoff spot until the very last week. The good news for Clemson faithful is that they’ve gotten hot at the right time and strung together some solid wins down the stretch - a Palmetto Bowl loss to South Carolina notwithstanding. Cade Klubnik is playing some of his best football in the Orange and White and Phil Mafah is continuing to run the ball well. The only problem? The usually solid Clemson defense has fallen off this year. Without a trench-dominating presence or an elite secondary man, can the Tigers contain the Longhorn offense?
In the heart of Matthew McConaughey and other non-famous Texas fans, the answer to that question is no. Especially with Quinn Ewers looking healthy and ready to sling it and a front seven on both sides of the ball that’s looked vastly improved. But there’s one pesky thing the Longhorns have going against them: they have one Top 25 win. That’s right, Texas has only faced two teams in the Top 25 heading into bowl season and that led to two disheartening losses to Georgia and an ugly win over Texas A&M that was as much the Aggies’ fault as it was Texas’s win. Sure, Clemson is the lowest-ranked team in the playoff, but they’re still a quality ranked team. Is Texas going to be able to get over that hump? If they are, it’ll start with establishing the run. If Quintrevion Wisner is able to get going, then the Longhorns are a good bet to take the game. If Clemson’s defense forces Texas to be one-dimensional, there may be some problems in Austin.
The winner of this game will head to the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl to take on No. 4 Arizona State.
8 p.m. ET
9 Tennessee at 8 Ohio State (8 p.m., ABC/ESPN)
There’s question marks aplenty in this game. But both teams have the talent to make deep runs, but the road starts here in Columbus.
Tennessee may be putting the cart ahead of the horse with talk already coming of a potential flag plant in the heart of Ohio Stadium following a Volunteer win - despite the asinine proposed bill to make that a Class 5 Felony in Ohio. If I was Josh Heupel and Tennessee, I’d focus a lot more in coming out hot than worrying about post-game celebrations. After all, slow starts have been Tennessee’s kryptonite this season. We’ve seen that come back to bite the Volunteers in big games against Georgia and Arkansas. If the Vols get their veer and shoot offense - which is unlike anything Ohio State’s seen this season - going, they could be dangerous. But I want to turn the attention to the game within the game that may decide who moves on: the trenches. Ohio State has struggled on the offensive line, losing two of their five starters to injury down the stretch. Look for Tennessee’s solid pass rush to try to take advantage of that depleted unit - especially James Pearce Jr. On the offensive side of the ball, Nico Iamaleava has to be consistent. He can’t miss against this talented Buckeye secondary because they’ll make him pay.
For Ohio State, the defensive game plan is simple: make Nico Iamaleava throw the ball more than he’s comfortable. The freshman has been good, but inconsistent all season. If Jim Knowles’ silver bullets can rattle him, the Tennessee offense will crumble. It’s the offensive side that worries me. Quarterback Will Howard looked like a lost man against Michigan and the two-headed monster of Treveyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins looked human. All of that combined to lead to perhaps the biggest upset in the history of The Game. Ryan Day and Chip Kelly, the offensive masterminds in Columbus, have vowed to improve the game plan, but I have my doubts. Like, if running the ball against Michigan when they have a porous secondary isn’t working, why did they continue to pound the rock ineffectively all game? They’ll face another solid front seven this week in Tennessee. Can Day and Kelly craft a game plan to get their playmaking receivers the ball. Can Howard execute it?
The winner of this one will move onto the Rose Bowl to face No. 1 Oregon.
What I’m Reading:
by Tyler Schuster: Three-Point Stance is your favorite independent college football newsletter. Come for in-depth analysis and bold commentary, stay for the jokes and memes. An idea hatched after years of 12-hour days glued to the couch, Tyler Schuster puts his passion for the sport on full display, delivering big-picture ideas, weekly previews and gambling nuggets directly to your inbox.An idea hatched after years of 12-hour days glued to the couch, Tyler Schuster puts his passion for the sport on full display, delivering big-picture ideas, weekly previews and gambling nuggets directly to your inbox.
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Sounds like you've almost talked yourself into SMU upsetting the Nittany Lions...